July 7th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you enjoyed the three-day week as we celebrated the 4th of July. We haven’t received any rain since last weekend, and our forecast doesn’t look promising for the next week or so either. With temperatures in the high-80s to 90s for the entirety of the two-week forecast, I’m really hoping we get some rain, especially on the farms that keep missing them. I know many of you have received plentiful rains over the last few weeks, and I’m happy for you. Some have gotten rain that they don’t want, so there’s a bit of everything out there right now. With tassels showing up on April corn and May corn not far behind, we’ll have the all-important time of pollination within the next few weeks. This should make for some nervous growers and an equally nervous market. Keep your correspondence coming and let me know how things look for you.

I appreciate all of the feedback and questions on the app. I know many of you are getting our research now and plugging numbers in for breakeven levels and profitability. Let me know how we can help you. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets both rallied on the week. With a holiday-shortened week, it looked like more of the same up until Thursday, when some buying surfaced. With a trade deal announced between the US and Vietnam and rumors that President Trump has more in store when he visited Iowa on Thursday night, the shorts in the market seemed a bit spooked. No big extremes for weather were in the forecast, so there wasn’t much direction given there. Outside markets were active with mixed signals.    

• The US Dollar settled down .628 at 96.822
• August crude oil settled 2.14 higher at 66.50
• The DOW settled 1,423 points lower at 44,847

CORN

July corn found a bottom and rallied on the week as it is now in delivery. On Thursday, July settled at $4.31 ½, up 2 ¼. September corn, which processors are now bidding off of, was up 2 ¼ cents at $4.20 ¼. This was 6 off the high and 3 off the low. September rallied 8 ¾ for the week. Given that we started the week with a huge report followed by a significant improvement in crop ratings, seeing gains on a weekly basis was a welcome sight. With many end-users narrowing basis levels, there is a nervous feel to this market we haven’t had in a fair bit. While I’m not trying to get bullish on you, this market could see a pop, especially considering we have a three-day weekend. If we see a trade deal announced by Trump and/or see a more ominous forecast on Sunday night, there’s no question that funds will scramble to cover shorts. It’s certainly that time of year when volatility can really spike, so hopefully we’ll see an opportunity after several weeks of junk markets. Whether old corn or new, I think getting offers in place is something that needs to be strongly considered.         

DEMAND

Corn demand was steady on the week. Net export sales came in at 532 KMT, which was down 200k from a week ago. New-crop sales were 940k, so overall sales were over 400k more than last week. Ethanol grind was at 104 MB, down a million bushels. Stocks were down on the week. Basis was improving:

• My local basis: 4 under Sep (3 cents improved)
• Decatur: 15 over Sep (4 cents improved)
• Louis River: 40 over Sep (6 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices actually improved on the week. While the board rallied, we also got some basis improvement to go with it. Given we're in July, it's not typical to see a rally accompanied by an improvement in basis. For the cash holder of corn, particularly in the east, the basis is trying to do the work. While some in the east are railing corn in from the west, they still have to pay to do so. While a "rising tide lifts all boats," there's no doubt the best basis levels will be the farther east you go, while the widest levels will be on the opposite side of the corn-belt. I know most of you are down to gambling bushels, and I sure hope you hit it big in the next few weeks. If we get out past pollination with no big issue for 2025 production, I wouldn't want to have a ton of old bushels sitting around. On the other hand, if we see weather come in, I can only assume the funds will run for cover, which could create a nice rally. Keep offers current.              

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.37, up 10. This past week finally saw some buying come in as the trade got excited towards the end. On Thursday, we saw a test of the 50-day moving average at $4.41, but IF we get some good news out of Iowa, we could sure see a move back over that average. The only two moving averages we’d need to clear if we get through the 50-day would be the 100- and 200-day, which would both be accomplished with a move over $4.50. I’d sure like to see a move over that level before getting aggressive, and to be honest, if you’re not sure about just how big your crop is, I’d want to have some calls in place before selling too much. Stay flexible and have offers in place to best manage your risk. Using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk management.    

Corn Market Theme: The corn market showed some life, but we need to see follow-through buying when we come out of this long weekend. Keeping flexibility with offers in place above the market is a great way to manage risk. 

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

 Beans came back strong this past week after a poor run a week ago. July closed at $10.56 ¼, up 5 ¾ on Friday. August beans, which are what most are bidding off of, settled 2 higher at $10.55 ½. This was 9 ¼ off the high and 5 ¾ off the low. Beans rallied 22 ¼ on the week. September meal settled 10.6 higher on the week at 281.7, while soy oil ended the week at 54.42, up 2.02. The bean market is similar to corn in that a ton can happen here in short order. While this isn’t the most important time for beans from an agronomic and rainfall standpoint, a rally for corn would certainly provide support for beans. If beans were to rally on their own, I’d think a big trade announcement with China would be needed, and at the present time, we have no solid news to report. As with corn, let’s stay flexible but keep our eyes peeled for opportunities.                 

DEMAND

• Soybean exports were up from last week at 462k tons, up 60k from last week. With 239k posted for the next marketing year, bean exports overall were up 140k. Basis was steady/improved.

  • My local beans: 30 under August (no change)
  • Decatur: 20 over Nov (no change)
  • Louis River: 30 over August (12 cents improved)

CASH SOYBEANS

Cash beans were up on the week, mostly due to a strong board. While the basis on the river was hopping, interior bids weren’t nearly as impressive. The river market continues to buy a few beans with the US remaining competitive, while crush plants are slow to improve bids. I have to think they do, given strong crush margins due to soy oil and soy meal rallying. While meal hasn’t been super impressive, soy oil has been strong of late. With Congress passing the big, beautiful bill, there is good renewable fuels language that can benefit both corn and soybeans from a domestic consumption standpoint. While that doesn’t mean we’re going to rally through the roof, it’s been sorely needed as the US continues to lose world export share. Very few beans are in the producers' hands, so if you have gambling bushels, remember time is short. Look for a bounce to keep selling those last bushels.    

2025 SOYBEANS

November 2025 beans settled at $10.49 ¼, a rally of 24 ½ on the week. November beans, as with most other corn and bean contracts, did the bulk of their heavy lifting on Wednesday. November was up 20 ¾, which was the best upward move we’ve seen in three weeks. As we come out of the weekend, the key drivers for a possible rally would again be centered on potential trade deals. If we can get China to commit to similar volumes they’ve bought off the US in the last few years, which has been floated, it would do wonders for a market unsure about export demand. Given that it appears the government is trying to shore up domestic usage, positive news for exports would be a boon for this bean market. I like selling beans near the recent high of $10.74, but if you can make a lower price work, by all means, go for it. The name of the game is locking in profit.       

August ‘25 Soybean chart

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your breakeven points and put your plan in place.

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out of the equation and make better decisions.

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321