Good Afternoon!
I hope your week is going well so far. It was nice to have no markets on Monday as we were able to catch up on some stuff around home we haven’t had time for. I went and spoke at a morning meeting in Springfield then had the rest of the day free. Next week is Commodity Classic, and I know several of you are going. Please come by and see us at the AgMarket booth. Also, you may try to head to the Morning Riser on Thursday morning-it’s at 7 am featuring Joe Vaclavik and his sidekick Mackenzie, who will record a YouTube podcast picking apart a 15 minute presentation I’ll make to get us started. We look forward to seeing you down there. Keep in touch. For more information on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The markets were closed on Monday but opened on the overnight down across the board. Fortunately, beans found their footing while corn spent the session on the defensive. With a glut of corn in the farmers’ hands, it’s put some pressure on the corn market. Beans are still benefiting from some enthusiasm with potential Chinese purchases along with some harvest delays in Brazil. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
Corn – The corn market started the week on the defensive. March corn closed 5 ½ lower at $4.26 ¼. This was 5 off the high and ¼ off the low. Corn export inspections were large and above expectations at 1.492 mmt. This export pace has been impressive, both on the sales and shipments sides. If we continue with this torrid pace, the likelihood will grow we can hit the lofty USDA goal of 3.3 bbu. This cash market has been tough of late. While we’ve seen some support for prices on the board, basis continues to be a dog-and why wouldn’t it? Given how much corn the producer is still holding onto, it’s tough to expect any sort of rally when it comes to cash prices. I’d leg into sales if you can get a price you can live with and hope for better days as we chew through this supply. For new-crop, I’d have to assume many can live with $4.60 or better for Dec corn. For bin bushels, I like a straight-up hedge, while keeping flex the more aggressive we get. Dec26 corn settled 4 ½ lower at $4.60.
Soybeans – Soybeans saw both sides of unchanged before moving higher. March beans were up 1 at $10.34. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 8 ¼ off the low. March soybean meal was down 3.4 at 305.8, while soy oil was up .21 at 57.29. The weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 1.203 mmt, which was above expectations as well. It appears we’re moving quite a bit of product given both corn and bean shipments are so strong-especially considering how low the river levels are. Argentina’s weather has improved with some rain while forecasts continue to show possible improvement in days ahead. Brazil has too much rain in some areas, especially considering harvest is going on. The bean market is definitely stronger than I would have expected, so getting caught up on sales makes sense to me, whether old or new-crop. We’re heavily sold on old-crop and up to 60% on new, so as you can see, we’ve been managing risk by legging into risk-management on these rallies. On Tuesday, Nov26 beans closed 4 higher at $11.17 ½.
Matt Bennett
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