Check out the Farming for Profit, Not Price Conference in Nashville, TN, on January 31-February 2.
This event brings together leading minds in agriculture, finance, and trade for a weekend focused on managing risk, navigating challenging markets, and building relationships that last well beyond the event.
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Good Morning!
I hope you have all of your shopping done for Christmas. While I get a couple of things here and there, my bride does the majority of our shopping. It’s fair to say we’ve had a handful of boxes several days here lately as I go in the front door. While we’ve had more snow already this year than most winters in total, we’re not going to have a white Christmas by any means. In fact, it’s going to be 60 degrees on Christmas day according to the forecast. This weather has been all over the place. While warm temps are coming, just this past weekend we had highs barely above zero. My kids would rather have the zero and some snow than warm and muddy-and I can’t disagree with them. I know we’ll all be gathering with family over the next few days, so enjoy that time-it’s certainly a great time of year. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This week on the podcast we covered how the market has been trading with several charts showing price direction and possibilities-along with input costs and comparison’s to a year ago. Keep sending ideas on what you’d like to see covered. This week’s episode - Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (12/17/2025)
I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s Hybrids is our premier seed sponsor. We’re looking forward to their presence at our event. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary
The corn market moved lower earlier in the week, continuing its recent slide. It caught hold mid-week and was able to post a higher weekly close. Beans continued their recent slide as buyers continue to be on the sidelines. Solid demand for both corn and beans has been off-set by favorable weather in Brazil-this has certainly hurt soybean’s price direction. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.
CORN
March ‘26 corn had a weekly higher close after a nice amount of buying came in mid-week. March settled at $4.43 ¾, down ¾. This was 1 off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. March rallied 3 cents for the week. Technically, it was a good thing to see March corn settle at this level now that it’s the lead month. This is a higher weekly close than where Dec went off. It was definitely a positive to see corn rally in the face of solid weakness in the corn market. While that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll race higher, there’s no doubt some interest has developed in owning corn. What was driving the buying was talk of Chinese interest in buying some US corn. Our sources indicated they’ve bought 7-8 cargoes of corn. Hopefully, we’ll see more of this as it would certainly be supportive to the market. Regardless, we need a friendly USDA report on January. If we can get that, I assume owning corn will be more enjoyable than it’s been the last several months. Keep your flexibility on corn but consider having offers out there above the market.
DEMAND
Corn export demand reports keep coming in, with this week’s update from November 27th at 1.79 mmt. Sales are still not up-to-date just yet, but we continue to post big sales. Ethanol grind was around 3 mb higher, coming in at 110 MB. Despite the huge grind, stocks were lower. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were steady to higher on the week. While we saw a small rally on the board, basis held steady in most places. We’re still hearing of some pushes here and there, which is normal when we get out to the end of the year. What was again impressive for corn was to rally in the face of beans moving lower. There’s no doubt this impressive corn demand has the attention of some traders, and my guess is we’d be much higher if it wasn’t for the poor performance in the bean market. If you don’t move bushels by the end of the year, I think it will take some patience on this corn. However, I feel good about corn ownership for now. I’d be tempted to keep some flex but have offers out there to move some corn on a move higher. Getting March corn in the $4.60s seems like it should happen if this demand continues as we have seen.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.62, unchanged. Dec26 obviously didn’t move around much this past week. We saw it follow corn a bit lower earlier on but bounce back as the nearby months rallied. I know this price doesn’t excite anyone, so my best advice for someone wanting to hedge off some risk is to put on a strategy with plenty of flex. While I have to assume today’s price will look good next fall with another big crop, we’re a long way from that today. Given massive US and world demand, it’s hard to argue that any supply disruptions would see solid fund buying come in. I still like having offers out there and getting some of our costs covered-but have a plan in place to do so-let us know how we can help. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market showed some life but quieted down late in the week. I still like corn ownership, so keeping our eggs spread around in different baskets makes great sense to me.
BEANS
Beans are still on the struggle bus. On Friday, January beans settled down 3 at $10.49 ¼. This was 4 ¾ off the high and 2 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 26 ½ cents on the week. March beans settled at $10.59 ½. March meal settled 4.5 lower on the week at 301.1, while soy oil ended the week at 48.44, down 2.17. The bean market just can’t catch a break. While we have much improved export demand again and record crush continuing, the weather in South America hasn’t offered us many reasons to rally. With good/excellent conditions in Brazil as good as they can get, many crop estimates are coming in at 170+. There’s a solid chance they’ll again greatly out-produce their biggest ever crop, which was just last year. While beans are extremely oversold at this point, it might be tough to get a rally going again without some good fresh bullish news.
DEMAND
As with corn, we’re still seeing old export sales reports with the week ending on Nov 27th at 1.1mmt. This is a move in the right direction, but we’re still well behind the pace needed to reach the USDA goal. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH BEANS
Cash beans keep moving lower. In all honesty, I’d expect bean basis to be improving much more than we’ve seen. Given strong crush, I’d think some of these originators would be hunting beans, especially with tight-fisted growers. If you’re thinking about selling some beans, make sure your originator knows what you have and what price you’re looking for. I could see a basis push being offered in some situations, so don’t be afraid to ask for one. Otherwise, I realize it’s tough to sell in a down market, but given weather in SA, it may take a bullish USDA move in Jan and/or a big change in weather in Brazil to see these beans rally.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.67 ¾, down 20 ½ on the week. With this ’26 bean market, we’ve really taken a hit of late. Whereas many of you relayed $11 didn’t work on your farm, it’s clear a move 60 cents off the highs doesn’t look good either. I’m not in the mood to sell more beans at these prices, but I’m also well aware we need a catalyst to change this market’s direction. On a move back over $10.80, I think a person could get a good strategy on locking in a floor at the market if they’re willing to give up something above $12. If that is of interest to you, let us know and we’ll throw you some ideas on specific strategies.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market is a dog here lately. It’s extremely oversold, so a bounce has a good shot of occurring. Know your plan and get offers in place if you would be interested in hedging off some risk on a bounce.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.