Good Morning!
I hope your week has been a good one. I’ve been all around this week, and now I’m on the way to Nashville for the AgMarket conference. I’m looking forward to seeing a bunch of you and enjoying some fellowship this weekend into Monday. Fortunately, I can bring my family this weekend, but we’re all arriving at three different times due to the busy schedules. Basketball season is almost over for our 8th grader Toby, and that will free up some time to where they will travel pretty much everywhere I go the rest of the speaking season. Home-schooling gives us quite a bit of flexibility there, and the kids get to experience things they couldn’t otherwise. It’s been good meeting so many of you this winter-I look forward to meeting more of you before the season is done. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This week on the podcast we went over a PowerPoint detailing the latest with our grain markets. Here is this past week’s episode.
The corn and bean markets both lost a couple cents on the week. It was quiet overall, with gains up until Friday, when we saw them evaporate in a risk-off day. With Argentina still dry, concern about production is still present. Outside markets were likely a bullish influence.
CORN
March ‘26 corn was up for some time then moved lower on Friday, cementing a small loss for the week. March settled at $4.28 ¼, down2 ½. This was 3 ½ off the high and 3 off the low. March lost 2 ¼ cents for the week. Technically, we were in a nice uptrend, but that looks a bit subsequent as of Friday’s close. While we had bounced above the 5-day moving average and tested the 10-day, we settled the week just above the 5-day. This corn market likely had some tailwinds of late due to a weak dollar, but in the last half of the week, the dollar worked back higher. To get a real nice move higher, we’ll likely need some help from South American weather-while Argentine dryness would support, any issues with the safrinha crop in Brazil would be much more impactful. Overall, corn seems to have some support, but it’s tough to be bullish this time of year with these fundamentals. I’d keep offers current and keep your flexibility, especially with regards to new-crop.
DEMAND
Corn export demand was a big number but less than half of last week’s marketing-year high. This week’s sales came in at 1.65 mmt. Corn grind for ethanol backed off less than a million-bushels from last week to 109mb. Stocks were lower. Basis was steady/improved:
• My local basis: 19 under March (a penny improved)
• Decatur: 3 over the March (2 cents wider)
• St. Louis River: 30 over March (10 cents improved)
CASH CORN
Cash prices didn’t move much this last week due to the quiet board. While the river has a hot basis, likely due to a strong export market, interior basis levels haven’t followed along much just yet. It’s a tough time to expect basis to work higher, even if we see the board work lower. Cash corn is moving right now, even with inclement weather in the Midwest, so basis isn’t likely to improve anytime soon. However, personally I want to see how this South American weather situation works out, especially with cash movement likely to slow down within the next few weeks. We typically see basis improve from this winter rush into the spring/early summer, so I’m going to give this cash corn a chance for now. We must realize if SA weather is normal/good, a corn rally will be tough to come by. However, personally, the remainder of my corn in the bin I prefer to stay patient for the time being.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.56, up¼. Dec26 held together a little better than old-crop, and I’d imagine some of that has to do with the trade knowing we need to have decent corn acres. The best thing for the market would be to see acres under 95 million acres, but that may be a tough task. Given the ability for growers to insure more revenue with crop insurance on less dollars, it seems many of the growers I’ve been in front of so far this winter are looking at staying heavy corn in some areas especially in the western-corn-belt. Illinois and east I expect plenty of corn-to-beans and vice-versa with some growers opting for heavier beans due to the outlay of money it takes to plant beans. I still like a strategy to lock in a strong floor with a chance to participate in upside. I also like a true hedge with the thought of rolling to the July with what we assume is a good carry next fall. Call if you have questions on how to best manage your risk. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market seemed to pause the small rally we’ve seen of late. It may be tough to see a rally anytime soon in the absence of SA weather problems. Keep offers current and look to manage risk on any upward move.
BEANS
Beans were continuing their little rally before Friday took the gains away. On Friday, March beans settled down 8 at $10.64 ¼. This was 9 ¾ off the high and 3 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 3 ½ cents on the week. March meal settled 6.3 lower on the week at 293.6, while soy oil ended the week at 53.51, down .48.The bean market continues to struggle with the thoughts of a big crop out of Brazil, and while Argentina received some rain this past week, it wasn’t enough to take away the dryness they’ve created. This issue is Brazil is likely to raise 3-4 times the size of the Argentine crop and Brazil looks excellent still. While crush remains strong, bolstering domestic demand, exports are backing off as Chinese purchases are getting less frequent than we’d become accustomed to. The bean market is going to struggle if corn can’t get a rally put together in my opinion. Given the fundamentals, it’s tough to expect a rally for beans with world supply likely steady to improved while US exports are likely to be disappointing this year. I’m not giving up on beans getting some life, but at the same time, I still feel like selling incrementally IF we see a rally would be wise for both old and new-crop.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were well under last week at 819 kmt. This was about a third the amount from a week ago and a sign of a Chinese purchase slow-down. Basis was steady:
• My local beans: 22 under March (8 cents improved)
• Decatur: 12 over the March (7 cents improved)
• River: 30 over the March (2 cents improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans also gained some value on the week with the rally on the board and basis holding together. While bean rallies are tough to expect with a huge Brazilian crop forecasted, weather issues in Argentina typically produce some strength in the market. With crop ratings dipping a ton for beans as well, a person should assume some support for beans could continue-especially if they stay dry. While I wouldn’t want to have a ton of bushels sitting around, I think it’s reasonable to consider seeing how this weather plays out on some or most of the beans a grower has left.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.79 ¾, down 2 ¼ on the week. New beans are still close enough to $11 I know some people can make it work. I like locking in a floor as high as possible, so a three-way options position makes some sense here. Selling a call is marginable, but IF we’d have to pay a margin call on a short $12 or higher call option, I personally would be happy about that. Regardless, what matters most is having your break-even dialed in as good as possible and marketing based on that level. I’d use a yield that is believable, conservative and something you’d give to the banker for a cash flow. While I could see beans falling if we see Brazil’s crop as good as expected, there is plenty than can happen in the next few months, so if you’re not able to make this price work, I’d be patient for the time being.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market has stalled for now-continued up-side likely takes some weather issues in SA or a corn rally.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place.
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.