August 27th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week is going well so far. I’ve got the Farm Progress Show this week, so it’s the home stretch for me when it comes to summer speaking gigs. It’s been a busy few weeks, but I’ve had the chance to see and visit with a ton of growers. It’s been a learning experience for sure, as speaking with these folks about their crops is invaluable when trying to get my head wrapped around this coming harvest. Around home, we’re in the thick of baseball, with my 13-year-old playing junior high. While I’ve had to miss a few games, I won’t have to miss any more. The weather has been perfect for baseball with highs around 80 at most. Unfortunately, the weather hasn’t been great for our crops around here, as we are drier than a bone at this point. Most yards are brown, with pastures having dried up as well. We’ve started feeding hay already, but fortunately, this year has been one heck of a year for hay with all the early moisture. I know a few are harvesting in Kentucky and Southern Illinois, so please keep me posted on how it’s doing. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE.  https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market was thought to rally after the ProFarmer numbers dropped on Friday, but it’s been lackluster to start the week. Beans took it on the chin on Monday but rebounded a bit on Tuesday. With some talk of a trade deal on the way, some traders are cautiously optimistic, while others aren’t holding their breath just yet. Outside markets should have provided a muted bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .196 at 98.122.
• October crude oil settled down 1.55 at 63.25.
• The DOW settled 138 points higher at 45,489.        

 The corn market couldn’t get much traction in the day session, settling closer to the lows. September corn closed 1 ¾ lower at $3.87 ½. This was 4 ½ off the high and ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.305, which was above expectations as we continue to run ahead of the pace needed to reach the goal that the USDA gave us just a couple of weeks ago. Good/excellent stayed the same at 71%, while the weekly crop progress report shows 44% of the crop dented. With so much of the crop progressing quickly, we continue to question just how far off the USDA may be with their 188.8 Bu./A. estimate. This is likely a record crop, but just how much above 180 might we be? That’s what will be the big question over the next few weeks. It’s tough to get too bullish with a big crop on the way, but I again think we have a shot at a corn rally once we shift our focus to 2026. It may be easier to get a rally on December 2026 than any of the cash contracts for a bit, especially with questions surrounding these high fertilizer prices. If the grower doesn’t get a rally before fall is over, one might be safe to assume dry fertilizer tonnages should fall a fair bit. There’s a chance we see some buying from the funds sooner or later, as we’ve built such massive demand. While it’s again tough to be bullish with a record crop at huge acreage, when one looks at the big picture, it’s tough to ignore the need for big crops in 2026 out of both South America and the US. December corn was down 2 ¾ on Tuesday, settling at $4.09 ½.                                   

December ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Soybeans were down double-digits on Monday but clawed back some of the losses on Tuesday. September beans were up 3 ¼ on Tuesday at $10.28 ¾. This was 5 ¾ off the high and 9 ¼ off the low! Soybean meal was up 1.56 at 297.2, while soy oil was down 1.55 at 52.76. The weekly inspections showed beans at 383k, which remains quite impressive for this point in the marketing year. The good/excellent rating came in at 69%, which was a 1% increase from a week ago. The report showed 89% setting pods. This bean crop is an interesting one in that we’re so dry in the eastern Corn Belt, while conditions are favorable out west. It’s tough to know where beans may go from here after such a strong rally the last two weeks. Yes, the ECB crop is finishing poorly, but traders seem just as focused with impressive pod counts out of the PF tour. On Tuesday, November beans closed 1 ¾ higher at $10.49 ½. With beans having a good run of late, I continue to see value in incrementally rewarding a move like this. While a trade deal getting signed likely gives us some life, we’d have more beans to sell, and in my career, it's never been wise to completely ignore a strong rally.

November ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321