Good Morning!
I’m heading back home after a family reunion on my wife’s side. We went out to Utah and spent time in St. George. It’s quite an area-and the first time I’ve been there. We enjoyed having some time away to visit with family and get some rest. We missed the severe weather that went through central Illinois by a few miles north of us and south of us. We had friends with total losses due to either hail or high winds/tornadoes, so the outbreak was quite intense. On our farms, we had between a half-inch and an inch+ on our farms and the wind wasn’t too bad. While we didn’t get wind damage, we have some fields that have had more than enough moisture in the last couple of weeks. We’re going to monitor closely to make sure we haven’t lost nitrogen or have disease we need to manage. Overall, our crops look good, all things considered. It’s been about impossible to get the hay cut and baled, so we’re hoping to get a window sometime this week. I appreciate the feedback many of you continue to send. Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.
I didn’t do a podcast this past week due to being on vacation. We’ll get one put together this coming Tuesday.
Both corn and beans were able to find some traction this last week after serious selling of late. While the war is reportedly over, it appears there’s been enough selling for the time being. Outside markets saw weekly changes as follows as of the time of this writing prior to Friday’s close.
CORN
July ‘26 corn finally found a bottom for the time being but didn’t gain much ground. July settled at $4.17 ½, down 3 ½. This was 4 ½ off the high and 2 ½ off the low. July rallied 4 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market looks like we could have a low in for the time being-with a settlement above the 5-day moving average, we look better than we have the last couple of weeks. Having no markets on Friday due to the Juneteenth holiday, we didn’t get a COT report. My guess is the funds selling spree finally lost some steam. Crop conditions this past week improved one point to 68% good/excellent, but I believe it was notable conditions in Iowa lost 5% g/e. The fact of the matter is there are plenty of areas that have had way too much rain. Some of you in Kansas, all the way to Ohio have mentioned you believe yields are already compromised due to too much rain. If we’re honest, it’s historically been tough to rally a market on ‘too much rain’, but I understand the frustration when it’s on your farm. Given how many are struggling with this, I believe we’ll find out later rather than sooner that this crop has been hurt. I have to think we’ll get some support for new-crop due to this but getting old-crop to rally given how much we have sitting around could be easier said than done.
DEMAND
Corn demand was solid again this past week. Exports came in at 1.157 mmt, over 150k higher than a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a small decrease on the week, coming in at 104 mb. Stocks were essentially unchanged. Basis was mostly improved:
• My local basis: 15 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 15 over July (no change)
• St. Louis River: 23 over July (no change)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were up for the first week in a while. Basis didn’t widen, which is good news but expected after such a plummet on prices of late and just a nickel rally on the board for the week. Some pushes here and there have been reported as farmer selling has slowed to a crawl. While I don’t like selling after such a drop, we need to have our plan in place soon. Again, I don’t like storing corn past pollination, especially in a year where stocks are so stout. If you want to keep ownership after selling, I might consider buying my calls on new-crop as continued weather issues would likely be more supportive to ’26 than ’25 crop.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.44, up 3 ¾ on the week. Dec corn got back up close to $4.50 on the week and seemed to find resistance. While I know many are feeling like they ‘missed the boat’ on prices they should have sold at, I’m not in the mood to sell after a break like this. Given where we are on sales officially, we’re not looking to sell any corn unless we can get back over the $4.70 area prior to harvest. Any weather problems and/or new business from China could make this corn market look quite a bit different, o keeping your head about you for now is advisable. For those with no sales on, it makes sense to figure a break-even with current yield projections-and if it works, hedging off some risk. If it doesn’t remember we’re early in the marketing year. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market is attempting a dead-cat bounce. Keeping some patience for now might be considered while keeping tabs on where we can make money on new-while getting your plan in place for old corn.
BEANS
Beans also showed some life this past week but finished poorly on Thursday. July beans settled at $11.22 ¾, down 9 ¼. This was 12 off the high and 4 ¼ off the low. Beans rallied 9 ¼ cents on the week. July meal settled unchanged on the week at 301.3, while soy oil struggled, settling at the 100-day moving average at 69.69, down 4.59. The bean market caught a bid on news China was hunting prices on fall US beans early in the week but faltered as funds weren’t too keen on extending their long. While we have strong demand continuing, as evidenced by a crush number at 208 for May, we still have a global balance-sheet that is anything but tight. Given thoughts US bean acres should grow as well as South American acres possibly shifting to even more soybeans, a word of caution might be most applicable for those wanting to get bulled up. As with corn, old and new-crop are two different animals and should be handled as such. Having a plan based on your farm’s profitability is of utmost importance.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were twice what we saw a week ago at 425 kmt. Basis was steady:
• My local beans: 15 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 25 over July (a nickel improved)
• River: 21 over July (1 penny improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans gained some ground on the board rally while basis improved in some areas. As we’ve talked about many times, being close to a crush plant could come in handy on a year like this when crush margins are as good as they’ve ever been. I know most are down to gambling bushels, but if you are sitting on many of these beans, I’d sure get some offers in place. Some of these rallies can be sharp but short-lived at the same time. As with corn, if we hold onto them too long, we may get stuck with some cheap beans should acres grow and summer weather be good enough for a big national bean yield.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.42 ¾, up 10 ¾ on the week. New beans found some footing this past week as well. While we’re over 70 cents off the highs, many growers can still get $11 or more for a fall delivery bid. While that may work well for some, it likely doesn’t work for everyone. Given beans don’t like wet feet, it would be tough to assume a big yield for some of the growers hardest hit with big rains. Marketing these beans needs to be based on your operation and yours only. It’s tough to outguess the markets, so my best bet for those of you who have to deliver this fall is get your offers in place based on your break-evens. Incremental sales at profitable levels is a wise strategy to consider.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market looks like it may also have a low in for now. For those with much risk at all, get your offers in place and make sure you have break-evens dialed in as closely as you can.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.