August 10th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s been a busy week with Becknology Days going on. I didn’t have time to write my midweek column going from Kansas to home to Kentucky on Tuesday/Wednesday, so I couldn’t report what our weather has done. The big storm forecasted for last weekend and this past week again weren’t complete misses, but we didn’t get much rain. We’ve been praying for that one soaking rain to finish us out but getting a couple of ¼ and ½ inch rains add up after awhile. Our corn would enjoy a rain to hold onto as much weight and kernels as possible, while the bean crop could be special with a soaking rain. In talking to growers this week, I keep hearing ‘good, not great’ when it comes to the corn crop. Some have told me best ever, while a few have watched their crop fold in the intense heat. Overall, it seems this 2026 crop will be big but not near as big as a year ago-just from my observations. Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.

We didn’t get to do a podcast this past week. I’m hopeful in Iowa on Tuesday we can record one this coming week.

The corn and bean markets weren’t getting beat up quite as bad as a week ago, but we weren’t able to rally. With a few weather systems coming through the corn-belt, we saw a fair amount of selling/hedging as growers likely get more comfortable with crop size. Geo-political tensions have improved for now in the Strait of Hormuz while the Black Sea region remains hit-and-miss. Outside markets likely provided a friendly bias:

• The US Dollar was down .366 at 99.423.
• September crude oil was down 6.49 at 78.18.
• The DOW was up 1,517 points at 54,152.

CORN

September ‘26 corn started the week with a nice up move but gave it back Tuesday and couldn’t get much going otherwise. Sep settled at $4.39, down 1 ¾. This was 5 ½ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Sep lost 1 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market went down to the lowest of the moving averages at the 50-day and held above it. It’s a good sign we could keep that support for now as settling below the $4.37 area would likely open the door to more selling. Believe it or now, the Commitment-of-Traders report showed funds bought another 18k contracts, moving them to a net long of 145k contracts as of Tuesday’s close. With growers selling corn, the funds appear to be happy building a long position that has become notable again. I struggle to believe we rally into harvest, but this week’s August WASDE report could certainly provide some lift. The average trade guess for corn is a 182.3 yield with a range of 180.5-184.8. AgMarket estimates a 182.7 yield. I struggle to believe we’ll get a bullish report, even with good/excellent conditions much below a year ago. If they use the same methodology as last year, it’s likely we see a yield above 183-last year, they posted a 188.8! USDA will use satellite imagery to estimate the crop and not spend any time in the field looking at stands or ear size. I’d be cautious as to carry too much risk into this report.

DEMAND

Corn demand was meager this past week. Exports came in at 116 kmt for old-crop and 1.027m for new, both lower than a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a decrease on the week, coming in at 109 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 10 under Sep (no change)

• Decatur: 15 over Sep (2 cents improved)

• St. Louis River: 18 over Sep (4 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices didn’t change much on the week. Given we have harvest right around the corner, we can’t expect much in the way of a rally unless we see a bullish report on Wednesday. If I had a bunch of old-crop sitting around, I’d likely move some and keep some-and depending on how much we’re talking, I’d likely move more than I keep. I’m longer-term bullish, but that doesn’t do us much good in the here and now. And when it comes to old-crop, we’re running out of time.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.62, down 2 on the week. New-crop as well is right around the corner. If you look at basis levels, we see a push for old-crop until Sep 1 rolls around when most see basis levels widen out quite a bit. For those bushels that have to go to town, we need a plan here soon. I know many are thinking about keeping some ownership of corn and getting the cash in hand. If that’s the plan, I don’t mind buying a March $5 call. I might try to own it for 15 cents or under, but those who are thinking about selling corn now may look to buy some calls before we get too far into harvest, especially if we see a bullish report. Again, I’m not counting on that. Those $5 March calls are currently 16-17 cents, so they’re not all that expensive, especially compared to commercial storage. I’m still a big fan of storing everything on the farm we can. I like corn ownership post-harvest. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market didn’t do much on the week. This August WASDE likely gives us direction heading into harvest so managing some risk going into it might be a wise decision.

BEANS

Beans were up a little on Monday, got worked over on Tuesday and never really saw much buying otherwise. September beans settled at $11.59, down 1. This was 8 ½ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 11 ¾ cents on the week. Sep meal settled down 6 on the week at 308.9, while soy oil was a bit higher, settling at 68.24, up 98 cents. The COT report showed funds sold 28k contracts, which puts them at a 132k long. The bean market had more selling due to the timing of rainfall. Given it’s now August, seeing decent rains in parts of the corn-belt is exactly what a bean crop needs. So, growers were likely moving some beans at the same time funds were paring back their longs. This makes a rally tough to accomplish. The August WASDE has traders predicting a 52.8 yield with a range of 52-54. AgMarket is at 53.3 as we think this bean crop looks pretty good considering timely rains. As with corn, this is a big report for price direction heading into harvest. Keeping risk managed if a person hasn’t done much yet should be considered.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were a marketing-year low for old crop at 32k mt for old-crop. New-crop sales were solid but lower at 1.027 mt. Basis was mixed/widening:

• My local beans: 2 under Nov (no change)

• Decatur: 35 over Nov (no change)

• River: 21 over Nov (14 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were down on the week. While crushers are still hunting for beans with solid crush margins, we’re getting close enough to harvest that some are backing off of bids. River bids haven’t been near as good as crushers, likely due to slow export shipments. If I I had old beans, I’d sure be looking to price them soon. Bids once harvest starts widen out quite a bit in most areas, so keep that in mind.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.76 ¼ , down 11 ¼ on the week. These new-crop beans continue to let the air out after we ran all the way to $12.54. With forecasts still talking solid rain totals, it appears the bean crop is going to finish well. We’ll likely see a decent-sized bean crop this year, which should cap rallies for now. As I think about this bean market though, South American weather could provide lift later on. This strong El Nino shouldn’t be discounted, as it typically means very dry weather for much of Brazil. Bean demand has been quite impressive and continues to build as crushing beans for renewable diesel hasn’t backed off much in the US or globally. I know it’s hard to guess bean yields, but keep your break-evens updated. For those beans that have to go to town, I’d be getting them priced if you know you can make money. We can always re-own some beans or even store some commercially. While I’m not a huge fan of commercial storage, this could be a year where we can make it work due to how much potential upside we could see given global weather concerns. And again, I would be a fan of storing some at home if you can keep your moisture from getting too low.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market is struggling to rally. Given weather, it’s not hard to fathom why. Being in a good place on our marketing plan heading into such a big report is something to consider.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.