August 15th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s been another busy week with Becknology Days. I did a fair amount of travel in the last two weeks, getting to Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Tennessee, Minnesota and here in Illinois. I’ve seen a good chunk of this crop from the air, and there’s no doubt the USDA was on the right path with their estimate of a lower yield than a year ago. The nitrogen loss is exceptional in some areas. I feel fortunate to work with the folks at Beck’s-given all the places I’ve been, it’s amazing I was able to be at home with my family every night. I’m tired for sure, but it’s pretty cool to do all this travel and not have to be away from family. We have our town festival this weekend, so plenty is going on. Toby, the 14-year-old, is driving our restored 4010 narrow-front in the parade, while I’m carting Abileen, the 10-year-old in our Ranger with a big AgMarket sign. Also, I’ve finally caught a rain on Friday morning-a half-inch or so, but we’ll take it. Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.

I did the podcast this past week from Minnesota detailing the USDA report. Here is where you can find it. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

The corn and bean markets both rallied, bolstered by a friendly report for corn on Wednesday. While rain was plentiful in many areas, excessive rain and wind were noted across many areas in the corn-belt. Geo-political tensions remain elevated, both for the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Outside markets likely provided a friendly bias:

• The US Dollar was up .156 at 99.559.
• September crude oil was up 4.22 at 82.40.
• The DOW was down 345 points at 53,807.

CORN

September ‘26 corn didn’t do much until the report on Wednesday, and then it came to life. On Friday, Sep settled at $4.59, up 11. This was ¾ off the high and 11 ½ off the low. Sep rallied 20 cents for the week. Technically, this corn market looks solid. With the close above all moving averages, the next target appears to be less than a dime away at the high of $4.68 made in August. If we clear this level on front-month, the old highs would appear to be in play. The Commitment-of-Traders report showed funds sold 19k contracts as of Tuesday’s close, moving them to a net long of 126k contracts. With the buying on Wednesday through Friday, I assume they’ll show a much bigger long a week from now. The USDA report certainly changed the tone of this market. While a rally into harvest is uncommon, this situation is interesting for sure. We have big-time demand, both in the World and US-which means production has to remain strong. Any hiccups will be bought, just as we saw this past week. As I’ve been saying, I’m a huge fan of corn ownership in this environment. With that being said, incrementally rewarding the market is something we should always consider on rallies-while keeping some flexibility in the event we see more buying.

DEMAND

Corn demand was solid this past week. Exports came in at 411 kmt for old-crop and 925k for new, up overall from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a nice increase on the week, coming in at 111 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 10 under Sep (no change)

• Decatur: 20 over Sep (5 cents improved)

• St. Louis River: 16 over Sep (2 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were up on the week. While basis was mixed, gains on the board pushed cash bids higher. While basis could widen on rallies where plenty of old-corn is sitting around, those areas in the eastern-corn-belt could see pushes. Growers with old-corn need to have a plan on how they’ll unload it as we move into harvest. Local bids for me are 30 cents less a month from now, indicating it won’t pay to wait. Keeping ownership with call options might be a consideration, but I wouldn’t spend more than a dime to do so.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.83 ¼, up 21 ¼ on the week. New-crop also settled above all moving averages. Whether we make a run at the old high at $5.06 ½ or not will depend on how convinced the trade is on this August number as well as export activity-and possibly concerns over South American weather. With strong correlation to dry weather in Brazil during an El Nino, this has to be on some traders’ minds. This is being billed as the strongest El Nino ever, so a delay in Brazil planting first-crop beans could be quite supportive to corn this fall. I like keeping ownership of corn, so filling bins and having some calls bought versus sales might be considered. Either way, it looks like a grower can make some money this year if they have a decent crop-nice to see for sure. Marketing our corn to ensure a worst-case scenario of making money should be a goal, but I’d also like to participate should a strong rally unfold. That’s why I like some call ownership. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market performed well after a bullish WASDE report. Keep some flex but don’t be afraid to reward rallies. Locking in net income is tough to argue with.

BEANS

Beans also found some buying after the report, although the numbers were thought to be neutral to a bit bearish. September beans settled at $11.77 ¾, up 11 ¾. This was ¾ off the high and 10 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 18 ¾ cents on the week. Sep meal settled up 1.3 on the week at 310.2, while soy oil was up 1.20, settling at 69.44. The COT report showed funds sold 23k contracts, which puts them at a 109k long. While funds were likely buying corn after the report, I’m not sure if they’ll be buying beans to the same tune. Given weather has been conducive for better bean yields, it will be interesting to see price direction. This US crop will be big, but demand is impressive at the same time. The weather talk around South America will likely heat up as we get closer to their planting season, but I assume it’s on some minds already. I don’t get bullish beans often, but I certainly like ot have some flex when marketing them. Given how quickly beans can move, having some calls in play just in case we see world production slip might be a decent idea. We’ve seen massive crops out of Brazil the last few years and a huge US crop this year due to more acres and what is thought to be a big yield. With world supply actually constricting, it makes big world production a necessity.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up but still low at 75k mt for old-crop. New-crop sales were up big at 1.76 mt. Basis was mixed/widening:

• My local beans: 2 under Nov (no change)

• Decatur: 35 over Nov (no change)

• River: 21 over Nov (no change)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were up on the week. As with corn, we have to have a plan for these beans as harvest is right around the corner. Basis has been solid, especially around crush plants, so putting offers out there would be a wise move. I know some have talked about keeping them in the bin-while I prefer selling the old and focusing on new, if a person has the room and hasn’t sold yet, I understand keeping some ownership.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.92 ½ , up 16 ¼ on the week. The new-crop beans didn’t perform quite as good as old, likely due to the big rains coming across the corn-belt. An inch or two of rain will add some bushels to those beans, so keep your projected yields up-to-date. IF you raise the yield and realize you can make some sales and lock in solid income, I see no reason not to do it. Again, I like having some skin in the game on these beans given the situation, so keeping a long bias on some bushels is what I prefer moving forward. I’m not a big fan of a marginable position to do so as beans can take a guy’s lunch pretty quickly. If you need help with ways to stay long beans while getting the cash sold, please reach out. We’d be glad to give you some ideas.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market had a nice week but nothing like corn, relatively speaking. I like some ownership of beans, so I’d like to keep some upside open.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.