Good Morning!
I’m actually out of the office for a few days with family but wanted to get my weekend wire thrown together. I get up earlier than anyone else in the family, so I can’t get in trouble for working when no one else is awake. We have a family reunion on my wife’s side every other summer, and fortunately, we’re done with replant-but my son Beau is on hay and chore duty while we’re gone as he can’t miss his regular job. We had plenty of rain this past week-while we’d trended on the dry side, Monday we had a big rain followed by two more rains on Wednesday and Thursday nights. In total, we had anywhere from 3-5+ inches for the week. The replant corn was mostly done in vain as we likely can’t get to the ponds without killing a bunch of corn at this point-it’s going to be what it’s going to be. I appreciate the feedback. It sounds like many of you are off to a great start while there’s plenty of folks dealing with way too much rain-in most cases, it’s preferable to not enough rain, right? Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This past week on the podcast, we talked about the meltdown in prices and the what to expect or plan for moving forward. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
Corn and beans continued to sell-off this past week as funds continued to sell off their long ag positions. Good overall weather combined with the war drum appearing to be fading a bit kept buyers on the sidelines. Outside markets saw weekly changes as follows as of the time of this writing prior to Friday’s close.
CORN
July ‘26 corn couldn’t get its footing this last week but didn’t lose near the ground as the previous week. July settled at $4.12 ¾, up 1. This was 4 ¼ off the high and 4 ¼ off the low. July lost 4 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market looks as bad as it could as we’re below all trend-lines and have broken every level of support other than the contract low, which is just below $4. The funds had their biggest week of selling yet, wiping out their long entirely. They sold 121k contracts, taking their position to a net short of 1k contracts. With crop conditions remaining at 67% good/excellent and some improvement in the war situation, premium continues to come out of this market. While we’re oversold at this point, it appears the funds have no interest in owning corn even as we head into the heart of the growing season. For old-crop, it will be tough to see basis do enough work to get us close to where we were before, while new-crop has the best shot at a rally.
DEMAND
Corn demand was solid this past week. Exports came in at 1.0 mmt, over 100k higher than a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a small decrease on the week, coming in at 105 mb. Stocks were a shade higher. Basis was mostly improved:
• My local basis: 15 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 15 over July (no change)
• St. Louis River: 23 over July (a penny wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were down again on the week. While we’ve heard about some basis pushes here and there, basis isn’t doing much work to counter this huge sell-off. The huge amount of old-crop corn is a headwind that even strong demand isn’t countering. One thing is for sure, moving forward this big demand isn’t going to back off one bit. The problem is 2 bbu of carry-out is likely what we’ll have on hand heading into this coming harvest. As long as the trade thinks we have a decent crop on the way, it’s going to be tough to see this corn market rally without something unforeseen. If we could get Chinese to come in and buy corn, it would certainly help, but again we’re running out of time. I’d be wrapping up old-crop by pollination as we typically don’t see a payoff to holding corn far into the summer, especially with a big carry-out.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.40 ¼, down 5 ¾ on the week. Dec corn broke the $4.40 level during the week, closing below it on Thursday. This was a life-of-contract low we saw violated, which could open the door to more down-side. While I’m more supportive new-corn than old, it definitely appears the trade has no worry about the corn supply situation. We’re a long way from having a crop in the bin, but in the short-run, it’s going to take either a weather problem or an acreage drop to see this market move much higher. Given how much rain has fallen in the corn-belt, it’s tough to see a rally as we get closer to pollination. Where we are on sales at 50%, I am in no hurry to sell more as we’re still early in the marketing year. Given the strong demand and question-marks on cost-of-production moving forward, a person may do well to store some corn again this year, just like we saw for the 2025 crop. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market is oversold. While I see down-side as a bit more limited, we need some new demand news or an acreage drop to feel good about a low being in place.
BEANS
Beans also lost ground on the week but it was again not as painful as the previous one. July beans settled at $11.13 ½, down 1 ½. This was 6 ¼ off the high and 4 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 7 ¾ cents on the week. July meal settled down 7.2 on the week at 301.3, while soy oil ended the week at 74.28, up .16. The bean market, from a technical standpoint, is also under all levels of moving average but trying to hold long-term support. If we break back below $11, it could open the door to more selling yet. The funds were selling beans as well but still have a decent long. Funds sold 58k contracts of beans as of Tuesday’s close, taking their net long down to 98k. Total fund length for the bean complex is now 282k as funds sold over 150k total of meal, oil and beans. The bean market is still struggling with ample world supplies while demand and crush margins are supportive. While I’d like to think we can get this bean market going, I’m a bit concerned we might see more acres on June 30th while it would also make sense Brazil could push their bean acres on the first-crop they plant in Sep-Nov. Given fertilizer prices, bean acreage in both hemispheres might continue to increase.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were off a shade on the week at 211 kmt. Basis was steady:
• My local beans: 15 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over July (a nickel wider)
• River: 20 over July (6 cents wider)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans didn’t gain any ground on the week. If a person is closer to a crush plant, I could see them getting a push on beans, but at the same time, we’ve already turned down $12 and above prices, so it might be time to think about getting these old beans wrapped up. I know most are down to gambling bushels, so it’s up to the grower on how long they want to sit at the table.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.32, down 5 ½ on the week. New beans lost a little ground as well but are trying to hang in there. For those who haven’t sold many, I’d take a strong look at what you think production might look like and get your break-even dialed in. If you think you can make money, I see no issue selling beans in here, but if you can’t call it a profit, again it’s early in the marketing year. If I wanted to get some beans sold, I’d consider a strategy with some flex just in case this big bean demand we continue to see keeps our markets supported. There is no guarantee summer weather will cooperate and no guarantee Brazil will have excellent weather again this coming year. Keep some flex, but if you get a chance to lock in net profit, I’d be hesitant to not take advantage.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market is trying to stabilize. With strong demand and big supply, it’s a tug-of-war that will hopefully keep prices supported. Keep some flex but lock in margins where you see it.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.