January 21st Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week is getting off to a great start. For our ag markets, we have a holiday-shortened weekend, so I had most of Monday at home. As has been the case of late, several have wanted to talk about the metals markets, and with outside markets trading, I was plenty busy. This past weekend, we went to Chicago for a b-ball tourney for our 8th grader, Toby. Our middle child also turned 21, so we had three of the five in tow, trying to kill two birds with one stone. I should have given more thought to a birthday dinner in that part of the world, though, man, they’re proud of their steaks up there. We haven’t had precipitation for a while, and we’re getting plenty dry. If we don’t get much moisture in the next six weeks, you’ll see plenty of folks planting at least beans in March. It’s hard to believe it, but spring is right around the corner. For more information on AgMarket, CLICK HERE.  https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

For those still wanting to sign up for the conference, the dates are February 1 and 2. CLICK HERE to learn more. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary

The markets didn’t go down on Monday, but that’s because there were no markets! Tuesday saw both corn and beans trade either side of unchanged, with corn settling mixed and beans down a bit. While South American weather has been good for the most part this growing season, dryness has become an issue in Argentina, dropping crop conditions the last couple of weeks. Global tensions are high with President Trump threatening tariffs on the EU if they don’t allow the sale of Greenland to the US. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .762 at 98.439
• March crude oil settled up 1.02 at 60.36
• The DOW settled down 880 points at 48,667       

CORN

The corn market started quiet on Tuesday, with March corn closing 1 lower at $4.23 ¾. This was 1 ¾ off both the high and low. Corn export inspections were again strong, above expectations, at 1.484 mmt. With inspections solid, we continue to run at a pace well ahead of the USDA goal. With export sales and shipments so good and corn usage for ethanol at a record this past week, cheap corn is trying to fix our issue of cheap corn. The big question is: will we see cash corn values increase anytime soon? I believe that with any issues with global production, we should see some buying interest in corn. If that corn is in the bin, I’d hold on for now and see how basis reacts when the winter rush is over. For fall corn, I assume we’ll have support for now to keep hold of as many acres as possible due to legitimate concerns about profit margins. Speaking of fall, December 2026 corn settled ¾ higher at $4.50 ½.                          

SOYBEANS

Soybeans saw both sides unchanged before settling into lower trade later in the day. March beans were down 4 ¾ at $10.53. This was 8 ¾ off the high and 1 off the low. March soybean meal was up 1.6 at 291.6, while soy oil was down .05 at 52.56. The weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 1.336 mmt, which was above expectations. Bean shipments have picked up big-time as Chinese purchases have fortunately been getting shipped. With Secretary Bessent commenting that his Chinese counterpart told him they’d achieved 12 mmt this year, there are questions about whether we’ll see any purchases from them anytime soon. Given that Brazilian-origin beans are much cheaper, there’s a chance we won’t sell any beans until closer to harvest. However, this whole Chinese deal has been so up in the air that it’s tough to tell what might happen.

Hopefully, we’ll see them buying beans here and there, which should be supportive to the market. For old or new beans, having offers in place is recommended, while keeping flexibility on new beans, as this bean market could get volatile with any weather issues and/or a corn rally. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 5 lower at $10.64.   

Matt Bennett 
815-665-0462 – Work 
@chief321 – Twitter  
mbennett@agmarket.net – E-mail