Good Evening!
I hope your week was a good one. I know many of you had some rain, and while ours wasn’t anything too impressive, we received between 0.25 to 0.5 in. We were forecasted to receive quite a bit more than that, but we’ll take whatever we can get at this time of year. All of our hay has either been baled or mowed and while we got to some of it a little late, it is essentially how the spring has gone for us. I know many of you have had a rougher go than we have, so I hate to complain-but that’s something I believe most of us do when it comes to the weather. We, like most of you, we are expecting some serious heat over the next few days. While we’re going to see some remarkable growth in the crops, we have to hope this heat doesn’t last too long. Even with the multiple rain events we’ve had the last few weeks, I’m not sure we have much in the way of subsoil moisture, as most of these rains have been light in volume. It’s been great hearing from so many of you about how your crops are doing, as well as general feedback. Keep it coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.
Many of you have already started using the AgMarket app. Those of you who have questions, please reach out, and we’ll help you figure out how to navigate it. The research part is easy, but the MyFarm portion you may need some tutoring on. I’d be glad to help, so don’t be afraid to shoot me your questions. As I’ve said previously, Beck’s is putting the app in the Commitment Rewards Program, so those of you interested may want to use three points instead of buying it (it is cheaper than the app store, just FYI). CLICK HERE for more information on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market was as dead as a doornail, while beans essentially held their ground for the week. With the trade seeing weather as less-than-threatening, buyers have remained on the sidelines. No major news hit this past week other than the war drum beating in the Middle East. Outside markets were active with mixed signals. The following prices are where we were trading late in the session but before the close on Friday.
CORN
July corn had a tough week, with sellers active throughout. July settled at $4.28 ¾, down 4 ¾. This was 6 ¼ off the high and ½ off the low. July lost 15 ¾ cents for the week. With nothing to get the bulls excited as far as the weather was concerned, solid demand didn’t do much to ward off the selling. Big export shipments on Monday were paired with a big sell-off for corn, and solid ethanol and export sales numbers were also ignored. The funds remain short a significant amount of contracts-well over 150k, so it’s clear they feel no need to own corn at this point. In all honesty, the complete void of a weather premium for corn isn’t necessarily common as we get closer to pollination, but this market has been a head-scratcher for some time, and I’m afraid it will continue to be. Most of the news on renewable fuels appears friendly, with imported ethanol essentially not receiving the tax credits we would see with homegrown. We have to hope once this legislation gets pushed through, it maintains the positive nature we’ve seen when it comes to the recommendations put forth. While staying patient with the market hasn’t been much fun, I can’t, in good faith, recommend selling in here. If we do get a weather scare and subsequent rally, I’d be sure to have offers in now, as I’m not sure a rally will have much staying power without a complete pattern shift in the weather. I’m going to give it a little time yet.
DEMAND
Corn demand was steady on the week. Net export sales came in at 904 KMT, which was up over 100k from a week ago. New-crop sales were 155k, so overall sales were solid. Ethanol grind was at 108 MB, down a million bushels but still a strong number. Stocks were up on the week. Basis is steady:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were lower on the week in most areas. While the east is still posting stout basis, some areas farther west and north are posting the opposite. There’s no doubt a decent amount of corn is in the Dakotas into Minnesota, while areas to the east of me in central Illinois are feeling the pull to poultry and pork feeders on the eastern coast. As end-users get short on the coverage they have, we’ll likely see basis try to do the work. However, if we don’t see a weather issue, I expect those grain originators will stay a bit obstinate when it comes to bidding up. If we get into a weather scare, we could expect basis to be strong even with a strong board. My gut continues to tell me on these gambling bushels we should see how the weather plays out over the next two to three weeks. Anything more than gambling bushels scares me a bit, so for those holding old corn, we need to know our plan. My best advice is to keep your offers current.
