Good Morning!
We were dry as of me writing this on Friday afternoon. We have a 90% chance of rain with ‘heavy rain possible’, but I’m not much of a believer until I see it as dry as we’ve gotten. The system that is going through the corn-belt once again has blessed some in abundance and many of you have already shared with me how you missed it. I hope you’re getting enough rain, as I know how frustrating it is to watch a crop with big potential flame out. It’s wild how growers west and especially north of where I am in central Illinois have been hotter than we have. It’s certainly been an odd year for Mother Nature. Keep the feedback coming as it helps us keep a handle on this 2026 crop size. mbennett@agmarket.net.
For the podcast we covered how the markets have been trading along with some charts. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
The corn and bean markets went south for the week. With weather models coming into agreement a large system would pass through the corn-belt Thursday-Saturday, selling pressure was notable. Wheat prices dropped as well, pressured by throughts the Black Sea situation was set to improve. Outside markets likely provided a friendly bias:
CORN
September ‘26 corn started the week with selling pressure and saw that as a general theme for the week. Sep settled at $4.40 ¾, down 5. This was 6 ¼ off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. Sep lost 23 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market had been in a steep uptrend since the June 30th NASS report. We certainly broke the trend but held the last of the moving averages, the 50-day. The Commitment-of-Traders showed funds bought 70k contracts, getting them to a net long of 127k contracts as of Tuesday’s close. Much of that buying was likely occurring in the last three days of the previous week, based on how we traded on Monday. My guess is there was a fair amount of fund selling this past week from Wednesday to Friday, so it will be interesting to see if the funds continue to liquidate their longs. Given it was month-end, I’m sure plenty of traders were taking profits off the table with how good those longs performed in the month of June. Rain coverage will be important as we start the week as well as any forecasted rain. Given the calendar, a soaking rain for most of us would keep us from seeing this crop go backwards and possibly ensure a decent yield. It’s tough to be bullish when many are getting rain this time of year.
DEMAND
Corn demand was solid this past week. Exports came in at 363 kmt for old-crop and 1.062m for new, both higher than a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a big increase on the week, coming in at 111 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was mostly mixed:
• My local basis: 10 under Sep (8 cents wider)
• Decatur: 13 over Sep (1 cent wider)
• St. Louis River: 22 over Sep (3 cents wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices moved lower on the week. With the drop on the board, we didn’t see basis appreciation in most areas. Given how much corn is on hand in many areas, it’s tough to get a basis push in those areas this time of year. It’s crunch time on old corn. While holding onto it this year has proved a good plan, we’re getting close enough to harvest that originators won’t have much reason to push for it. I’d be getting old-corn priced here soon, but that’s just my opinion.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.64, down 23 ½ on the week. The 46-cent gain the previous three weeks was cut in half just this week. We could see more down IF this crop is thought to be getting bigger. While the 183 seems tough to attain with good/excellent ratings at 63% vs 73% a year ago, there’s plenty of people clamoring for acres to move higher. Last year, USDA raised planted acres multiple times, so I’m hoping they had a better handle on it this year. Given today’s technology, it’s surprising to me how many times they had to raise it. For the bushels that have to go to the elevator, a person needs to get their plan in place soon. Making those decisions when going across the scale rarely is the best time. For the other bushels, I have to think corn will be good property given strong demand. IF we move lower, that demand won’t back off. USDA has new-crop corn demand 325 mb lower than this current marketing year, and without a rally, it’s tough to think that’s realistic. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market gave back some gains due to favorable weather. Old-crop needs priced soon in my opinion, while new-crop should be viewed a bit differently depending on your storage situation.
BEANS
Beans got smoked out of the gate on Monday and as with corn, the rest of the week didn’t change much in the way of price direction. August beans settled at $11.72, down 5 ¼. This was 9 off the high and 5 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 76 cents on the week. August meal settled down 19.1 on the week at 312.2, while soy oil was sharply lower, settling at 67.12. down $7.21 cents. The COT report showed funds bought 30k contracts, which puts them at a 160k long. The bean market likely had quite a bit of fund selling this past week, so I expect next week’s COT report to reflect that. The bean market was also reacting to weather with the forecasts showing rain not only this week but next week as well. While this bean market has been resilient and has great demand, both domestically and in the world, it’s a tough ask for the bean market to rally when we see so much rain on the radar at this time of year.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were up for old crop at 302k mt for old-crop. New-crop sales were again solid at 1.333 mt. Basis was improved on a move to vs the Nov:
• My local beans: 2 under Nov (15 cents improved)
• Decatur: 35 over Nov (7 cents improved)
• River: 35 over Nov (7 cents improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were down sharply on the week. While basis was improved in most areas, reflecting strong crush demand, the drop on the board was far too much ground for basis to make up. As with corn, we’re getting late in the game as some bean harvest in the Delta is getting going and will of course continue to move north. We’re getting to the time when originators won’t have much incentive to go and chase down beans. So long as they have enough to get to harvest, they’ll likely try to back off on bids here soon.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.87 ½, down 66 on the week. This new-crop market settled at their contract highs this past week, given growers a chance to sell at $12 and above fall-delivery in many areas. These were the best prices we’ve seen in the last couple of years as well. I understand it’s tough to sell after a sell-off, but those beans heading to the elevator this fall need a plan. IF we turn off wet for August, there’s no doubt it will be tough to see these beans rally. IF you’re in a spot where you’ve had plenty of rain and feel good about your bean yields, make sure you’ve updated them in the break-even spreadsheets or the AgM app. You might find you can make solid money at the yields you currently expect. As with corn, beans have such strong demand, I would assume bean prices could be well-supported until we see some verification of a big US crop and solid South American production. If a guy could store some beans at home, I don’t think it would be a bad idea.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market got smoked this past week after making new highs just a week ago. Selling any strength makes sense while considering some flex in the plan.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.