Good Morning!
Man, it’s hot outside. I believe that’s the case for most who are reading this. I’m feeling fortunate we have the moisture we’ve received. While we have several drowned out spots and some crops that have been negatively impacted, our crop is in good shape overall. The driving I’ve done here lately as well as hearing from many of you lead me to believe the crop isn’t in near as good a shape as it was a year ago. With that being said, a few of you have said it could be your best crop ever, so that’s great to hear as well. This heat will hopefully be short in duration, but if it lasts any length of time, at least it could give these markets a shot in the arm. Keep the correspondence coming-it helps us keep a handle on how this crop is progressing. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The all-important NASS report on acreage and quarterly stocks dropped on Tuesday. This report generally provides a ton of volatility-while we didn’t see that today, we received plenty of news for the market to digest. More on that below. Outside markets likely had a muted impact:
Corn – The corn market reversed from some of the lowest prices in many months to a nice close based on a friendly NASS report. September corn closed up 6 ½ at $4.16 ¾. This was 5 ¾ off the high and 10 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.786 mmt. This shipments number was also over 300k in excess of a week ago. The crop ratings dropped 1% to 67% good/excellent, which compares to 73% a year ago. The report showed corn acreage at 95.343 million-acres, which compares to an average trade guess right at 95 ma. This would be considered a bit negative, but the stocks number more than made up for it. June 1 stocks came in at 5.295 bbu, which was under the lowest estimate and over 100 mb below the average trade guess. While disappearance of corn has been solid, some in the industry are wondering if the USDA overestimated the 2025 crop. Regardless, this should drop corn stocks in the balance sheet, both for old-crop and new. This should be supportive for the corn market, particularly if we see any weather issues moving forward. The new-crop carry-out should move closer to 1.8 bbu, which is factoring in smaller demand for new-crop currently. Given US corn is still cheap and competitive in the world market, I don’t see us hurting corn demand in any measurable way. Considering the sales we already have on, I’ll remain patient on adding to sales until we learn more aobu this 2026 crop. Dec corn settled up 6 at $4.36.
Soybeans – Soybeans rallied on the day despite somewhat negative numbers from the report. August beans settled 5 higher at $11.24 ¼. This was 13 ½ off the high and 17 ½ off the low. August soybean meal was up .1 at 303.9, while soy oil was down 1.93 at 66.93. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 419k mt, which was at expectations and above a week ago by 120k. The bean crop was rated 65% good/excellent, so it dropped 1% as well. The report showed bean acres at 85.365 ma, which was right in line with the average trade guess. With over 4 ma more than a year ago, there was certainly a shift to more bean acres at the expense of corn. The stocks number came in above the trade guess at 1.046 bbu, which is also above a year ago. While the report for beans would be looked at as somewhat bearish, this bean market continues to be resilient. Strong demand for beans along with a crop that is struggling at the start has kept sellers from getting too active. IF this crop comes around and ratings improve, I could see some downside for beans. It’s for this reason I’d be considering locking in some worst-case scenarios on these new-crop bean prices. Nov beans settled at $11.43 ¾, up 4 ¾.
Matt Bennett
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