Good Morning!
I’m done with running the gauntlet of August, and with just one more speaking engagement, it’s time to focus on harvest here soon. Given the lack of moisture over the past month, things have progressed quickly in our part of the world. I’m hearing a few guys nosing out in some wet corn in central Illinois with varying yield reports. There’s one thing for sure: fungicides are going to pay huge dividends in most of the Corn Belt. We’ve been sent several pictures of treated versus untreated, and it’s such a stark contrast, it’s not funny. Much of the untreated corn has given up the ghost already, so getting after that corn will be a must. Our son Toby is in the middle of junior high baseball season, so I won’t have to miss any more games. The weather has been perfect for baseball with highs around 80 and low humidity, but it sure isn’t good for this bean crop. It’s also finishing poorly for us, but my hope is that we had enough moisture that, at least on the black ground, yields will hold together. It’s been fun meeting so many of you over the last month, and I look forward to seeing many of you again sometime soon. Keep in touch and keep us posted on harvest once you get underway.
My first Becknology™ Days are over! What a ride it has been. With record crowds for these events, I know Beck’s leadership has been excited about the momentum. I know I’m as glad as I can be to be a part of it. Let me know if you want to chat or ask questions on our app or services. CLICK HERE for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets both rallied on the week. With the ProFarmer tour seeing a little different story than the USDA, the nightly updates kept some support for the markets. On Friday, the PF results came in after the close, and it was a bit of a shock. They pegged the corn yield at 182.7 and beans at 53. With USDA at 188.8 and 53.6, I assume some enthusiasm could hit the market as doubts mount about just how big this crop is. Outside markets were trading as follows versus a week ago, late in the trade on Friday.
CORN
December 2025 corn saw strong buying on Friday after a lackluster week otherwise. On Friday, December settled at $4.20 ¼, up 10 ¼. This was ¼ off the high and 10 ½ off the low. December rallied 9 ¾ cents for the week. With growers having to sell corn or re-up for storage, there was likely some hedge pressure late in the week. However, there must have been more buyers than sellers, as we saw a strong move as corn closed right at the high for the month. Given we made a new contract low in August, we could certainly call this a reversal and make the argument that a low seems somewhat likely to be in. However, there’s so much to learn about the 2025 crop yet. It’s likely a record, but at the same time, August weather couldn’t have been much worse to finish the crop. With massive disease pressure in Iowa and drought unfolding in the Eastern Corn Belt, the top-end has certainly come off this huge crop. The key is just how much yield have we lost? My gut tells me we’re well under 185 at this point, but how close to that trendline yield of 181 might we be? Given the market’s performance at a time when growers were likely selling corn, I’ve got to think the funds are continuing to liquidate their short positions. I’m not sure they will go long with a huge crop about to be harvested, but when the focus shifts to 2026, I’m not sure they’ll want to be short given record US and world demand for corn, especially with input prices strangling profit margins. If we continue this rally, keep your wits about you and consider incremental sales as we move higher.
DEMAND
Corn demand continues to be strong but was off a bit from the levels a week ago. Net export sales came in at -18 KMT, which was 10k improved from bigger cancellations a week ago. New-crop sales were again impressive at 2.09 mmt. Overall sales were down around 800k tons. Ethanol grind slipped to just under 104 MB, down marginally. Stocks were lower on the week. Basis was widening:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were stagnant on the week as the gain on the board was offset by the loss in basis. Given that we have a crop about to be harvested, the end-user and elevator guys have little incentive to bid for corn. Therefore, as we try to market this coming crop, the biggest issues for me are still the bushels that have to go to town. I like corn ownership for those that can put it in the bin. For bushels we’re selling now, I like keeping ownership, which we have previously recommended due to our thoughts we see some interest in buying acres sooner or later. While that may not make old-crop go up as much as we’d like to see due to big stocks, it seems likely we have good support if the trade starts getting nervous about whether production can keep up with such strong demand. Locking in worst-case scenarios before getting in the field seems wise on unsold bushels, while filling every bin we can. If you need any help getting your marketing plan in order, please let us know.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.59 ¼, up 5 ½. This past week, there was plenty of talk about how high these fertilizer costs are. With the FarmDoc team releasing what cash flows are projected to be for 2026, a stark contrast continues between corn and beans. With the advantage going to soybeans, it isn’t even close, with $100/A. projected to be the difference in all four areas of Illinois they looked at. My opinion is we have to buy some corn acres sooner or later if these bean prices stay where they’re at or even rally. There’s no doubt that producers are cash-strapped after the past three years, so a big shift in acreage seems likely, specially given the 17-million-acre gap we have here in 2025. It all comes down to locking in net revenue, so I’m not doing much of anything right now on 2026 corn.
Corn Market Theme: The corn market ended the week and month on a strong note, so we’ll hopefully see some new money come in to start the month. If we can get some follow-through buying, pay close attention for opportunities to lock in profit.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans had a quiet week, seeing buying to close the week, which trimmed earlier losses. On Friday, November beans settled up 6 ½ at $10.54 ½. This was ½ off the high and 12 ½ off the low. Beans lost 4 cents on the week. October meal settled 4.9 lower on the week at 283.4, while soy oil ended the week at 51.7084 down 2.24. The bean market quieted down on the week after a strong two-week rally. Some hedge pressure was likely as growers got a rally they’d been waiting for. While the weather is far from perfect, some in the trade are looking at big pod counts, possibly curbing yield losses many expect after the dry finish. It was surprising to see soy oil struggle, as most of the proposals we’ve seen from the government are quite friendly to renewable fuels/diesel. My gut feeling is that this soy oil market will be well-supported moving forward, which should keep bean prices from falling out of bed. Still, if you’re on the growers with big yields coming, I still feel like rewarding the recent rally makes for good business. If you need help getting your bean marketing house in order, let us know.
DEMAND
Soybean exports were a net cancellation for old-crop of 189k tons, which was 180k more than we saw canceled a week ago. 1.372 mmt were posted for next marketing year, so bean exports overall were quite similar to a week ago. Basis was widening.
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were losing value. Given the small drop on the board, the hit on basis in some areas didn’t help matters. As we talked about last week, cash beans are now the ones many of us are about to harvest since some of us have already cut some of them. I know most have been more aggressive in selling beans than corn, and that may be a good thing, particularly for those of us who know our yields have been hurt. For my farm, we’ve sold a fair bit of beans already (50%-ish), so I doubt I’ll sell many more beans just yet without a strong rally. I have to think our yields are 10-15 below what we thought we’d see, maybe more. Therefore, I’ll likely give this a little time and see if we can get a resumption of the rally we’ve seen here lately.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $10.83, up 6 ¼ on the week. While I feel good about bean demand when it comes to crush margins for beans, I’m not sure how this export situation is going to play out for the beans we’re about to harvest. With the Brazilian grower planting 2-3% more beans this coming year, it’s tough for me to get too excited about a bean rally, as the US grower is likely to grow a few million more acres of beans than they did in 2025. So, I like getting some coverage in this area for those who are going to grow a bunch of beans next year. If we make the decision based on prices, we should be doing something about those prices. Locking in a floor with a put at the market and helping pay for it with a call over $12 makes good sense to me, as the only way a person would pay a margin call would be a rally in beans. As always, I like keeping some flexibility when marketing beans, and a strategy like this would do just that. Get a hold of one of us if you need help getting your marketing plan etched out for what could be a volatile market.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.