2025 CORN
December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.41 ¼, down 1 ¾. While losing some ground on the week, December corn saw a much better market than we saw with the nearby July. While the weather is solid right now, the heat coming in likely kept the sellers from getting aggressive, especially as we head towards pollination. Going into these summer weekends, there’s no way of knowing how the models might flip from Friday’s noon run until Sunday night. While we don’t see any major threats just yet, the market is still assuming big acres paired with a record yield. So, what could go wrong there? While I think a good percentage of us are looking at big-time yield potential, we’re a long way from having a crop in the bin. The acreage number here a week from Monday is a huge one, and this report has the potential to see us trade limit either way. Given we haven’t seen the market do that in some time, I’m not sure I’d rule anything out. What would be interesting is if we get a bearish acreage and stocks number while staring at a hot and dry forecast. Regardless, we’re likely looking at major volatility over the next month, so let’s hope it creates some opportunities to get where we want to when it comes to making sales. As always, if you’re profitable, I see no issue in moving forward, but if you’re not able to call these prices a win-I believe I’d stay away from locking in a loss. Let us know if we can help you manage some of your risk. Using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk management.
Corn Market Theme
I am trying to remain patient on both old and new. With corn slipping on the board, many areas are seeing basis pushes. I am keeping on the path of continuing to stay flexible, keeping offers in place above the market.
July 2025 Corn Chart
SOYBEANS
Beans performed better than corn this past week. July closed at $10.68, down 6 ¾ on Friday. This was 12 ¼ off the high and 1 off the low. Beans were down 1 ¾ on the week. Meal settled 7.8 lower on the week at 284.1, while soy oil ended the week at 54.47, up 3.87. We again have been reaping the benefits of positive renewable fuels proposals, so let’s hope some of these commitments to domestic consumption come to pass. Soy oil having such a great week certainly bolstered the bean market, so we have to hope the positive vibes keep coming. When we look at world bean stocks, we’re not running out anytime soon, and with Brazil continuing to plant more beans each year, it’s quite important we keep domestic usage a priority. It appears as of now, the administration, along with the EPA, is in agreement. When assessing the bean crop here in the US, it sure seems it’s not in near the shape we see corn so far. With bean ratings on Monday well under corn ratings and the bean crop getting in the ground a bit later than many of us would have preferred, I’m going to assume some weather premium will keep building. I’m not necessarily bullish beans, but we have some good things going here, and until we feel better about the US bean crop; I have to think we’ll see good support. I want to remain flexible while layering in sales on rallies.
DEMAND
Soybean exports rebounded nicely and seasonally a big surprise at 539k tons, almost a half-million tons in excess of last week. With 75k posted for next marketing year, bean exports were a nice surprise. Basis was steady/wider.
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were mixed on the week. While some areas are running a bit short on beans, prompting some basis pushes, other areas are still signaling a slow-down in crush. With cash beans on the river backing off, it’s likely due to the interior basis levels plummeting a week ago. The river is certainly buying more beans, relatively speaking, due to the difference in bids, but again, there aren’t a ton of beans out there to buy. Holding old beans from here is a bit of a risky proposition, so those with gambling bushels need to decide what their price points are. I’d rather have my risk in new beans as we move forward, especially if we see crush back off, as many assume. Now, with cash bids getting smoked in some areas and soy oil going up, there’s a chance crush stays a bit more resilient than we would have thought a week ago. I’d still be strongly considering being out of my old beans over the next few weeks before we get close to harvest in the Delta.
2025 SOYBEANS
November 2025 beans settled at $10.60 ¾, a rally of 10 cents on the week. November beans have seen a little more interest than old crop, and I can only assume it’s due to how the bean crop looks so far. I have heard from countless growers how their beans look tough, especially in relation to their corn. Personally, our April-planted beans look stellar, but the May-planted crop is a little rough around the edges. As we think about price levels on beans, I can’t help but think $10.50 cash gets some growers interested. I’d sure consider having offers in that $10.85 to $11 range basis the board. These are price levels where a grower can typically see a cash price in that $10.50 range, so I would expect some hedge pressure to be present in those areas.
Bean Market Theme:
This bean market has put together a few good weeks. I like having offers in place as we rally. I’d keep some flexibility, but try your best not to get too bullish if we keep moving higher.
July 2025 Soybean Chart
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321