Happy Easter!
It’s a great weekend to celebrate a risen savior. I know not everyone is on the same faith journey, but my family looks at the time of Easter as the most important ‘holiday’ we can celebrate. Having that hope in the world we live in is a luxury indeed. With my Illini in the Final Four this weekend over in Indianapolis, we were able to buy two tickets since we’re season ticket holders. That’s created a dilemma as the four kids around home all want to go. I believe the plan currently is for one to get the chance on Saturday, drive home due to Easter on Sunday and if the Illini win-try to take all four on Monday. Looking at ticket prices for Saturday, it’s going to be just the two of us, though. We’ve had rain this week with more to come-but it looks like next week we may get a shot, so we’ll hopefully get a bunch of the beans planted. Keep me posted on your progress if possible. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This past week on the podcast, we talked about the acreage/stocks report and how that may impact us moving forward. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
The corn market lost ground on the week while beans had small gains. While the highly-anticipated USDA acreage intentions report dropped on Tuesday, the war situation has been front and center when it comes to news. Outside markets should have provided support, although it’s been hard to outguess.
CORN
May ‘26 corn posted the second straight week of losses. May settled at $4.52 ¾, down 2. This was 8 ¼ off the high and 1 off the low. May lost 9 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, we look like the high could be in for the time being. Looking at the chart, we’re back to testing support under the market. Most likely, hedge pressure continues to hit this market as growers continue to sell bounces. With the funds selling 22k of their longs, they still sit at a 258k contract long position. So, what we’ve seen recently is some farmer selling while the funds pull back a bit-this is likely due to thoughts of some war premium exiting the market in the event we see a ceasefire of some sort. Plain and simple, this market is likely to be volatile until we straighten out the Iran situation. It’s entirely possible if oil remains strong that corn could rally even with solid acres and a good yield this summer. However, I believe risk-management on rallies should be a consideration-with flexibility a key.
DEMAND
Corn demand was down a bit this past week. Exports came in at 1.15 mmt, down 60k from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol was also down, coming in at 104 mb. Stocks were down though. Basis was steady:
My local basis: 25 under May (2 cents improved)
Decatur: 5 under the May (three cents improved)
St. Louis River: 28 over May (2 cents improved)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were softer on the week with futures prices lower. While basis levels improved, the board moving lower wasn’t offset by any means. With big farmer holdings yet, basis is unlikely to improve much on market moves lower, while we’ve seen widening on rallies. The cash market in the west has tons of corn to wade through, while the east is a different story. This stocks report showed on-farm farm stocks up 20% from a year ago, which affirms why basis has acted as it has. The bottom line here is the best chance for old corn to have value is to see crude oil stay strong and the corn market eventually work higher. Typically, oil to corn likes to stay around 15.5/1 on a ratio, and right now, we’re far from that. However, the longer oil stays high, the better the chance we see corn work closer to that ratio. I wouldn’t bet the farm we head there, especially with how volatile the oil market has been. However, selling into rallies with offers in place seems like a good plan. If a person wants to stay long, I’d rather do it on paper.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.81 ¼, down 9 ½ on the week. This fall corn market was all over the place this past week. While we saw some $4.90s, we also saw corn dip into the $4.70s. I keep reminding people to remember what $4.50 and below felt like. While that doesn’t mean we go out and hedge the whole crop, if you have your inputs quantified, run the math at normal yields. If you can make this work, locking in some break-even levels in the black would sure feel nice compared to the last few years. Keeping flexibility in the event you want to get more aggressive is also a great idea as there’s no doubt we could see much higher prices. For me and my farm, we’re going to have worst-case scenarios locked in with a chance at participating should we race higher. What it all boils down to is profitability. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market has slid a bit-but seems to have support. Be aware of how volatile we could get and keep some flex.
SOYBEANS
Beans looked to have solid gains on the week early in Thursday’s session but backed off and gave some of those gains up. May beans settled at $11.63 ½, down 5. This was 10 ¾ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Beans gained 4 ¼ cents on the week. May meal settled .1 lower on the week at 315.2, while soy oil ended the week at 68.94, up 1.53. The COT report showed funds buying more beans, adding 13k contracts to their long position-putting it at 204k. The acreage report gave some support as most of the guesses were above the USDAs 84.7 ma. The buzz around the RVO numbers remains supportive as well. On the flip-side, we know Brazil had a big crop and world stocks are more than adequate. So, the bean market is trying to find its way. While we could make the case we should stay strong due to strong domestic demand in the US, it’s tough to get too bulled up with the stocks situation. As with corn, much of the direction could have more to do with the war situation as anything.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were down on the week at 353 kmt. Basis was steady:
My local beans: 25 under May (8 cents improved)
Decatur: 12 over the May (no change)
River: 12 over the May (a penny improved)
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were a bit higher on the week due to the board rallying. When it comes to cash beans, the grower doesn’t have near as many bushels to sell relative to corn. We know most growers sold beans last fall, so especially in those areas where we have crush plants, we could see some strong basis levels moving forward. Crush has remained strong and will continue to, but at the same time, exports are poor and will likely stay that way. I continue to think keeping gambling bushels around is a good idea but wouldn’t sit on a huge percentage at some of the best prices we’ve seen in the last couple of years.
2026 SOYBEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.54, up 10 on the week. New beans had a decent week, likely supported by the lower-than-expected acreage number. My guess is bean acres have a better chance of growing in that June report than corn does-due to how this war situation has played out. It’s expensive to put corn in the ground, so those with swing acres definitely have a tough choice to make. I still see these prices as something to consider, especially if you keep your flex. For those with a solid APH, these prices work, but I’m well aware they may more of a challenge for others. What it again comes down to is marketing based on your break-evens. If you need some help getting your marketing plan together, be sure and reach out.
Soybean Market Theme: The bean market continues to offer great opportunity. I’d keep some flex but respect these prices and consider rewarding with risk-management.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.