Good Morning!
I hope all is well around your place. While it's hot here, we have had plenty of rain over the last few days. We moved our calves into the 4-H fair on Sunday afternoon and had 2-3 inches that evening. While we were happy for the rain, it wasn't much fun sitting in the metal cattle barn as lightning struck all around. The kids and the cattle were nervous as can be. All of our farms are pretty much saturated right now, so a few days without rain isn't going to hurt anything. I know a few of you are rolling your eyes, but I'm just relaying what's going on in our part of the world. Our cattle show today, and the heat index is supposed to be 115 degrees, so I'm a bit worried, to be honest. It's a bit hot for most of these calves, especially those that have been under fans or especially a cooler all summer. As always, keep the feedback coming. I appreciate hearing from all of you. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market is erasing last week's gains, while beans are trying to claw back. While there's little news on the trade front to be excited about, this heat coming in this week has some in the trade watching closely. Hopefully, this round of heat is short-lived. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market is on the defensive this week after big weekend rains in the Midwest. September corn closed 4 ½ lower at $3.99 ¼. This was 6 ¾ off the high and ¾ off the low. With a 4 ¾-cent lower close on Monday, the corn market is again selling off due to what the trade views as near-ideal weather conditions. Weekly export inspections were down from the previous week to 983 kt. This is 300k tons less than a week ago, but remains almost 30% of the pace from last year, while the USDA is calling for 21% more than a year ago. The good-excellent rating came in at 74%, which was the same as a week ago. These ratings are the best we've seen since 2016, with estimates of crop size continuing to grow. For those who watched the fundamental video on Monday, we had an agronomist on who walks as many fields as anyone in the country. He relayed that tassel wrap isn't nearly as big a concern to him as disease pressure. With Tar Spot and Southern Rust becoming an issue, he cautioned growers against not spraying due to the cost. He estimates a bad case of either could drop yields 50 Bu./A. or more. It's something to talk with your agronomist about as you scout your fields. The market is likely to struggle if Mother Nature continues to drop so much rain in the Corn Belt. In all honesty, between now and harvest, the best shot at a corn rally is if we dry out in August, which would precipitate a bean rally. If that doesn't happen or some really good trade/tariff news, a person may have to be super patient with this market. I still think storage pays this year, but those bushels that have to go to town need to be priced before basis gets too wide, in my opinion. December corn was down 4 ¼ on Tuesday, settling at $4.18.
September ’25 Corn Chart
SOYBEANS
Soybeans have also struggled to start the week. After losing 10 ½ cents on Monday, September beans were down another 2 ½ on Tuesday at $10.08. This was 5 ¾ off the high and 4 off the low. Soybean meal was up 3.1 at 277.9, while soy oil was down .43 at 55.45. Soybean export inspections were well in excess of a week ago at 365k tons. This total was over 200k more than the levels a week ago and above expectations. The good/excellent rating came in at 68%, which was a 2% drop from a week ago. While the bean market has been down for two days, the drop in ratings may have contributed to November beans trying to hold together. On Tuesday, November beans closed just ½ lower at $10.25 ½. With the heat forecasted to be intense for a few days, the market has an eye on this bean situation, especially after last year when a dry August hurt corn and bean yields. While I don't want to see anyone's yields hurt, a weather scare would be welcome by most of us, I would think. Stay patient for now, but have offers in place in the event we get a pop somewhere in here.
September ‘25 Soybean chart
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321