Good Morning!
We've had a better run of weather over the last few days on some of our farms. We received between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain on all of our farms. For the ones with a lighter amount, we received an inch or less for the whole month of June, so overall, we're quite dry yet. I'm not going to complain, though-we'll take whatever we can get. On the health front, I'm all healed up and ready to roll. After a few procedures and some situations I probably shouldn't write about, I have no more stents or medicine to take. It's been interesting hearing from a few of you about your kidney stone stories. Man, I hope I never get another one again. Keep the correspondence coming, either about your farm or any questions you have about the markets. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The USDA report on Monday didn't give us much of a boost, and with solid corn crop ratings, we saw a down market again on Tuesday. While the weather isn't ideal everywhere, it's been good enough in plenty of areas that the funds just aren't interested in owning corn at this point. The forecasts look concerning over the next week to ten days with plenty of heat and restricted moisture, so we'll see if a full-scale pattern reversal is in the cards or if it's something temporary. Outside markets should have provided a friendly bias.
The corn market was blasé for a June Planted acreage report on Monday, while keeping a muted tone on Tuesday. On Monday, July closed up 3, then down ½ on Tuesday, settling at $4.20. This was 3 off the high and 5 ½ off the low. With July now in delivery, some of the big short position continues to get bought back, giving more support to July than deferred contracts. On Tuesday, September corn settled at $4.06, down 3 ½. Weekly export inspections were again off from the previous week but still quite large at 1.37mmt. This is 100k tons behind a week ago, but still about 30% ahead of last year's export pace, while the USDA is forecasting a 15.6% increase in exports. The good-excellent rating came in at 73%, which was three points improved over a week ago. While I know a ton of this crop looks excellent, it's a surprise that with the heat many had last week, this crop was able to improve. The USDA report showed 95.2 million acres planted this spring, which is a shade below the 95.3 from planting intentions in March. Quarterly stocks came in at 4.644 bbu, which was right on with trade guesses. We have around 350m fewer bushels of corn on hand this year than we saw just a year ago. In all honesty, the report was considered neutral to friendly, given that many were expecting a bearish set of numbers. We must remember that if we plug in acres this big, we don't need a huge yield to end up with a fair amount of corn. However, assuming 181 right now is a big gamble with how much weather we need to see work in our favor to get there. I don't want to sell corn here, not after the drop we've seen. I'm sitting on my hands for the time being with thoughts of storing a ton of corn this fall if we don't get a weather scare here in the month of July. December corn was down 3 ½ on Tuesday, settling at $4.22.
July 2025 Corn Chart
SOYBEANS
Soybeans lost a little ground on Monday and were quiet as can be on Tuesday. On Monday, July beans were 3 ½ lower, then settled up ½ on Tuesday, settling at $10.24 ¾. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 12 ½ off the low. August beans were unchanged at $10.29 ¾. Soybean meal was down 2.1 at 269.2, while soy oil was up 1.25 at 53.76. Soybean export inspections were above a week ago at 275k tons. This total was 80k more than a week ago's levels and within expectations. The good/excellent rating came in at the same level as last week at 66%. Bean conditions aren't nearly as impressive as corn, which makes sense, given so many have commented on how their beans are struggling to start the growing season. With the USDA coming in lower on acreage at 83.3 million acres, there could be some pressure to see a solid yield this fall, given fewer acres planted. The quarterly stocks number came in a bit above expectations for beans at 1 bbu, but our stocks and stocks/use will remain quite snug here in the US, especially as demand has remained so strong. I look for beans to get some life over the next few weeks, especially if this weather is less-than-ideal. On Tuesday, November beans closed ¼ higher at $10.27 ¼.
July 2025 Soybean Chart
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321