Good Morning!
I hope you’re having a good week. I’m out and about speaking this week, so I’m getting the miles on. While the mood isn’t necessarily bad, there’s certainly plenty of concern regarding to the Chinese trade deal, input prices, and the overall ag economy. After three straight years of tough sledding, there’s no doubt we need to see these markets give us some chances to find black ink in 2026. Around home, we warmed up, then turned off cold again. It was a sloppy mess for a day, and now the ground is frozen and not much fun to navigate for us or the cows. The forecast for next week is bitterly cold, so we’ll all have to make sure we’re prepared. Keep me up-to-date on what’s going on. I appreciate all the feedback. For more information on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Several of you have asked for more details on our winter conference. You can learn more HERE, but if you have questions, don’t hesitate to ask. The dates are February 1 and 2. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary
The USDA report on Tuesday was similar to a December report in many ways, but corn got a little shot in the arm as exports were raised. The bean market struggled after seeing no changes on the report as the current trend of selling continues. No big weather news out of South America has been in the market, so a hot and dry spell would be well-received. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market took the friendly USDA report and saw some good buying come in. March corn closed 4 ¼ higher at $4.48. This was 1 off the high and 4 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations, and a week ago at 1.452 mmt. The USDA tipped its cap to the strong pace with the report on Tuesday. Exports went up 125 mb to 3.2 bbu. That’s a big move for a December report, which is typically known for little new information. While nothing else changed in the US balance sheet, this brought the carry-out down to 2.029 bbu, the lowest we’ve seen for this marketing year. If the USDA has to take yield down in January, I assume they’ll lower feed and residual usage, but either way, we’re getting these stocks whittled down to a less bearish level. I still like corn ownership but prefer to make incremental sales on rallies. Given that we are seeing the bean market move lower, it could be a big headwind for a corn rally, even if we get more bullish information. On Tuesday, December 2026 corn settled 1 ¾ higher on Tuesday at $4.65 ¾.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans have had a rough time here lately, and Tuesday was no different. January beans were down 6 ½ at $10.87 ¼. This was 7 ½ off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. January soybean meal was down 5 at 301.3, while soy oil was down .16 at 51.02. The weekly inspections showed beans at 1018mt, which was below expectations but ahead of a week ago. The USDA report made no changes for beans. While that isn’t necessarily bearish, the current tone has nothing to reverse this bearish sentiment. When it comes to this bean market, we have this head and shoulders pattern that looks verified. We also have a gap on the chart, another 15 cents lower. It sure looks like the market wants to trade down to that level and at least fill the gap. Establishing prices below $11 isn’t bullish by any means, but IF we could get some good trade news and/or weather news out of Brazil, we could get this trend reversed. As always, I’d have offers in place to clean up some old-crop bushels on rallies and consider new-crop sales above $11 if you need to get caught up. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 6 ¾ lower at $10.94 ¾.
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
815-665-0462
@chief321