January 5th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

Happy New Year to each of you. Let’s hope 2026 is a better year than 2025 was in the ag world. There’s no doubt it’s been a rough three years for the vast majority of growers with markets that have been less-than-desirable to deal with. While there is still plenty of unrest in the ag community with high fertilizer prices paired with blasé commodity values, those who work in ag have been resilient for many years, and I would expect that to be the case now as well. We’re fortunate to get to raise our families as we do-this is my opinion, but I can only assume those who are reading this feel the same way. While it’s been a challenge for our farm to keep from burning equity, our family is as good as ever. If you see me out speaking this winter, there’s a good chance several of them will be in tow-that’s just the way we prefer to roll. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This week we did a wrap on 2025 for the Beck’s podcast. Here is this past week’s episode - Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (12/30/2025)

I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s Hybrids is our premier seed sponsor. We’re looking forward to their presence at our event. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary

Both corn and beans gave back everything they’d gained the week of Christmas and then some. It wasn’t a good finish to the year or start of the new year by any means. A lack of bullish news along with good weather in South America has buyers on the sidelines. News of the US capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro could have an impact on all markets given this being viewed as an act of war to many. Outside markets were likely a mixed influence.

• The US Dollar was up .483 at 98.158.
• February crude oil was up .57 at 57.32.
• The DOW was down 344 points at 48,616.      

CORN

March ‘26 corn had a crummy week after a couple of weeks with higher closes. March settled at $4.37 ½, down 2 ¾. This was 3 ¼ off the high and ½ off the low. March lost 12 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market broke down a bit this past week. We closed under the 100-day moving average at the lowest close we’ve seen since mid-December. While corn exports and shipments have been phenomenal amidst overall strong demand, the bulls haven’t had enough fodder to chew on to close the year. While many were hoping we’d see new money come into this corn market to start the year, Friday’s trade didn’t look like there was any interest. We need a bullish January USDA report, similar to what we saw in 2025. While most are looking for a drop in corn yields, it stands to reason the USDA would lower demand on a lower production number. Regardless, if we could get stocks established well under 2 bbu, this corn market might find some life at any hint of weather issues, either in the US or South America. I’d be surprised if basis works with us while all of this corn is moving the next few weeks, so a person might have to stay patient on corn.    

DEMAND

Corn export demand reports keep coming in, with this week’s update from December 18^th at 2.202 mmt-a big number and better than expectations. Ethanol grind wasn’t reported for this current week, but for last week we saw 106.5 mb and slightly higher stocks. Basis was steady/improved:

• My local basis: 20 under March (3 cents improved)
• Decatur: 10 over the March (10 cents improved)
• St. Louis River: 17 over March (1 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were lower on the week. With the big drop in futures, basis tried to bridge the gap. However, the net result for most if not all of us was lower cash prices. This is a time of year when basis typically is stagnant at best. Given a ton of January contracts are likely heading to town, there’s not a ton of incentive to push bids. Now, many elevator systems don’t have the bushels bought they assumed they would have by now, so continued movement lower for futures is likely to be met with better basis levels. For those who have HTA contracts, pay attention to this basis. You may get a good shot at locking it in before the USDA report. Either way, I like keeping some ownership of corn, but we need some bullish fodder somewhere in here.  

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.58 ½, down 10. Dec26 was pushing back on that $4.70 level where we were targeting for some risk-management-but getting the market to close in the $4.70s has been a tough ask. I know last year sticks in most of our heads in that we just didn’t get a good chance to hedge any profit margins ahead of harvest as it’s tough to know what our yields would be. While this year is starting out with a similar feel, demand has continued to build. I have to think we get a few shots to hedge risk, but we’ll have to have a plan in place that has flex to it. I still like a strong floor at or above the market which likely requires us to give up some upside. A strategy like that should only be used on a limited basis as we need to make the most out of the market when it finally does rally. However, if we get locked into some $5.30-5.50 corn due to a sharp rally on weather issues, so long as we have the flex to sell more at higher levels, I like that tradeoff. Get ahold of us if you want some help getting a marketing plan put together. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd

Corn Market Theme: The corn market giveth and taketh alike. We need our plans in place to manage risk when this market gives opportunities. 

BEANS

Beans took last week’s nice little rally and gave it back-and then some. On Friday, March beans settled down 1 ¾ at $10.45 ¾. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 7 ¾ off the low. Beans lost 26 ¾ cents on the week. March meal settled 7.7 lower on the week at 296, while soy oil ended the week at 49.3, up .08. The bean market can’t catch a break. While demand domestically is strong and exports have finally picked up, this crop in Brazil is more than enough to dash any enthusiasm for bean bulls. Given excellent weather overall in South America, the hot and dry conditions in southern Argentina simply aren’t enough to get this market’s attention. As with corn, we need a bullish USDA report this month. While a drop in bean yields would sure be nice it’s tough to bank on that given how good these yields were, especially in the wcb. Maybe the best chance for beans to rally, other than a USDA surprise is to see corn lend some support. Regardless, right now this bean market looks rough.  

DEMAND

As with corn, we’re still seeing old export sales reports with the week ending on Dec 18^th at 987kmt. This is the lowest number in five weeks-and quite disappointing. Basis was steady/improved:

• My local beans: 20 under Jan (7 dents improved)
• Decatur: 20 over the Jan (8 cents improved)
• River: 18 over the March (6 cents improved on the move to vs March)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans took a big hit this past week. While originators were narrowing basis, it wasn’t near enough to see cash prices improve due to the drop in prices on the board. Cash beans could be in a pickle here. With South American harvest looming, there will be plenty of beans available on the world market, so our exports will be paltry at best I assume. While crush remains strong as can be here in the US, exports have been quite a disappointment. It appears China is at least 75% completed in their 12 mmt purchase commitments, but given those purchases are old news, that’s how the market is treating any Chinese business. Know what you want to get out of your beans and have some offers out. Even if the board continues to flounder, you might get your price if basis has to do the work. On HTA contracts, basis is working in your favor currently, so consider taking advantage.    

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.62 ¾, down 19 ½ on the week. One of the last things we want to see is Nov26 beans moving lower. While we thought there could be a bit of an acreage battle when beans were above $11, it’s tough to imagine getting excited about planting $10 fall delivery beans. While some of aren’t that low just yet, many are. Given we’re 9 months from harvest, I can’t get excited about locking in a loss right now. It makes it a bit easier due to us having some strong floors in place on new beans, but if you have none sold just yet, it may be best to be patient for the time being. For those wanting to get some risk protection on, I again like a strong floor with room to rally if we are given that opportunity. Let us know if you want to run some scenarios.

Bean Market Theme:  The bean market stunk it up this past week. Technically, it doesn’t look great at this point. Fundamentally, it’s no picnic either when looking at world supply. Our best bet is to have our break-evens nailed down and market accordingly.                           

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.