Good Morning!
It sure is cold around our place to start the week. We had a little bit of snow and cold rain on Monday night into Tuesday morning, so any ideas of planting has been put on hold for a couple more days. What’s crazy is our high on Tuesday was 48, while on Wednesday we’re back up to 73. I assume on Thursday afternoon some of the tiled ground will be getting close, but we’re supposed to get rain again on Friday, so we’ll see how the forecast looks on Thursday. We had a nice, full day for Easter. While Toby and I had a great time at the Illini game on Saturday, by the time we got home, it was midnight. I think the drive would have seemed better if we watched our team win. Regardless, we had to get up at 7 am for sunrise service, so it was a quick turnaround. Now that we’re on the back side of Easter, I’m of the opinion we need to get some seed in the ground. We’ll see if Mother Nature cooperates. For on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets posted small gains on Monday before giving it back and then some on Tuesday. While the world is watching to see what happens in Iran, the markets have seemed a bit jittery. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market started the week with gains although not reflective of a strong crude oil market. On Tuesday, May corn closed down 5 at $4.49. This was 6 off the high and ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 2.002 mmt. This was more than a week ago and above expectations. Shipments of corn are running over 35% ahead of last year while the USDA is forecasting around a 15% increase. We have the April WASDE report coming this Thursday, but that is typically not the biggest report in the way of magnitude. The biggest impact right now is certainly what happens with regards to the middle-east and thus energy prices. In all honesty, it’s a challenge to outguess what might happen right now with the war situation. The best bet would be to keep with your marketing plan and have some worst-case scenarios locked in for new-crop. Dec26 corn settled 5 lower at $4.78.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were higher on Monday but gave it all up on Tuesday. May beans were down 8 ½ at $11.58 ¼. This was 12 ¼ off the high and 3 off the low. May soybean meal was down 4.8 at 311.8, while soy oil was down .23 at 69.72. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 779k mt, which was above expectations again and what we saw a week ago. Bean shipments are running over 25% behind the pace we saw a year ago, while the USDA is forecasting a 16% drop. It stands to reason the balance sheet could show lower exports and a bigger stocks number-whether they do that here in April remains to be seen. With most estimates on the Brazilian bean crop around 180mmt, both world and US stocks look adequate for now. In all honesty, this bean market has performed well given all things. Therefore, as with corn, it may be wise to have some profit locked in on a portion of production if you haven’t done so already. I concede the war could cause our ag markets to rally, but if the opposite occurs and we don’t get enough sold, it’s going to make a person aggravated. Locking in profits when they’re present is typically the kind of business that’s hard to argue with. Nov beans settled at $11.51, down 6.
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
815-665-0462 – Work
@chief321 - Twitter