August 6th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week is going well. I’m on a bit of a tour, speaking at seven Becknology™ Days events over the next two weeks. I was in Salina, KS, on Tuesday, and will be in Henderson, KY, today, Goehner, NE, on Thursday, and will close out the week closer to home in Effingham on Friday. With how it’s working out, believe it or not, I’ll be sleeping in my own bed each night! I had some good talks with growers, although the mood is a bit solemn, as one might expect. Given how prices have traded, it’s been a tough year to lock in any level of profit margins. Our weather at home has been tough to beat with cooler temperatures but no rain for the last ten days or so. While we still have some moisture underneath the surface, we will certainly need another rain or two to finish the beans, and one to pack weight on corn wouldn’t hurt anything. Please don’t hesitate to reach out and let me know how things are in your neck of the woods. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market continues to take it on the chin, while beans haven’t had any luck putting together a rally either. With solid crop ratings, the trade is of the opinion that this crop is a monster. At this point, it would be hard to argue that overall we’re a record. We need some positive trade/tariff news, as the cooler weather we’ve had of late isn’t giving the market any reason to get excited. Outside markets should have provided a muted bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .005 at 581.
• September crude oil settled up .10 at 26.
• The DOW settled 67 points lower at 44,236.  

The corn market has a low fun factor here lately. September corn closed 5 ½ lower at $3.81 ½. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 1 off the low. With the market down 2 ½ cents on Monday, this week hasn’t started off as we would prefer. Weekly export inspections were down from the previous week at 1.208 mt. This is 300k lower than a week ago, but still well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA goal for exports. The good/excellent rating came in at 73%, which was the same as a week ago. These ratings are not dipping this late in the season due to factors like the NDVI showing excellent plant health from above. While I still like storing corn at home due to a demand-led rally potentially unfolding later, continuing to make new lows wear on a guy after a while. I still think we need to quantify our worst-case scenarios when it comes to bushels that must be delivered this fall. I’d also get those May calls or call spreads bought if you lock in some corn. We bottomed around mid-August last year, and while no two years are the same, you’d sure hate to sell the corn and not have some ownership. December corn was down 5 on Tuesday, settling at $4.02.  

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Soybeans tried to move higher on Tuesday, but the selling pressure on corn spilled over. September beans were down 3 ¾ on Tuesday at $9.71 ½. This was 11 ½ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. Soybean meal was unchanged at 277, while soy oil was down .63 at 53.77. Soybean export inspections were well above a week ago at 613k tons. This total was about 200k more than the levels a week ago, and above expectations. The good/excellent rating came in at 69%, which was a 1% decrease from a week ago. With rainfall a bit more selective in August than what we’ve seen so far this summer, I’m surprised beans can’t hold their ground until we sort out how this crop might finish. I’m not necessarily bullish, but it’s tough to be bearish at these levels with forecasts not necessarily calling for a good finish just yet. The report next week will be tough to outguess, as a well-rated crop that could use more rain will be what we’re trying to handicap. My best guess is yield comes in a little above where we were in July, at maybe a 53 to 53.5. On Tuesday, November beans closed 3 ¾ lower at $9.90 ¾. While it would be a minor victory to get back above $10, it’s not going to make many, if any, of us any money without outlandish yields. I’m not selling any beans at these levels as we hope for a bounce here somewhere 

September ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321