Good Morning!
We had a nice rain over the weekend, and it was sorely needed. I had a few farms that received good rainfall over the last couple of weeks, but those that had been short on moisture received a nice soaking. We had from 0.6 to 2+ inches on all farms, with most receiving around an inch. While some farms will need more rain, I'm sleeping a little better than I had been. While temperatures have been quite warm, we're not in the mid-90s like we had been. The moisture cooled things off a bit, so we should be in decent shape heading into pollination. Most of our corn is tasseled or in the process, so it's crunch time. I was in Iowa speaking at a financial meeting on Tuesday night, then had to drive to Indy for a meeting Wednesday morning, then over to the Ozarks for an AgM/JSA meeting on Thursday - it's been a busy week. I appreciate all the feedback-keep it coming. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets closed last week in good fashion, but have given it back to start this week. With President Trump making no major announcement in Iowa last Thursday night, as the trade was expecting, the rain over the weekend dealt a double whammy to our markets. Both corn and beans are struggling as the trade seemingly assumes the crop is in the bin. Forecasts remain non-threatening for now, so until that changes, the beatings appear to continue. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market has yet to see the light of day this week, with a significant drop on Monday and no turnaround on Tuesday. September corn closed 5 ½ lower at $3.98. This was 5 ¾ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. With the close, it's the first time we've been sub $4 since last year. Weekly export inspections were up from the previous week at 1.49mmt. This is 120k tons higher than a week ago as we continue to outpace the USDA goal. The good-excellent rating came in at 74%, up 1% from a week ago and the highest we've seen this year. With some private estimates of the crop size already coming in, we are seeing big yields for this crop. I've seen as high as 187, but it seems way early for numbers like that.
However, I haven't seen much bad corn this year. I know there are areas where it's been a tough go this year, but the I-states are in solid shape overall, especially Iowa. One thing to watch out for is if the areas that are dry can finally catch some rain. I'm talking the I-55 corridor in Illinois and northern Indiana, which can't seem to catch a rain as of late. We need Mother Nature to put a scare into the market, as the market could continue to drift lower if we remain in good shape. I struggle to sell down here with break-evens well above the market, but man, this is tough to watch. My biggest worry is those who don't have storage, as I have to think that storing corn will pay dividends this year. With December to July carry at $0.35-$0.36, it should pay a grower to hold onto the corn while waiting for the basis to strengthen. For now, I'm going to wait this out, knowing full and well that storage may be the best way to go when it's all said and done. December corn was down 6 ½ on Tuesday, settling at $4.14 ¼.
September ’25 Corn Chart
SOYBEANS
Soybeans also have stunk it up so far this week with big losses on Monday, followed by more of the same on Tuesday. September beans were 5 lower, settling at $10.08 ½. This was 7 ¾ off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. Soybean meal was down 1.6 at 274.5, while soy oil was up .14 at 53.94. Soybean export inspections were above a week ago at 389k tons. This total was 110k more than a week ago's levels and above expectations. The good/excellent rating remained at the same level as last week, at 66%. Bean conditions continue to lag behind corn, and after speaking with many of you, they don't appear as good. This bean crop is a long way from in the bin, so I'm a bit surprised we're seeing so much selling. Heck, we're competitive on the world market, which is great news, so it's tough for me to sell beans here, especially with the August weather yet to come. While the world supply is ample, US demand for beans is strong, so I think that any weather issue at all could spark a nice rally. While I am hopeful we'll see that, I'd be sure to have offers in place, as any rally could be short-lived. As always, I wouldn't try to outguess this market, but operate more on what works for your particular farm. Please let me know if we can be of assistance, as we know these markets are far from simple this year. On Tuesday, November beans closed 3 ¼ lower at $10.17 ½.
September ’25 Soybean Chart
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321