Good Morning!
I hope all is well around your place. We had some good rainfall over the last week, totaling 1 - 1.5 in. It saved us from having to replant some beans. The earliest beans and corn we planted look excellent, while some of the later planted are just getting a good start. I like how we look considering the spring we had, but again, I understand we had it better than many to the south and east of us. I was hoping to get the rest of our hay baled this week, but after 0.5 in. of rain on Sunday, it took a bit to dry out. I assume we'll start putting it down today and hope for the best when it comes to rain this weekend. The two youngest are still playing ball, so we have games all week and this weekend. I hate to miss a game if I can avoid it, so there's not a whole lot of downtime for now. Please keep me posted on how your crops are looking if you get a chance. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market showed some life on Tuesday after getting hammered on Monday, while beans haven't moved much overall these first two days. With crops rated in good shape and weather a non-issue for most, the trade seems less than thrilled about putting in any weather premium. No news for renewable fuels, and trade deals are still up in the air, which isn't helping matters. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market got smoked on Monday but clawed back some gains on Tuesday. July closed up 5 ¼ at $4.38 ¾. This was ¾ off the high and 9 ½ off the low. Weekly export inspections were up from a big number last week at 1.656mmt. We continue well ahead of the USDA's pace, so this week's USDA report should show increased exports, which should lower the stocks and stocks/usage. Planting progress came in at 97%, which was in line with expectations and the same as the 5-year average. The good-excellent rating came in at 71%, which was two points better than a week ago and a shade better than the 70% average trade guess. While the corn crop looks solid so far, we're running a bit behind what many would call the type of conditions that would equate to a national yield of 181 Bu. In my opinion, we have to click on all cylinders to see an all-time record yield, especially with such a big acreage level as we have this year. Still, this crop has gotten off to a good start overall. This is keeping a lid on prices, as evidenced by the 9-10 cent drop in corn prices on Monday. If we see the 95 million acres come to pass and no big weather scare, it's going to be tough to get a rally. However, given prices are as low as they are, I can't, in good faith, recommend someone aggressively selling corn here unless their cost of production allows them to call it a profit. Dec was up 2 on Tuesday, settling at $4.40.
July 2025 Corn Chart
SOYBEANS
Soybeans closed a penny and a quarter lower on Monday, then were back higher on Tuesday. July beans were up 1 ¾ at $10.57 ¾. This was 6 off the high and 2 off the low. Soybean meal was up .4 at 295.9, while soy oil was up .41 at 47.79. Soybean export inspections were solid at 547k tons. This total was a 7-week high as bean demand, and shipments have held in much better than the trade has been assuming. Seeing these shipments lower the totals we could see for cancellations moving forward, which takes some pressure off this cash bean market. For planting progress, we saw 90% of the beans planted and 75% emerged, which are both ahead of the 5-year average. The good/excellent rating came in 1% better than a week ago at 68%. It's been interesting to see how well this bean market has hung in here lately. Given strong demand, it's likely we will see a tight balance sheet for both old and new crop on the report this week. Hopefully, this will keep the bean market resilient as we wait and see what Mother Nature deals us this summer. On Tuesday, November beans closed ½ higher at $10.31 ¼. While I'm still attempting to be patient on beans for now, I'm not opposed to keeping some floors in place. It doesn't mean you're bearish by owning some puts-it simply means you want to be protected while seeing if we can get that rally you've been waiting on.
July 2025 Soybean Chart
Until next time!
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321