Good Morning!
It’s been a nice week around our place, celebrating Christmas. While we didn’t get the oldest home, we had the other four under roof and present for the whole day at home. With my parents gone for the winter and the in-laws having it a couple of days early, it makes for a nice Christmas when we can do it at home. One of the highlights of the day was Toby, the 13-year-old, who flew a remote control plane briefly-only to stick the landing on our roof. I had to get on a extension ladder and ‘go fishing’ to latch onto it. There is a video of this in my Christmas pajama pants and new cowboy boots my son bought me-but I will not be posting that video. 😊 I again hope your Christmas has been excellent and you finish out the year strong. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This week there was no podcast with Christmas festivities. This was last week’s episode - Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (12/17/2025)
I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s Hybrids is our premier seed sponsor. We’re looking forward to their presence at our event. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary
Both corn and beans posted gains on the holiday-shortened trading week. While we often see Christmas give us a little gift from the markets, this year was nothing major-but a rally nonetheless. With excellent demand of late but no real weather story to buy, funds have been somewhat quiet. Outside markets were trading as such heading into the weekend.
CORN
March ‘26 corn had another weekly higher close-second week in a row. March settled at $4.50, down 1. This was 3 off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. March rallied 6 ¼ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market looks like it has a low in place for the time being. We have solid demand for corn when looking at both exports and ethanol grind. With world and US demand for corn at all-time records, we definitely need to see big production this coming year. Given how much the big-money players want to own commodities, mostly precious metals right now, I have to think they could end up viewing our ag commodities as a buy as long as they get a story to get them interested. Any weather event in SA or here in North America would likely be viewed as a reason to put weather premium in our markets. Therefore, I still view corn ownership as something I’d like to retain, either physical or on paper.
DEMAND
Corn export demand reports keep coming in, with this week’s update from December 11th at 1.74 mmt. Sales are still not up-to-date just yet, but we’re getting there. Ethanol grind wasn’t reported due to the holiday but will be out on Monday. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were higher on the week. While the board rallied, we didn’t see basis widen. As we get into the new year, I would expect some basis widening is possible, especially if we continue to see prices move higher. Given how much corn there will be moving, I doubt the end-user will feel much need to bid up for bushels until the winter rush dies down. I know many growers have the bin doors locked shut, but we all have some bills to pay at the same time. My thought on wanting to keep corn ownership remains, but to see corn rally, a person may have to be patient. For bushels getting sold or moved, I like owning a July call or call spread to keep a toe dipped in the water. If we see a weather event, I gotta think we’ll be glad to be in ownership of some corn.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.68 ½, up 6 ½. Dec26 is coming back up on $4.70, which is the level I didn’t want to be selling under. I would be ok possibly selling some corn in here as a true hedge for those bushels going in the bin next fall. If we can roll those to the July next fall for 30-35 cents, we could have some $5 corn basis the July. For those wanting to lock some worst-case scenarios in, I still like having an aggressive floor with a ceiling up at $5.50 or somewhere in that vicinity. We can get an aggressive strategy on a percentage of bushels fairly cheap. I like keeping flex once again-as I could see this corn market getting some life on any world weather event. However, I don’t want to be bullish without managing some risk if and when we get a rally. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market continues to work higher. I like corn ownership but also want to manage risk if and when we get additional rallies.
BEANS
Beans finally posted a weekly rally. On Friday, March beans settled down 4 at $10.72 ½. This was 10 off the high and 1 ¾ off the low. Beans rallied 13 cents on the week. March meal settled 2.6 higher on the week at 303.7, while soy oil ended the week at 49.22, up .78. The bean market looks like it may have bottomed out for now. Given some good solid buying has come into an oversold market, I suppose we could look at some sideways trading as additional rallies may be tough to come by without a good weather story out of South America. Right now, southern Argentina is the only problem area, but if it remains dry, there’s no doubt we could see bean meal and then beans see some solid support. My best guess is beans struggle without a weather story, but IF we can see corn rally, there’s no doubt a corn rally could drag beans along to an extent.
DEMAND
As with corn, we’re still seeing old export sales reports with the week ending on Dec 11th at 2.39mmt. These are impressive sales and finally some reflection of Chinese business. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH BEANS
Cash beans finally stabilized. It was nice to see basis improved in some areas, even as we saw a rally on the board. Given a ton of beans will be moving over the next few weeks, I would expect bean basis to be a bit on the weak side. However, with crush margins staying positive, those close to a crush plant might see those cash bids stay strong. It’s safe to say the bean ownership is much lower than corn at this time-but for those with beans to sell, I’d keep offers in place at levels you can live with. I’m not real bullish beans, but I could see a spike higher here and there. If you have your offers in place, you just might get them filled.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.82 ¼, up 14 ½ on the week. It was good to see ’26 beans finally catch a bid. While we’re still 40 cents below the high for Nov26, it’s not hard to imagine a rally back close to and potentially over $11. We have to know at what level we can sell and scratch out a profit. It’s the time to do your homework if you haven’t already to know at a reasonable yield what price you need to lock in. I’d like to have some flex with beans as well, so let us know if we can help you set up a marketing plan that has your worst-case scenarios locked in-while not putting all your eggs in one basket.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market finally had some buying come in. While it’s better than going down, I’d be cautious as to get bulled up just yet. Keep offers current both on old and new-crop.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.