June 24th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We’re wet around our place. While we’ve not been at any shortage of moisture on any of our farms, we’d dodged the hail and for the most part, the bigger rain totals. While we didn’t need rain by any means, on Sunday we had 2.5 to 3.5 inches on every farm. We have some bottom ground that was planted to corn and may end up with some beans planted if we ever dry up. On the flip-side, the pattern-tiled ground has performed well and looks about as good as could be. It’s nuts, but we haven’t even been able to get the first cutting of hay knocked out. I’m not hoping for dry weather though, as it seems one extreme follows another. I know many of you are dealing with the same wet conditions, so I hope things improve. As we saw in Iowa last year, fungicide for many of us is something we need to strongly consider. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn and bean markets aren’t much fun to watch again this week. While we’re not getting beat up too bad, corn can’t catch a break, while beans have tried to rally but the buying just isn’t there. The wet conditions in the corn-belt has buyers on the sidelines for now as funds continue to sell. Outside markets likely had a muted impact:

• The US Dollar settled up .379 at 101.173.
• August crude oil settled down .65 at 73.21.
• The DOW settled down 37 points at 52,082.

Corn – The corn market saw some green on the overnight market but selling pushed us lower on the day. July corn closed down 1 ¾ at $4.09 ¾. This was 4 ¾ off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were a bit below expectations at 1.454 mmt. While off from what was expected, it’s still a big number and keeps us well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA goal. 97% of the crop is emerged, which compares to 97% both last year and for the 5-year average. The crop ratings stayed at 68% good/excellent, which compares to 70% a year ago. I’ve been asked several times why we’re moving lower when so many areas have had too much rain, but it’s again tough to rally the markets when it’s green throughout most of the corn-belt. Most areas have no shortage of moisture, so the markets have no weather premium. Will we get any weather premium before harvest? It’s tough to tell, but typically we see a fair bit of volatility between now and grain-fill. If we don’t get a rally, I like the prospects of putting corn in the big as we likely have some areas where production has been hurt by excessive moisture-and some of these areas are big-time production. Cash corn looks dead as a doornail, but we’ve seen some basis gains which helps a little. I’m out of old-corn and 50% sold on new, so I see no reason to sell more in the absence of a strong rally. Dec corn settled down 2 ¼ at $4.37 ¼.

Soybeans – Soybeans also saw some buying on the day and held onto slight gains. July settled 1 ¼ higher at $11.17. This was 6 ¾ off the high and 3 off the low. July soybean meal was up 3.1 at 302.9, while soy oil was down .56 at 70.59. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 241k mt, which was below expectations-this time of year, we don’t see much in the way of bean shipments. 93% of the beans were emerged, which compares to 90% on average. The bean crop was rated 66% good/excellent. The bean market has fallen off the highs, but at the same time, it seems to be holding in there pretty good considering world stocks being ample. Whether we’re looking at old or new beans, I’d be cautious as to snub my nose at profitable prices. If you know you can make money at these levels, consider what hedging off some risk might do for your piece of mind and your farm’s success. Nov beans settled at $11.41 ¾, up ¼.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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