January 28th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope all is well for you. I know most of us had a bout of winter weather the last few days, and for some of you farther south, ice was a major issue. For us, it’s been 8-10 inches of snow and colder than can be-for us anyway. We’ve had two of our three cattle waterers freeze up, so that’s been fun to deal with. On Monday, it was 20 below with the wind-chill, and that was enough to make fixing those flat-out miserable. My wife asks me in times like these why I have cattle. In all honesty, I enjoy them, but this week has been a challenge to say the least. We have our conference this week, but I am doing meetings every day leading up to it. It’s a busy week but fortunately, the first couple are local so I can be home in the evenings. Stay in touch and please reach out with any questions. For more information on AgMarket, click here. 

For those still wanting to sign up for the conference, it’s this weekend-we still have a few seats if you'd like to join us. 

The markets were up and then down on Monday while corn was dead on Tuesday as beans posted enough gains to wipe out Monday’s losses. Weather issues in South America continue to be on traders’ minds as Argentina continues hot and dry. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled down 247 at 95.610.
• March crude oil settled up 76 at 62.39.
• The DOW settled down 406 points at 49,159.  

Corn – The corn market started out with a quiet tone on Tuesday with March corn closing 1 ¾ lower at $4.26 ½. This was 3 ¼ off the high and ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were again strong and above expectations at 1.51 mmt. This is above a week ago as well and continues to push the narrative that we’re running well ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA goal of 3.2 bbu. With strong corn grind for ethanol these last few weeks and margins staying conducive to more grind, corn demand looks solid as can be. The weather in South America should be closely monitored as Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle with a lack of moisture and most forecasts seeing limited relief. IF we’d see Argentina’s corn crop lose ground along with any potential issues for the safrinha crop, this corn market could see strong support moving into spring. We may see the trade inject some weather premium into corn, particularly if US corn acres aren’t at 96 or above. I’d give this weather some time before getting real aggressive on old or new-and I still like having some corn ownership, particularly if it’s limited-risk. Speaking of fall, Dec26 corn settled ¾ lower at $4.54 ¼.

Soybeans – Soybeans saw both sides of unchanged before moving higher. March beans were up 5 ½ at $10.67 ¼. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 8 ¾ off the low. March soybean meal was down .3 at 294, while soy oil was up .52 at 54.41. The weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 1.324 mmt, which was above expectations and a shade below a week ago. While Argentina’s bean crop is also heading south, Brazil’s first-crop soybeans continue to look like a huge crop. It looks like overall production in South America could be robust, so a lid on bean prices could be present, especially if we don’t see a rally in the corn market. For old beans, I’d consider keeping offers current, while for new beans, I see no reason to get in a big hurry if you can’t lock in some net profit margin at APH yields. On Tuesday, Nov26 beans closed 3 ¾ higher at $10.82 ¾.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett 

815-665-0462 – Work 

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