Good afternoon!
I hope you’ve had a great week. My week wasn’t too bad either. I’m trying to get home after speaking in Phoenix on Friday, and as I write, my hope is the connecting flight gets me on. Winter travel is not fun at all. This coming week we have our conference, which there are still a few seats remaining. To get there I have every day but Monday with presentations, so it’s going to be a busy one. We have one more ballgame for our 8th grader, and unfortunately it’s on Saturday, when I’ll already be in Nashville. Hey, I only missed two this year, but it’s still two too many. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This week we talked about a whole host of items on the Beck’s podcast. Here is this past week’s episode – Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (1/20/2026)
On the conference, Beck’s Hybrids is our premier seed sponsor. We have some seats yet. Let us know if you’d like to attend in Nashville this weekend. Click here to learn more.
The corn and bean markets both rallied on the week. With some concern about hot and dry weather and how it’s affected the crops in Argentina, traders have backed off the bearish vibes a bit. Outside markets were likely a bullish influence.
CORN
March ‘26 corn had a good week overall, finishing with nice gains on Friday. March settled at $4.30 ½, up 6 ½. This was ¾ off the high and 8 off the low. March rallied 5 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, we bounced back above one moving average, the five day, and have recuperated over a dime off the post-report lows. It was a kick in the teeth from our politicians to withhold E15 from this bill they’re trying to pass. What a better time than now to bolster domestic consumption of the corn we’re raising? I’m beyond disappointed in this development but remain hopeful someone with some sense can make progress and get year-round E15 passed! With demand as strong as can be right now, traders were paying attention to Argentina’s weather and how it’s affecting their corn crop. With crop ratings declining 12% good/excellent this week, 11% last week and 7% the week before, we’ve seen this crop head south fast. The video I recorded with Eric Snodgrass this week showed little chance for improvement as the forecast has shifted drier than previous runs. It seems to me ’26 acres will be robust, even with the profitability issues. However, we need big acres and a big yield the way this demand is rolling along. I’d consider some patience as we see how SA pans out.
DEMAND
Corn export demand was a marketing year high. This week’s sales came in at a massive 4.01 mmt-over twice an impressive number a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol backed off from last week’s record to 110 mb. Stocks were again higher. Basis was steady/improved:
CASH CORN
Cash prices worked a little higher this past week. With the rally on the board, we saw cash prices appreciate from a week ago levels in many areas while basis widened a bit in others. I like the action this past week, so I’d give this SA weather a chance to see if we can get any more pop. On declines, I’d think basis could work a little in our direction as cash movement in some areas isn’t all that robust. With this being said, I’d try to incrementally sell some bushels here and there. We’ve had a nice little bounce off the lows already, but expecting a big rally is tough in the absence of major weather issues in not only Argentina but Brazil once the safrinha crop starts going in the ground. Patience for now with offers in place is how I’d consider handling this for now.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.55 ¼, up 5 ½. Dec26 performed well this past week, getting to just a dime below where we were when that report came out. We’re getting back closer to levels a person can put a true hedge on for bushels that go in the bin next fall-the thought is we would consider rolling those out to July at a 30-35 cent carry if that opportunity presents itself again this year. As far as selling corn, it all boils down to whether you can make it work for your operation. I still think some volatility could enter this year due to strong demand, so getting too sold without some flex could sting. IF we get a nice rally this summer, we all need to take as much advantage of it as possible with how these last few years have gone. While I think acres could come down some, my estimate keeps creeping higher the more growers I visit with-I’m 95+ currently and trying to get a handle on just how many acres we may see in ’26. Stay on your toes and consider how to best lock in a worst-case scenario for your operation. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market has an uphill battle after the USDA report. We have huge demand-this will come in handy when we see any sort of production issues, either in SA or the US.
BEANS
Beans had a nice week with some gains. On Friday, March beans settled up 3 ¾ at $10.67 ¾. This was 3 ¾ off the high and 6 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 10 cents on the week. March meal settled 9.9 higher on the week at 299.9, while soy oil ended the week at 53.99, up 1.38. The bean market certainly has a big crop out of Brazil to deal with, but with some dryness in southern Brazil as well as most of Argentina heading in the wrong direction, some weather premium has manifested. While the forecast from USDA is for a 178 mmt crop and some are predicting even higher, some estimates in Brazil are starting to back off even below USDA due to too much rain in some areas and not enough farther south. We must remember with the big estimates for Brazil, world stocks aren’t predicted to increase much if any. Demand is still solid, but with China pulling back on pork production, the old days of yearly increases in Chinese demand for beans and bean products are likely over. Thankfully, other world buyers have surfaced-but, as with corn, we need to see our government continue to ramp up domestic consumption if we’re going to keep planting beans here in the US as exports are likely to shrink in comparison to those from SA. I’m hopeful we’ll see beans rally on SA weather some more. If we do, some risk-management or incremental sales on rallies make sense.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were huge at 2.45 mmt. This is a marketing year high and likely due to big Chinese purchases of late. Basis was steady:
CASH BEANS
Cash beans also gained some value on the week with the rally on the board and basis holding together. While bean rallies are tough to expect with a huge Brazilian crop forecasted, weather issues in Argentina typically produce some strength in the market. With crop ratings dipping a ton for beans as well, a person should assume some support for beans could continue-especially if they stay dry. While I wouldn’t want to have a ton of bushels sitting around, I think it’s reasonable to consider seeing how this weather plays out on some or most of the beans a grower has left.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.82, up 13 on the week. New beans in my opinion should warrant some attention now that we’ve moved back closer to $11. I wouldn’t get too locked into a price that has no flex, but at the same time, a worst-case scenario position up here closer to $11 could get a person in much better shape than we saw just a couple of weeks ago. I’d consider putting an offer in to buy an $11 put vs a $10 put and $12 call at a price you can live with on a small percentage of bushels-IF you don’t have much or anything sold yet. We’re 40% marketed so far in our program, and I’m good with that for now. However, if a person can make money at whatever level it is we’re trading at, I see no issue pushing the percentage a bit IF you have some flex in the plan. Let us know if we can help you put something together.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market had a good week as compared to the previous week. Have offers current for both old and new crop and keep some flex.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.