Good Morning!
I hope you’ve had a great week. I took some days off to go to the Dominican with my wife-we went on a Beck’s trip and had a great time. Taking a few days off is a good way to get refreshed, and it had been quite some time since we’d gone somewhere just the two of us. I had to fly separate from Tif as I spoke the day after I returned in Des Moines. I flew directly in there and made a presentation on Thursday morning, but I finally got to sleep in my own bed that night. Around home it’s in the 50s and our ground is greying off-heck it looks like we could plant next week if it wasn’t February still. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This past week there was no podcast as I attempted to not work while on vacation.
The corn market posted a small rally on the week, while beans were strong. A buzz around Chinese soybean purchases has led to a nice pop in the market. Weather in South America is good for the most part, with some lingering dryness in Argentina and a bit too much rain in Brazil, where they’re trying to harvest and plant safrinha corn. Outside markets were likely a bullish influence.
CORN
March ‘26 corn was quiet overall on the week. Marchsettled at $4.31 ¾, up ½. This was 1 off the high and 2 ¼ off the low. Marchrallied 1 ½ cents for the week. Technically, we look to be in more of aconsolidation mode on old corn, while new-crop continues to build some steam.When it comes to this corn market, we have to remember how much old-crop thereis to come to market sooner or later. While the funds bought 23k contracts lastweek, they’re still short 57k as of this past Tuesday when the report istabulated. Looking at the commercials, they’re only short 239k contracts, whichin my opinion is a far cry from where I’d expect them to be. A ton of farmerselling will occur in the next few months, which should limit gains, especiallyfrom a cash bid standpoint. I like some corn ownership due to incredibledemand, but big-time improvements in cash is tough to expect until we see moreof this corn out of the growers’ hands
DEMAND
Corn export demand was solid this week with huge export sales. This week we came in at 2.07 mmt. Corn grind for ethanol surged to 109m, which is around 15 mb more than a week ago. Stocks were higher. Basis was steady/improved:
My local basis: 19 under March (no change)
Decatur: 5 over the March (2 cents improved)
St. Louis River: 21 over March (5 cents wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices aren’t doing much. While in some areas basis has improved a bit, for the most part, it’s been stagnant with the small rally on the board. The river has cooled a bit, likely due to so much movement from the grower. While the post was 21 over, in the last couple of weeks we’ve seen 40 over paid around the STL market. With such a strong export pace, we’ll likely see this sort of action in basis at times. When we get a hot bid, the grower likely rewards the market, again due to how much corn we know they have in their possession. I like having some corn ownership, but at the same time, I’d like to transfer some of that to a paper position if you get to a point where you’re ok with the price. I’m not saying a guy has to cover it all, butkeeping in the game until we get past the safrinha crop and US acreagediscussion on some bushels seems wise to me.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.64 ½, up 6 ¾. Dec26 continues to show some life. With such strong demand, it seems some in the industry understand we have to have big production when we have such strong demand. IF the USDA is correct with a 16.4+ bbu demand structure, it’s important to note the only time we’ve raised a crop bigger than that was last year. Given we had 98.8 million acres at a record yield 7 bushels better than ever, it’s tough to think we can do that very often. While in some areas people tell me corn acres will be up from a year ago, I hear the opposite in many areas, particularly where production wasn’t a record. There’s no doubt we have some liquidity issues in farm country, so I assume it could limit acres somewhat. I like hedging bin corn as I’ve talked about lately, while keeping some flex on a good portion of bushels the more aggressive we get in selling. Call if you have questions on how to best manage your risk. Here is the link fo rmore info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market is trying to hold together in the face of big farmer selling. The rally for new-crop is notable and risk-management should be considered, especially if we keep the ball rolling.
BEANS
Beans were continuing their little rally before Friday took the gains away. On Friday, March beans settled down 8 at $10.64 ¼. This was 9 ¾ off the high and 3 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 3 ½ cents on the week. March meal settled 6.3 lower on the week at 293.6, while soy oil ended the week at 53.51, down .48.The bean market continues to struggle with the thoughts of a big crop out of Brazil, and while Argentina received some rain this past week, it wasn’t enough to take away the dryness they’ve created. This issue is Brazil is likely to raise 3-4 times the size of the Argentine crop and Brazil looks excellent still. While crush remains strong, bolstering domestic demand, exports are backing off as Chinese purchases are getting less frequent than we’d become accustomed to. The bean market is going to struggle if corn can’t get a rally put together in my opinion. Given the fundamentals, it’s tough to expect a rally for beans with world supply likely steady to improved while US exports are likely to be disappointing this year. I’m not giving up on beans getting some life, but at the same time, I still feel like selling incrementally IF we see a rally would be wise for both old and new-crop.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were poor at 282 kmt. It’s noshock as Chinese purchases have slowed down so much. Basis was steady:
My local beans: 22 under March (no change)
Decatur: 5 over the March (5 cents wider)
River: 24 over the March (5 cents wider)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans have seen some appreciation here lately. With what I previously mentioned, it’s tough to think we have a bunch more upside without some production issues, which don’t look to be likely. I gotta think this rally is a great chance to get down to gambling bushels, but that’s just my opinion. Our program has us down to what I would call gambling bushels, and I would have to think that’s a good way to look at this. I always go back to fundamentals and while the US could have tighter stocks than we thought, world stocks aren’t likely to be tight anytime soon with a huge SA crop on the way.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.13 ½, up 19 ½ on the week. New beans settling over $11 on the board is notable in my opinion. While few if any can get a fall bid over $11, this is the highest we’ve been on a weekly close in a few months. My thoughts on new beans are similar as to what they always are. If you can’t call this a profit, we’re a long way from harvest. If you know these prices work, it warrants some thoughts on hedging risk. We must remember Brazil raises the biggest bean crop in the world, and it appears we’ve locked that in for the most part. Most estimates on Brazil are 180ish mmt, so a record once again. While a US weather problem would be bullish for sure, legging into sales at profitable levels is a tough strategy to beat. Let us know if we can help you sort through this as we realize how tough it’s been to market-especially these last couple of years.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market has provided some opportunity here. I like hedging off risk on rallies, so it may warrant consideration.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place.
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.