Good Morning!
We ended up having a great week of weather up until Wednesday night. Between last week on Monday-Wednesday, we got all the beans in the ground into excellent soil conditions. Wednesday night we had .8-1.2 on all of our farms, so we’re sitting for now. We have another system coming through this weekend, so if it doesn’t dump too much, we’ll hopefully be back at it on corn next week. I know a few of you haven’t been able to run just yet, so I’m hopeful you’ll get Mother Nature to work with you soon. There’s no doubt we needed the moisture, but when we’re trying to plant isn’t always preferable. Regardless, we’re going to have to deal with it and do our best. Keep me posted on how you’re getting along. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This past week on the podcast, I was planting beans and talking about what we’re seeing in the markets. The mobile office was in full-swing. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
This, the corn market took a turn trading higher on the week, while soybeans lost some ground. After two weeks in a row of the opposite occurring, one could deduce some of this is due to weather and fertilizer prices-especially if the areas sitting stay wet. It appears the Strait of Hormuz is now open, but by the time some of you read this over the weekend, who knows? Geo-political issues will continue to play a role. Outside markets were mixed.
CORN
May ‘26 corn posted a weekly gain for the first time this month. May settled at $4.48 ¾, up ¼. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 5 ½ off the low. May rallied 7 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market went down below the 200-day moving average but bounced on Friday and settled above it. I wouldn’t say it’s a bullish setup by any means-but it appears the funds aren’t all running for the exits just yet. With energy getting smoked on Friday, it was a great sign to see corn close well off the lows. We have to focus on the things we know-we have a ton of corn on hand, and we’re forecasted to plant enough acres to keep supplies robust. Therefore, on rallies we must keep our wits about us and consider incrementally rewarding the market every now and then. If we can make money at these prices, it sure beats what we’ve dealt with the last two years.
DEMAND
Corn demand was strong this past week. Exports came in at 1.401 mmt, up 40k from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol was also up, coming in at just under 109 mb. Stocks were up though. Basis was steady:
• My local basis: 20 under May (5 cents improved)
• Decatur: 5 over the May (five cents improved)
• St. Louis River: 33 over May (3 cents improved)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were up on the week. While the board held together nicely, basis did some work as well. Much of this is likely due to the last couple of down weeks we’ve seen paired with planting going on in some areas. Typically, corn doesn’t move much during planting as we all run out of manpower. I believe some of the best opportunities for basis appreciation are in the next two to four weeks as we get this crop in the ground. I’d continue to leg into sales if you need to do some catching up. As is generally the case, holding onto old corn past pollination is a risky maneuver, especially when we have so much corn on hand and likely enough acres to keep the market from getting super-excited. Ownership, if desired, might be best on paper moving forward, but this is just an opinion.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.77, up 4 ½ on the week. This fall corn finally caught a bid last week. While we’re 20+ cents off the highs, we’re still at levels most of us would have given our right arm for earlier in the winter. The next month is critical for this corn market, especially if we want to see a move to $5 or above. Brazil’s safrinha region is getting dry with a dry forecast. However, the NDVI maps looks incredible, so they’d need to stay dry for a few weeks to really get people worried. In the US, we know it’s early to be worried about late planting. However, a big chunk of Iowa and most of Northern Illinois is sitting without any progress. If we get another couple of weeks out with no major improvement, I’d be willing to bet some weather premium comes into this market. A market like this warrants some risk-management in my opinion-especially if we’re already at levels you know you can make work. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market regained some life this past week. I’m looking for areas we can hedge off some risk, expecially if we can head back towards the old highs just south of $5.
BEANS
Beans finally cooled off a bit. May beans settled at $11.67 ¼, up 3 ½. This was ¼ off the high and 15 ¾ off the low. Beans lost 8 ¼ cents on the week. May meal settled unchanged the week at 331.8, while soy oil ended the week at 68.16, up 1.07. The bean complex has a few diverging issues. While we see excellent domestic demand due to impressive crush margins-$3+ in most areas, we have an issue with the export situation. It’s likely the USDA has to lower US bean exports for this year with how few we’ve been selling of late. The influx of Chinese business this past winter certainly gave the market some positive vibes, but without additional business, it’s tough to see many exports at all. US beans are quite expensive versus Brazil at the time, which makes exports to anyone a tough sell. Growers need to understand these price levels, which we haven’t seen much of the last year, could be gone quickly. While I’m not necessarily bearish just yet, it’s really hard to be bullish with world fundamentals on the bearish side.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were down again on the week at 248 kmt. Basis was steady:
• My local beans: 17 under May (8 cents improved)
• Decatur: 20 over the May (no change)
• River: 28 over the May (8 cents improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were lower on the week with the drop on the board. Given the run we’ve seen of late, a little breather makes some sense, especially as crude oil continues to settle down. As we’ve said for a long time, getting down to some measure of gambling bushels may be best. While beans can always surprise us and take off on a run, they’re certainly much higher than where they were last fall when we cut them.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.56 ½, down 1 ¼ on the week. New beans didn’t lose as much ground as May/July, which is interesting. As we hear whispers of a growing bean acreage number, my guess would be Nov would struggle more-so than the cash. In my opinion, this bean market has given us some excellent opportunities to hedge off some risk. While I wouldn’t get super aggressive without some flex, I still think getting to a worst-case scenario that locks in Nov at $11.50 or better seems like a smart move. As always, it comes down to profit margin. Can you make money at this prices with normal production. If you know you can, a person has to consider what it looks like to hedge off some bean risk.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market fell a bit this week but closed well off of Friday’s lows. It continues to be resilient. I’d still consider locking in some worst-case scenarios if you know you can make money here.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.