Good Morning!
I hope you’ve had a great week. Our week included getting our sweetcorn planted on Tuesday while hoping to replant and spot in on Wednesday. However, on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we had around an inch of rain. While the forecast was showing a chance, it didn’t look like it would amount to much, but we’ll be waiting until maybe Monday or Tuesday to get things spotted in. We’ll also need to wait to get the hay put down-which stinks as it appeared we had a good shot to run before that shower. The ground was just getting fit when we got the rain, so it kept true to how things have gone this spring. With all things considered, our crops look good. I’d like to see a chance to get some roots established soon, but we’ll just have to wait and see if Mother Nature wants to cooperate. I know some of you are much farther behind and some are begging for rain, so I sure hope your luck changes. Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This past week on the podcast, we talked about the news of a potential ceasefire playing havoc on our markets as well as some thoughts on selling cash and new-crop. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
Corn and beans both lost ground on the week. The corn market in particular performed poorly, breaking through support that had held since the first of the year. While demand remains strong, a leaking crude market combined with good enough weather had sellers active. Outside markets saw weekly changes as follows as of the time of this writing prior to Friday’s close.
CORN
July ‘26 corn started the week on a down note, posted gains on Thursday, then gave it up and then some to close the week. July settled at $4.46 ¾, down 9. This was 12 ¼ off the high and 1 ¾ off the low. July lost 15 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market went where we didn’t want it to go. With a close below $4.50, we’ve broken the support held since the first of the year. It appears funds were in a risk-off mode, and considering how much old-crop corn we have on hand, there’s a chance they liquidate more of their long position yet. When we look at Dec corn, the chart looks a little better as we settled on the 100-day moving average. If we can start the new month with some buying, hopefully we see old-crop work back higher. However, we must realize the prices we’ve seen the last few months have been superior to the last few years. I’m not bearish but cautious as we move forward.
DEMAND
Corn demand was off this past week. Exports came in at 1.015 mmt, half of the amount from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a small decrease on the week, coming in at 105 mb. Stocks were up a bit. Basis was mostly improved:
• My local basis: 20 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 12 over July (no change)
• St. Louis River: 18 over July (two cents wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were down on the week after a loss on the board. With basis not improving on the drop in futures, it appears originators have enough corn bought for now. It’s tough to escape just how much corn we likely carry into new-crop still, even as big demand continues to gobble up bushels. IF China buys corn from the US, there’s no doubt we could see some excitement-it’s been talked about quite a bit of late. However, without something unforeseen such as that type of news, cash could struggle to rally as we get into the summer timeframe. I’d continue to whittle down the cash position if it were me, as holding into later in the summer hasn’t historically worked very good. Owning some corn on paper through limited-risk options would be my preference if a person wants to stay long. Or, a person could have a plan to get wrapped up on old-crop and simply get more focused on their new-crop strategy. Let us know if we can help you out with your approach.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.75, down 11 ½ on the week. The action in Dec corn was similar to old-corn. As stated previously, the chart looks better but this is the lowest we’ve settled in six weeks. There are still plenty of question marks on new-crop as acreage is far from certain. Given a challenging environment from a cost perspective, the chance we’ll see lower acreage is still very much present. Demand for old-crop is still likely understated, so if we can keep strong demand intact, the balance sheet for this coming year could be snug. If you’ve followed us and have a decent percentage of sales intact, you might see this market as I do-one to where I wait and see before adding to sales. If you haven’t sold any yet, don’t forget Dec stayed under $4.70 from planting to harvest last year. Having sales on in this area with some flex should be a consideration if you can make these prices work. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market headed south this week and we’re in a perilous position technically on old-crop. Planning to move old-corn while keeping flexible hedges in place for new should be a consideration.
BEANS
Beans fared better, relatively speaking than corn but also lost ground on the week. July beans settled at $11.86 ¾, down 7 ¾. This was 14 off the high and 4 off the low. Beans lost 9 ¾ cents on the week. July meal settled down 2.1 on the week at 329.8, while soy oil ended the week at 77.72, up 3.74. The bean market, from a technical standpoint, looks much better. We still have the 100-day and 200-day well below the market as bean prices sit in the midst of the shorter-term moving averages. Part of what is keeping beans relatively strong is bean-oil, which posted a contract-high close on Friday. With the buildout of the crush industry, we have continued domestic demand growth, while the longer-term supply situation could be burdensome. Given fertilizer prices, the likelihood of more bean acres, not only in the US in the next 12 months seems a given. Therefore, some consideration of locking in the first small increment of ’27 beans might be given some consideration.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were off a shade on the week at 300 kmt. Basis was steady:
• My local beans: 20 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 25 over July (5 cents improved)
• River: 22 over July (2 cents improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans didn’t move much this past week. With the board somewhat dead on a week-to-week viewpoint, the basis wasn’t moving much either. I don’t have much new to say on beans-in all honesty, most are out of old beans. If you have some left, it’s served you well keeping some around. Depending on where you’re at, there’s no doubt you could see some strong basis levels moving forward with crush margins so robust. Keep in mind if we move lower on the board, though, basis would have to do a ton of work. I personally like getting down to gambling bushels, but it’s up to the holder of those beans to make that decision.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.90, up 2 ¼ on the week. New beans are the only thing we could talk about that rallied this past week. It’s interesting in that many are predicting bean acres to be up but given thawed out relations between the US and China, the chance we see more bean purchases is still alive. It’s really a challenge to know how these bean prices might trade moving forward, so I believe it best to go back to the basics. Figure your break-even for beans and market accordingly. If you know you can make money at $11.50 fall beans and can get that for them, it may be wise to lock some in. I know a few were hedging some off above $12, and I assume we get that shot again-but trying to outguess this market can drive a guy nuts. Keep it as simple as you can and base sales on where you can turn a profit. If you want help with a marketing plan that locks in net profit while leaving us a chance to participate in a rally, let us know.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market got back to work this past week. Taking advantage of a rally after such a tough market the previous week is good business in my opinion.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.