Good Morning!
I hope you’re getting a good start to 2026. I know for us it’s been a busy week. While I had a busy travel week, this time of year, it’s just the way it is. I spoke four times this week in Springfield, IL before heading to Iowa and Nebraska. While I’d like to rest up a bit, I’ll be in Minnesota for a couple of presentations, head back to Nebraska and then onto Ohio for Kentucky Commodity Conference. Those Nebraska guys sure enjoyed ribbing me about their Huskers beating my Illini on our home court a couple of weeks ago-and I was there to watch it unfortunately. One thing is for sure-I enjoy meeting every one of you-even those Big Red fans. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This week we talked about Monday’s upcoming report for the Beck’s podcast. Here is this past week’s episode – Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (1/6/2026) - YouTube
I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s Hybrids is our premier seed sponsor. We’re looking forward to their presence at our event. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary
Both corn and beans had a nice week after last week’s rough go. While I’d like to report a change in direction, my gut tells me the buying we saw this week is positioning in front of the biggest report of the year here on Monday. Weather overall looks conducive to a big crop in South America, so no help there. Outside markets were likely a mixed influence.
CORN
March ‘26 corn had a nice week, rebounding from a tough one a week ago. March settled at $4.45 ¾, down ¼. This was 1 ¾ off the high and 2 off the low. March rallied 8 ¼ cents for the week. Technically, we rebounded well after breaking support a week ago. With a solid move higher on Monday, we set the tone for the week. As I said earlier, we likely saw some position-evening going on with traders getting to a risk-averse position heading into the report. Estimates seem to agree on a neutral to friendly report with average ending stocks at 1.98 bbu versus last month’s 2.029 with total production 200 mb on average as the trade is estimating corn yield at 184. While I hope we get a bullish report, it’s tough to know either way. A supportive market is exactly what we need given how challenging these markets have been the last couple of years. However, if the USDA gives us a bearish report, it will set the tone for another rough go. If you need to manage some risk ahead of this report, you might consider selling/hedging what you need and buying a cheap call close to the market. We’re looking at Feb calls as this report’s reaction is likely to be a bit more volatile than what we generally see. Stay flexible but willing to hedge risk on rallies.
DEMAND
Corn export demand is finally caught up. This week’s sales were poor to say the least-a marketing-year low at 378 kmt. For ethanol grind we had two weeks of data this week with 110mb and 107mb reported. Stocks have crept higher. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH CORN
Cash prices moved higher on the week. While we saw some basis widening, it didn’t take all of the rally away. Given the time of year, rallies are many times met with basis widening, but a good sign is the river actually narrowing. With export demand remaining strong, I assume USDA will keep exports where they are even though our pace analysis calls for an increase. Most in our business feel this export program is front-loaded and possibly even overstated. While I hope for a bullish report, I don’t mind selling some cash in here and re-owning with Feb $4.50 calls. At a nickel or so, it’ sa cheap way to own corn if we happen to get a bullish report. If it’s bearish, we’d be glad to have moved forward with making some sales and locking in worst-case scenarios. I still like corn ownership longer-term as any hint of weather issues for the Safrinha or US crop would likely be met with solid buying. While flexibility is important, getting offers in at levels you can live with is just as important.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.64, up 5 ½. Dec26 posted a nice recovery as well, but we’re not quite where I want to be hedging. I’m hopeful we can see a rally on Monday and establish ourselves above $4.70, but there’s no way to know just how this plays out. The issue with a bearish report, amongst the obvious, is it would likely set the tone for the next few weeks. I can’t imagine seeing a Feb average below what we saw a year ago at $4.70 given the costs we have, but the market doesn’t really care if we make money. Again, on bin bushels, I’d consider a true hedge at $4.70 or above. This would keep your flexibility on where you’re delivering and set you up to roll to the July27 at $5 or more IF we see the same type of carry we had this past fall. Given we’ll be likely carrying in way more corn into harvest than we did last year, with an average crop, I assume we’ll see big carry again next fall. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market’s direction will likely be easier to predict once we see the numbers on Monday. Keep offers in place but stay flexible.
BEANS
Beans got back some of what it lost the previous week with better market action this week. On Friday, March beans settled up 1 ½ at $10.62 ½. This was 6 ½ off the high and 1 off the low. Beans rallied 16 ¾ cents on the week. March meal settled 7.7 higher on the week at 303.7, while soy oil ended the week at 49.69, up .39. The bean market finally found some buying this past week. While weather overall in South America is too good to expect a big rally, we still see Argentina coming up short, especially in the southern half. This is likely the reason we saw some life in the meal market due to how much soybean meal Argentina typically exports-more often than not, they’ve exported over half of the world’s meal. The report is thought to be mixed from the trade as they’re predicting a yield adjustment lower from 53 to 52.7 but for stocks to increase from 290 mb to 303. Many feel the demand could get adjusted lower, particularly export demand. Considering US beans are pushing $1 higher per bushel than Brazilian beans, that rationale is tough to argue with. Let’s hope for a bullish USDA report, either for corn or beans. If it’s for corn, I have to think we could see beans supported on a corn rally.
DEMAND
As with corn, we’re now caught up on sales with this week at at 878kmt. This is a low number as well for beans. Hopefully we’ll see an uptick but US beans are priced out of the market currently. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH BEANS
Cash beans rallied on the week. With the higher board price, we didn’t see basis get hit and in some cases it improved. This is a good sign. While crush in the US is solid as can be, the interior facilities aren’t having to bid against the river due to the export program being subpart. I’m of the opinion a person have their offers in place on all but some gambling stocks. I struggle to get bullish beans, but if we can get a price you can live with or even break even with, I think we should take s strong look at it.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.71 ¾, up 9 on the week. While we were getting as close to $11 as we’ve seen in a couple of weeks, we can’t seem to sustain any momentum with these new beans. I like selling some ’26 beans on a rally up to and over $11 but only if it works on your farm. There’s no doubt for some it may not work, so with us this far form harvest, I don’t want to be locking losses in just yet. As we all know, this bean market can rip higher when we least expect it. Fundamentally, the US has a fairly tight balance sheet while the world isn’t seeing stocks go up. This is notable when Brazil had a record crop last year. My hope is we see yield back off a bit and the balance sheet in the US tighten on Monday. If that happens, we should see some support, even with a big Brazilian crop. Look for levels you can hedge off some risk but keep flex if you push your percentage of sales.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market had a better week but didn’t get last week’s losses back. Let’s hope we see a bullish report on Monday. If we do, don’t get too bulled up-it might be best to look at a rally as a good opportunity to sell or hedge off some risk.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.