Good Morning!
We were dry this past week again. While the black ground is doing ok for now, the temps being forecasted to cool off isn’t breaking our hearts by any means. The lighter ground is showing some stress already, but with the wet June, our roots aren’t quite what we’d prefer. Regardless, our crop looks good, all things considered. The kids show cattle at our 4H fair this next week, so it will be a busy one. Since our oldest is 29, we’ve been showing at our county fair for 21 years now. Some of my ‘buddies’ at the fair say they’re going to name a barn after us. While the kids enjoy 4H week, the best part of it for me is generally when we get back home as it makes for a long week. Keep the updates headed my way-I would like to hear how you’re faring in this weather. mbennett@agmarket.net.
For the podcast we covered changing weather forecasts, outside market influences and the charts. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
The corn and bean markets both continued the rally with smaller gains than we saw a week ago. With the wheat market rallying(KC 56 cents), it lent support to corn and beans. Bombs flying in the Black Sea and continued issues in the Strait of Hormuz likely supported commodities overall. Thus, outside markets likely provided a friendly bias:
CORN
September ‘26 corn came out strong again this past week, had some back and forth but settled higher. Sep settled at $4.44 ¾, up 3 ¼. This was ¾ off the high and 8 ¾ off the low. Sep rallied 5 ¼ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market continues in the uptrend we established after the NASS report on June 30th. While Sep tried to get to the 200-day moving average this past week, it failed and we remain in an upward channel. The Commitment-of-Traders showed funds bought 26k contracts, getting them back to a net long of 11k contracts as of Tuesday’s close. Once again, wheat lent a hand in the corn rally with the 30-44 cent gains on Wednesday spilling over to corn where we saw 8-9 cent gains. To give you an idea, funds also bought 25k contracts of wheat-but theyr’e still short 35k. Corn has a bit of story as the trade seems fixated on each weather forecast-and they’ve certainly bounced around. IF we see continued dryness and/or enough heat, it seems likely the trade will be concerned with whether we can raise the 183 yield USDA has currently forecasted. Given 3 ½ ma less planted this year, that yield doesn’t need to go much lower.
DEMAND
Corn demand was soft this past week. Exports came in at 315 kmt for old-drop and 311k for new, both lower than a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a decrease on the week, coming in at 103 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was mostly mixed:
• My local basis: 10 under Sep (a nickel improved)
• Decatur: 16 over Sep (no change)
• St. Louis River: 38 over Sep (a penny wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were again improved on the week. With the rally, basis is still holding steady in my part of the world. I know for some of you we’re seeing basis weak, particularly west of the Mississippi. Especially in the North and South Dakota as well as Minnesota, we’re hearing cash corn bids are still not that attractive. I’ve said this many times-we’re running out of time. With that being said, IF we see this market take off, it may pay to hold onto some corn. However, we’re likely to lose basis, especially where there’s plenty of corn out west. Keep in mind originators know harvest will be here soon.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.67 ½, up 6 ½ on the week-and 26 in the last two weeks. Dec corn continues to see support as the trade seems to understand a big yield is necessary to keep stocks somewhat comfortable. However, we must remember even if we get a trend-line yield of 183, it may be tough to keep stocks-to-use over 10% if this demand doesn’t back off. I like getting our fall delivered corn priced on any rally effort we see in the next few weeks. Given we’re heading into grain-fill soon, we need some moisture before long in many areas or some of these yield models could start extracting production. If you’re like our program and 50% protected, a person could stay patient for now. However, again, we don’t want to make decisions on sell vs store when we go across the scale. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market had another good week. Weather is the name of the game for the next few weeks. Selling strength with flex is a good plan in my opinion.
BEANS
Beans also started the week on a good note and held onto gains into the end of the week. August beans settled at $12.04 ½, up 9 ½. This was ¾ off the high and 17 ¾ off the low. Beans rallied 12 ¾ cents on the week. August meal settled down .2 on the week at 320.2, while soy oil also rallied, settling at 74.81, up 4.35. The COT report showed funds bought just 5,600 contracts, which puts them at a 75k long. The bean market also felt support from the wheat market and maybe more-so from the energy markets. With soy-oil up so strong, the likely culprit was crude’s sharp rally. Given this crush industry has been printing money the last few months, crush is unlikely to slow down. Bean demand is so strong domestically that solid exports should be quite supportive. China has been buying new-crop beans of late, and this is of course aiding in the rally. While it’s tough to be bullish beans, I know I wouldn’t want to be short if we end up with a hotter, drier bias in August.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were up for old crop at 188 kmt for old-crop. New-crop sales were huge at 1.77 mt. Basis was improved:
• My local beans: 10 under August (a nickel improved)
• Decatur: 45 over August (a dime improved)
• River: 42 over (2 cents improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were up again on the week. Not only did we rally, but most basis levels were narrowing as crushers are hunting beans. Whereas we’ve backed off on crush the last few years into harvest, it seems unlikely we see that this year due to how strong margins are. Either way, I’d have a plan in place with some orders in to reward any additional rallies we see. On the flip-side, I’d make sure you have a plan should this market turn south. While it looks good today, nothing should surprise us about how these beans trade moving forward.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $12.03, up 12 ¼ on the week. For those who were wanting $12 for some new-crop beans, we don’t have an excuse not to sell them now. Of course, now many will say they want $12 after basis. 😊 I get it, and I also think we can see those prices IF we see any weather issues. Given we have more acres this year and carry-out is still projected at 310 mb, we need to see a good bean yield. 53 as a trend-line yield is asking for solid weather this August. While the beans were mostly planted early this year, there’s no doubt the yellow beans we’re seeing make a guy wonder how good some of these beans might be. One other note, I’m hearing about some disease and red crown rot this week. I’d get in your fields and make sure you have a handle on what is out there before getting too aggressive on sales.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues its rally and has shown great resilience the last few months. Rewarding rallies makes good economic sense for those who know they can make money at these prices-but stay flexible.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.