Good Morning!
I hope all is well in your part of the world. I’ve traveled down to Texas a couple of days before Commodity Classic to see some family, as both Tif and I have family in the Houston area. While we had a little rain on some farms this past week, some didn’t get anything at all, which is a bit disappointing as dry as we are. In some areas where no rain has occurred, we’re seeing some gas go on. It sounds crazy to say this, but there’s not too much moisture, it’s sealing. But I would never have guessed we could be this dry in February. At Commodity Classic this week, I’m looking forward to seeing a ton of familiar faces and meeting some new ones to boot. If you’re down there, Joe Vaclavik, Mackenzie Johnston, and I will be doing the Early Riser on Thursday at 7:00 a.m. This is the 14th year in a row for me to do this program, but the first with Joe, and with his following. I’m sure it will be a full-house. If you’re down there, I hope you can join us. We’re taking the two youngest kids along; they enjoy all the free stuff at the show and just getting to go along for the ride. I know not a lot of people drag their kids around as we do, ut I wouldn’t have it any other way.
This past week on the podcast, we got caught up as we hadn’t done one the previous week. Here’s the link. Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (2/17/2026)
The corn market lost a little ground but ended on a good note Friday, while beans rallied some while giving back some to close the week. Beans got hit a bit with the decision from the Supreme Court to strike down how Trump imposed tariffs since he took office. Outside markets were likely a bullish influence.
CORN
March 2026 corn was under pressure throughout the week but posted gains on Friday. March settled at $4.27 ½, up 1 ¾. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. March rallied 4 ¼ cents for the week. Technically, we look to be in a minor downtrend after the post-January report rally. It makes sense given the time of year and how much corn sits in the farmer’s hands. It’s interesting but not surprising to see December corn perform a little better. With a massive amount of corn to chew through between now and harvest and demand so stout, it likely makes a cash rally tough to hold together, while the market knows we need to hold onto as many acres as possible. The USDA Outlook Forum posted a forecast of 94 million acres at a 183 yield. This results in a carry-out number of 1.837 bbu. It’s notable they lower demand from a total of 16.47 bbu to 16.07 bbu from this marketing year to next, with an average cash price predicted at $4.20. One thing is for sure: the way we’ve slowed down record demand in the past is with a price rally. Let’s hope we get a little more life in the market this year.
DEMAND
Corn export demand was big again, but off from last week for export sales. We came in at 1.47 mmt. Corn grind for ethanol was up a bit to just over 109 m. Stocks were higher. Basis was steady:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were a bit softer this past week. Even with a small loss on the board, we didn’t see much in the way of basis gain. It’s a tough time to expect much in that regard, especially in a year where we raised such a massive crop. I still think corn could have some value moving forward, as this demand isn’t backing off at all. However, when the farmer is holding so much cash corn, it’s going to make it an uphill battle to see big gains, in my opinion. If we see a nice rally basis the board, we’ll likely see cash prices stagnant as basis would almost certainly widen on rallies. I’d continue looking for areas where we can move some corn and make sure our originators know what we have on hand and what it might take to buy it.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.64 ½, so it didn’t change on a weekly basis. On Friday, December was up 3 cents, wiping out losses accrued earlier in the week. December is holding steady to keep acres high in my opinion. If the USDA is correct in their forecast of 94 million acres, there’s a very real chance we see some sort of rally. I think they’re too low, to be honest. In fact, I’m more like 95-96 right now, but we don’t have an official forecast out just yet. I’d like to keep some flex in our marketing plan and still consider hedging some of our bin bushels, with the thought that we’ll roll those hedges to July eventually. Call if you have questions on how to best manage your risk. HERE is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market is fairly dead when it comes to old crop, while the new crop is holding steady. It may be best to consider moving some corn on any pops while hedging off some new corn, maintaining some flex as we get more aggressive.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans had a nice week going and were trading higher on Friday before the Supreme Court announcement. However, after the tariffs were shot down, March beans moved sharply lower and then moderated at $11.37 ½ on the close, down 3 ½. This was 10 ¾ off the high and 16 off the low. Soybeans rallied 4 ½ cents on the week. March meal settled 6.2 higher on the week at 309.8, while soy oil ended the week at 58.92, up 1.84. The bean market continues to hold together, even amid uncertainty about this export/tariff deal. It will be interesting to see how we trade this coming week after the dust has settled a bit. I maintain that this rally we’ve seen here lately has been somewhat of a gift, as this Brazilian crop is still huge, keeping world supplies more than adequate. So, a rally based on the world balance sheet would be unlikely, and the prospects of a tight US balance sheet due to ‘forced’ Chinese purchases could be in jeopardy. Ultimately, a person has to look at what this rally has done for them, whether for old or new crop, and consider hedging some risk.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were up substantially at 798 kmt. It’s no shock that Chinese purchases have slowed down so much. Basis was steady:
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans have cooled off a bit, but were still higher on the week. With basis holding steady, bids improved. Given that the export program was revived with the Chinese purchases, a person must consider what it looks like in the event that this deal falls apart, and we see some cancellations. I watched the press conference with President Trump, and he assured those in attendance that he will still impose tariffs as he has, but he’ll have to be more strategic. Apparently, the justices acknowledged he could tariff countries, but didn’t see it as being legal the way he was doing it in a broad-based way. Ultimately, I look at the fundamentals, so for me, I like selling cash beans 60+ cents better than where they were. I know that sounds elementary, but sometimes we have to remove the emotion and look at it that way.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $11.15, up 1 ½ on the week. New beans with another weekly close over $11 is giving us plenty of opportunity to get caught up on sales. The USDA Outlook forum projected acres at 85 million and a yield of 53 Bu./A., resulting in a carry-out of 355 mb. Their projected price is $10.30, which is a dime better than this current marketing year. If their projection is correct for acres, I think it will be a tough hill to climb seeing fall prices rally without a major weather event. We have to remember Brazil produces significantly more soybeans than we do at this point, so with their crop essentially locked in, world supplies are deemed ample if not burdensome. For me personally, I like locking in a worst-case scenario at a price I can live with while keeping the flex to participate if we get blessed with a rally.
Soybean Market Theme: The bean market continues to give us a shot at selling old and new beans at much better levels than just a couple of weeks ago. If we turn our nose up at it with no risk management, we might regret it later.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.