Good Morning!
This past week was a busy one around our place. With Becknology Days getting started, I spoke at Beck's shows in Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, and just down the road in Effingham. There were some big crowds on hand at each location, and while it was hot in the afternoon, enough air was moving to keep conditions comfortable. The mood wasn't too bad, but as a guy who talks markets, I had my work cut out for me. My goal is to be as direct as possible about the situation at hand. While I see some opportunity down the road, there's no doubt we're in challenging times as we stand today.
I was appreciative of all of the good conversations and dialogue, as it made for a very productive week. At home, we had a pop-up shower on Thursday with a half-inch of rain. While most of my farms had a couple of tenths, we were fortunate to have a few hundred acres that received a little more. While we're not critically dry, we needed it and will need more if these beans are going to be as good as they look. Again, stay in touch and let me know how things are going in your neck of the woods.
I'll be at Becknology Days in Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa this week. Be sure to reach out if you want to chat or ask questions about our app or services. I look forward to seeing all of you. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets both moved lower on the week. While we didn't lose nearly as much as we have lately, we're not getting much buying to come in, even with a drier bias. We're running out of time for a weather issue, but hot and dry in the next two weeks could give us a lift. Outside markets were active with mixed signals.
The US Dollar was down .736 at 98.009
September crude oil was 3.46 lower at 63.88
The DOW was up 566 points at 44,278
CORN
September corn was down 4 of 5 days, with the one up day on Thursday, a nice respite with a nickel higher move. On Friday, September settled at $3.82 ¾, down 1 ¾. This was 6 ½ off the high and ¾ off the low. September lost 6 ¾ cents for the week. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, we saw contract lows made before some buying finally showed up. With the close on Wednesday almost a nickel off the lows, there was some reversal action even though we didn’t close higher. Seeing a strong market on Thursday certainly made the chart look better, but easing off again on Friday was a bit of a disappointment. Given the USDA report is this coming Tuesday and most estimates are for a big-time crop, it’s not hard to fathom the bearish tone, but as we saw last year, August has shown a drier bias for most. The low in the market was set on August 16, right after the report, so it will be interesting to see if we have some buying surface as we did a year ago. AgMarket came up with an estimate of 184.8 for this report. While we think the USDA will come in above a year ago, we don’t think they’ll come in guns blazing either. I’m longer-term friendly but struggle to get bullish cash prices given we’re heading into harvest soon.
DEMAND
Corn demand was strong on the week. Net export sales came in at 170 KMT, which was about half of what they were a week ago. However, new-crop sales were monstrous at 3.16 mmt, so overall sales were up over a million and a half tons! Ethanol grind was at 105 MB, down a million bushels. Stocks were down on the week. Basis was mixed/wider:
CASH CORN
Cash prices moved lower on the week yet again. Given that harvest is going on in the Delta, we would be hard-pressed to get much of a basis push from here forward. Some are still showing a better basis into September, but once harvest starts, the basis is likely to widen in many areas, given the size of this coming crop. If you need to move this old corn, it’s time to make a plan for wrapping it up. If you have some corn you want to harvest early, blending some old corn with new to get a quick-ship bid isn’t a bad idea if you can keep the moisture under control. Let me know if you want some help on that.
2025 CORN
December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.05 ½, down 5 ¼. This past week, we dipped under $4 on Wednesday, so the move back above seemed like a minor victory. I’ve had a ton of people ask if I thought the low is in. It’s tough to outguess that, but I’d put the odds at 50/50 right now. If we get a big yield as most expect this week, it may be tough to expect much buying given the US grower is undersold heading into harvest. While the funds bought 15k of corn this past week, I’m not sure they’ll liquidate the whole short just yet. It’s tough to know, but we can’t ignore that they’re well off the 200k short they had just a month ago. My biggest concern remains basis as we head into harvest. Make sure you have those bushels accounted for that you have to go to town. Getting them priced and owning corn with a call spread seems wise to me-that’s how we’re handling those bushels. The bushels you can store at home should have some good value as this marketing year unfolds, especially with the expected reduction in US acres for 2026. Again, using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of risk management. Let us know if we can be of assistance.
Corn Market Theme: The corn market isn’t finding many buyers just yet, but with the funds buying some corn, there is hope as we head towards harvest. It likely takes some patience, but we should consider keeping corn ownership to give ourselves a shot at a rally.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans also moved a bit lower. On Friday, September beans settled down 6 ¼ at $9.87 ½. This was 10 ½ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Soybeans lost 2 cents on the week. September meal settled 5.7 higher on the week at 276.6, while soy oil ended the week at 52.71, down 1.77. The bean market seemed to stabilize this past week. While crop ratings remain at a solid clip at 69% good/excellent, we know August weather is the determining factor for how the crop ends up. If we see these warmer and drier conditions remain for the bulk of the corn belt, it would be tough to think we move much lower from here. At the same time, on a trade level, we have no new-crop sales on the books. We need a trade deal with China, and we need it now. Given Brazil had a huge soybean crop, we’re looking at an uphill battle when it comes to exporting, especially if China stays on the sidelines. At this point, I’m not selling many beans given price action and the time of year we’re in. However, in fairness, I have less confidence in keeping bean ownership until we see some clarity on these trade issues.
DEMAND
Soybean exports were up from last week at 468k tons, up 120k from last week. With 545k posted for the next marketing year, exports overall were up 250k. Basis was widening.
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were down on the week. While the board held together pretty well, most basis levels were widening. As harvest has gotten underway in the Delta, the small amount of beans needs for exports will be taken care of closer to New Orleans, where most of them get shipped. The river basis has been awful, and it’s not hard to figure out why with no export sales for new crop. I’d clean these beans up if you need the space. However, for those with a big carry to January, it may be wise to keep them around if you have room and sell that carry.
2025 BEANS
November 2025 beans settled at $9.87 ½, down 1 ¾ on the week. November beans have tried to get back to $10 but haven’t had much luck just yet. Again, we’re in a quandary when it comes to trade. We must see some positive movement there, or even a drop in yields might not move the needle much. With positive news in the way of renewable diesel, it’s not all bad news by any means. However, given we export such a big percentage of the crop (over a third), having such a small book of new-crop sales on is a big issue. Given how good the bean crop looks, the trade may be hesitant to buy beans on dryness unless it turns into another 2-3 weeks of hot and dry. It’s tough to outguess it by all means. I’m in a holding pattern for now as we see how this August weather turns out. Any pop in the market should be rewarded for those who need to get caught up and/or feel good about their yield prospects. As always, reach out if you need any help at all.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.