April 15th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I know some of you will be shaking your head at this, but we’ve had a heck of a run the last few days. We didn’t get any of the rain late last week and have missed the rains so far this week. I’m writing at 9 pm after working since 5 am as we’re trying to get the beans finished. We’ve no-tilled most of the beans this year. While we do several acres every year, we’ve done more than ever-with the topsoil dried out good, they’ve went in the ground about as good as I could have expected. We have rain in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, but it sure seems like we keep missing them. If we miss these, we’ll be planting corn by the end of the week. I’ve heard from many of you still sitting, so I hope your luck gets better. We were in those shoes a year ago. For on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn market hasn’t moved much on the week when looking at the closes, while beans have struggled. We’ve seen some life around energy prices rallying then falling back-so the grip of the geo-political situation is alive and well. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .255 at 97.908.
• May crude oil settled down 7.80 at 91.28.
• The DOW settled 330 90 points at 48,755.

Corn – The corn market showed solid gains both on Monday and Tuesday’s sessions before backing off a bit. On Tuesday, May corn closed up 2 ¾ at $4.43. This was 3 off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.782 mmt. This was less than a week ago but stilla big number. Shipments of corn are running over 34% ahead of last year while the USDA is forecasting around a 15% increase. While many are wondering why the corn market isn’t rallying with so many planters sitting, it’s a bit early for that. With 5% of the crop planted, it’s actually 1% ahead of the 5-year average. Where it will get interesting is if we get into May and start running behind a normal pace by any degree. The trade knows we can get this crop in the ground quickly, but with cold and wet conditions the farther north you go, I assume if this pattern holds, we’ll see some risk-premium come back in. For now, I like the fact that we’re above $4.70 after a lethargic last few sessions. It’s still better than many thought we’d see this marketing year, so it warrants attention if a grower can make these prices work. Dec26 corn settled ½ lower at $4.70 ½.

Soybeans – Soybeans were lower on Monday and didn’t get any sort of turn-around Tuesday. May beans were down 4 ¼ at $11.58. This was 10 ½ off the high and 2 off the low. May soybean meal was down 2.2 at 329.7, while soy oil was down .06 at 66.44. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 815k mt, which was below expectations again but above what we saw a week ago. Bean planting is actually ahead of corn this spring with 6% of the crop planted versus 2% as a 5-year average. I think more and more growers are trying to get their beans in the ground first these days, and I assume we’ll see an even bigger gap this next week. This bean market has been a dud the last several days, and while planting progress could have a say in it, I know the beans are following energy somewhat. Given how closely tied veg oils have been to crude, it makes sense soy oil and thus soybeans might struggle with the wild swings in this energy market. Nov beans settled at $11.44, down 5 ¾.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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