December 1st Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We had a great week around our place with all the kids together. The only drawback is that these jokers want to stay up late every night. For Thanksgiving, we host every other year, and this was our year off. Personally, I’d rather host, but we had a good day regardless. Over the weekend, we had a decent shot of snow, it’s a little earlier than we typically get snow, but we had several inches. I know many of you north of me had quite a bit more. One thing is for sure; the kids seem to love the snow a little more than the adults. Have a great week and stay in touch.

Last week on the podcast, we covered profitability and how changes in input costs can affect our break-evens. Keep sending ideas on what you’d like to see covered. CLICK HERE to view last week’s episode. Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (11/25/2025)

I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s is our premier seed sponsor and we’re looking forward to their presence at our event. CLICK HERE to learn more. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary

The corn and bean markets both posted rallies on the holiday-shortened week. Corn was a little stronger, relatively speaking, but both posted solid gains. With reports that floods in China are making a big impact on total corn production, there was some unexpected bullishness by traders. The weather in South America is still a bit dry in Argentina and southern Brazil, while China has been in buying US beans consistently. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.

• The US Dollar was up .248 at 99.408
• January crude oil was up .49 at 58.55
• The DOW was up 483 points at 47,743    

CORN
December 2025 corn came to life this past week with some decent buying on Wednesday and Friday. December settled at $4.35 ½, up 3 ¾. This was 1 ½ off the high and 4 ¾ off the low. December rallied 10 cents for the week. March corn settled at $4.47 ¾, and as December is going into delivery, it will be the focus from here forward. While it appeared the corn market was stuck in a sideways chop, news that China’s corn crop is taking a hit seemed to give the market some life. While there’s no way of knowing just how much production might eventually be lost, reports of 10 mmt or more of damage or loss from flooding have been reported. Given our stellar export pace already, this corn market could get interesting if China ends up buying some corn as well. It will also be interesting if the USDA drops corn yields in December and/or January, as much of the trade is clamoring that they’re still plenty high. Regardless of anything else, big-time demand is a feather in the corn market’s hat. While we may not rally a whole lot if production is solid this next year, we’ve put ourselves in a position where we can’t afford to have production issues due to record demand. I still like corn ownership with a plan of rewarding rallies incrementally while keeping some flex.

DEMAND

Corn export demand reports keep coming in, with this week’s update from October 16 and 2.8 mmt! We are far from up to date yet, which is strange with our technology these days. Ethanol grind was pushing 3 mb higher, coming in at just under 108 MB. Stocks were down from a week ago. Basis was steady/wider on the move vs. December to March.

• My local basis: 28 under March (no change)
• Decatur: 5 under March (2 cents wider)
• St. Louis River: 6 over March (a penny wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices improved on the week. While we saw basis moving from vs. December to March, which took a penny or two, the board rally made for improved cash bids. Some are still pushing for corn, which should be a feature the next few weeks, as many growers have the bin doors shut and trucks aren’t always running around the holidays at full capacity. If you need to core bins or just need to raise some cash, make sure and let your originator know what you have and what you’re wanting out of your corn. They may surprise you with how hard they’ll push for it. Keeping ownership with a July call spread makes some sense to me, especially with the way this demand is performing. Again, I like some corn ownership, but to get a strong rally, we’ll need to pair this demand with a production issue. We will know about South American production as well as US acres and planting conditions by the time those July options expire.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.68 ¼, up 8 ¼ cents. December 2026 is getting closer to a level where I think a guy can do something with it. I like these positions with some flex in them, locking in a floor while keeping upside open. I also like for corn we know is going in the bin next fall to consider a hedge at $4.70 or better. Considering we saw a 30+ cent carry from December 2025 to July 2026 for much of this past fall, we might consider what it looks like hedging December above $4.70 with the thoughts we have a decent shot at rolling to the July with a 30-cent or better carry. This would get us $5 corn basis the board, and any of you who see positive basis at times could be looking at a nice price for corn. Now, I wouldn’t put too many eggs in any one basket as I could see a nice rally develop in 2026 with any production issues, but I sure do like that strategy on some bushels we know are going in the bin. It all boils down to locking in revenue, so we need to keep tabs on our break-evens. HERE is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market showed some life this past week. I like corn ownership but want to reward rallies when we get a chance while keeping some flex.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans also rallied a bit, but didn’t perform as well as corn relatively speaking. On Friday, January beans settled up 6 ¼ at $11.37 ¾. This was 1 off the high and 8 off the low. Beans rallied 12 ¾ cents on the week. January meal settled .5 lower on the week at 318.7, while soy oil ended the week at 52.05, up 1.53. The bean market has been more of a leader these last several weeks, but this past week was more of a follower. While the sales to China have been steadily coming in, the market hasn’t seemed impressed just yet. The biggest driver for beans is likely what the weather does in South America these next 6-10 weeks, as we get an idea of how big their production might be. While I could see beans go to $12 without any major bullish news, extending the rally from there will likely take a weather event, even if China indeed buys the 12 mmt we’ve been told they’d buy. As with corn, I’d sure reward these rallies incrementally while keeping in mind how fast this market can move in the event we see any weather issues develop in the coming weeks.

DEMAND

As with corn, we’re seeing old export sales reports, and they’re not that impressive due to China’s previous absence. Basis was mixed.

• My local beans: 28 under January (two cents improved)
• Decatur: Option the January (no change)
• River: 7 over the January (a penny wider)

CASH SOYBEANS

Cash beans appreciated in value this past week with the double-digit move higher on the board. While the basis was mixed, we saw cash bids higher. We’ve heard a few basis pushes for beans as well, especially for those around crush plants. With crush continuing at a blistering pace, I must assume some originators didn’t get the beans they thought they’d get this fall. It’s no secret that we saw several beans go in bags and/or storage we don’t typically see used. I look for beans to be volatile moving forward, so again, it might be wise to have some offers in to reward rallies. Keeping ownership of some beans would make sense as a rally could be impressive IF we see SA weather issues. However, I wouldn’t stick my neck out too far and keep any re-ownership to a limited-risk basis.    

2026 SOYBEANS

November 2026 beans settled at $11.28 ½, up 16 ½ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, we’re getting close to $11 fall delivery beans again in some parts of the I-states. For many, we’re getting close to a worst-case scenario in the black, so layering in some sales or putting on strategies like our AgMarket team has recommended would make sense. You could buy an $11.20 put with a dollar+ of protection on the downside and a ceiling up at $12.50 and get that booked for 20 cents or less if the market cooperates this week. Having $11 basis the board as a worst-case isn’t bad. As with corn, someone who can stand some margin exposure could hedge beans somewhere in here, basis this past fall was 50-65 cents from November to July, so it’s reasonable to think we’d have a shot at rolling to the July and be pushing $12 basis the board. If you need help getting a plan together, be sure to reach out to someone on our team. We’d be glad to help you get a plan in place.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market is creeping back towards the highs set in the last few weeks. Incrementally rewarding this rally might make some sense, but I’d still keep some flex in my plan.                  

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.