July 26th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week was a good one. It was sure hot around here. A few of you have asked how our 4H fair went. We had no major dysfunction, which is saying something. 😊 Our son Toby was reserve grand champion steer, and his steer sold dang-good. I was wondering how many bidders would be out and how aggressive they'd be. While some of the kids were a bit shy on where their animals sold, it was a good sale overall. We had about three inches of rain this week in that area-and thankfully, we have a farm right next to our fairgrounds, so we were blessed with solid moisture. The fair was a bit of a swamp for a day or so, but it sure soaked in by the time we were able to move out. I've been in a few fields over the last couple of days, checking pollination and ear counts. I haven't had any issues with pollination that I've found just yet, but maybe I'm just missing it. We sprayed all of our corn with fungicide, so I'm feeling pretty solid about our production for this year. We don't lack moisture, and our ear counts are similar to what we dropped this spring. Hopefully, we see benign weather to finish this out. Feel free to keep me posted about what you're seeing.

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The corn and bean markets both lost ground this past week, and it seemed like both were on the defensive all week. This comes as a surprise, given the sales announcements for both, despite the weather providing no bullish input. The all-important August weather is our last shot at a rally this summer, so we'll see what Mother Nature throws at us. Outside markets were active with mixed signals. These prices are weekly moves just before Friday's close.     

• The US Dollar was down .800 at 98.215
• September crude oil was .85 lower at 66.05
• The DOW was 550 points higher at 45,102

CORN

September corn was down four out of five days this week as sellers took back the reins. On Friday, September settled at $3.99 ½, down 2 ¼. This was 3 ½ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. September lost $0.09 cents for the week. Again, we came out of the gate with the sell button pushed, with both Monday and Tuesday showing $0.04+ cent losses. While Thursday we tried to rally, Friday cemented the funds and their mentality of not wanting to own this corn. Demand is strong, but with thoughts this is a monster crop, it’s hard to get any buying enthusiasm in this market. I’m skeptical we’ll come in much above the USDA’s 181 without an ideal August, but we’ve certainly had enough July rain to make it a possibility. The agronomist we had on our AgMarket fundamental webinar on Monday relayed his estimate at 182 and this guy walks a ton of fields. The crop will be big; it’s just a matter of how big. The tone of this corn market likely remains one with resistance above unless we see major weather issues affect the bean crop in August. A bean rally would sure be welcome for this corn market.

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed this week. Net export sales came in at 643 KMT, which was up almost half a million tons from the debacle a week ago. New-crop sales were 734k, so overall sales were up over half a million mt. Ethanol grind was right at 104 MB, down a million bushels. Stocks were again down on the week. Basis was mixed/wider:

• My local basis: 9 under September (two cents wider)
• Decatur: 18 over September (no change)
• St. Louis River: 30 over September (8 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices moved lower on the week. While the market moved lower, basis didn’t appreciate. That’s not what we want to see by any means. While ADM Decatur was posting 18 over the September, they are also pushing for cash bushels in the next two to three weeks. The number I was quoted was 35 over. While $4.35 doesn’t sound like a home run by any means, it’s a much better number than we’ve been looking at for some time. I’m not sure what your basis is, but a client from Indiana was at 80 over heading into the weekend, so that eastern basis is still trying to pull bushels to the chickens and hogs on the East Coast. While it’s nice to see some end-users pushing, we’re about out of time. With the Delta set to start harvesting in the next few weeks, this cash corn market is about over unless we see major weather issues in August. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities by any means, but I wouldn’t make that my marketing plan.

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.19, down 8 ¾. This past week, we saw little in the way of buying interest. As growers across the Corn Belt get rain, I have to assume some selling is taking place. As I’ve said a few times, my biggest concern is for those growers who have bushels that have to go to town this fall. I would definitely want to make sure I’m not getting smoked by a wide basis. While we could store some corn commercially, it’s expensive, and we have to pay storage fees whether we rally post-harvest or not. So, my preferred strategy for those who don’t have enough corn sold would be to sell those bushels that have to go to town somewhere in here soon, before the basis widens further, but keep some long calls or call-spreads in the event we shift the narrative for corn. We still expect see a rally somewhere in here, but it may take time to develop. With the corn/fertilizer ratio as poor as it is, it seems likely that corn acres move lower for 2026. If this is the case, the big demand we’ve built should make the big money players rethink their massive short position. Using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management. Let us know if we can be of assistance.

Corn Market Theme: The corn market was on the defensive again. Stay flexible on sales made and plan to store every bushel you can at home. Keep in mind, basis is likely to get super-wide this fall if your area is looking at a bumper crop. 

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Beans also moved lower this week. On Friday, September beans settled 3 ¾ lower at $10.02. This was 7 ½ off the high and 3 ¾ off the low. Beans lost $0.19 cents on the week. Sep meal settled 6.2 lower on the week at 272.2, while soy oil ended the week at 56.25, up 2.51. The bean market saw the lower crop ratings on Monday afternoon, moving from 70% good/excellent down to 68% and didn’t bat an eye. This bean crop, especially in some areas like Iowa, has been reportedly going backwards. With massive rain totals over the past month, yellow beans and disease have been widely discussed. Fundamentals still look good as far as the US is concerned, but with ample world supplies, buyers aren’t too enthused to own beans just yet. August weather is our last hope, but I know most of you would just as soon if a drought occurs, it be everywhere but your farm. Let’s see what the next few weeks offer before getting too aggressive.      

DEMAND

Soybean exports were down from last week at 161k tons, down 110k from last week. With 239k posted for the next marketing year, bean exports overall were down over 120k. Basis was widening on the river.

• My local beans: 25 under November (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over November (a nickel wider)
• River: 23 over August (11 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were down on the week. While old beans are in tight supply, we’re getting close enough to harvest that cash bids don’t reflect the markets moving lower. Typically, we see basis improve in down markets, but for now, we can’t seem to catch a break. I know very few beans are out on the farm still, so those gambling bushels aren’t big volumes. I’d wait to see what the weather does in the next few weeks and keep on gambling if you’ve held them this long.  

2025 BEANS

November 2025 beans settled at $10.21, down 14 ¾ on the week. November beans gave back about half of what they gained the previous week. While we don’t know what this crop will be just yet, the market doesn’t seem bothered in the least. With massive rainfall totals in some areas over the last few weeks, some of these beans have taken a hit. Others have benefited, and I’ve always felt like I’d rather have had too much rain than not enough. So, it’s tough to kill this bean market on too much water. If we keep the heat around for a couple of weeks with limited rainfall, we should see a chance at better prices. For those behind on making sales, have offers ready to incrementally sell a few. While we are sold or protected on 45% of the 2025 crop, I know many of you have relayed that you need to get caught up. If that’s the case, give one of us a call, and we can help you walk through some options to keep some flexibility while locking in worst-case scenarios. Contrary to corn, I could see bean acres in ’26 getting pretty big, so I’m not totally sure I like storing many beans without counting on a failure in South America. That’s a tough one to count on. Regardless, weather can provide a big rally if the market gets spooked, so keep on your toes and let us know how we can help.

September ‘25 Soybean chart

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

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Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.

Matt Bennett

mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321