Good Morning!
I hope your last few days are going better than mine have. While I know there are worse things in life, the pain from a kidney stone is just as intense as I’ve always heard. On Friday night, we went to the lake with our kids and some friends, and just before we were heading home, I had pain like I’d never had. After spending a night and Saturday in the ER and getting worked on, we found the dang thing was too big to pass, so I’m hoping to get it removed this week. Zero fun, indeed. Around home, it’s hotter than blue blazes. We’ve had 95-degree days for the last three, and we’re supposed to have a few more to come. With little chance of precipitation, we’re hoping something changes soon. On Monday and Tuesday, our corn was rolling in the heat as we sap out the moisture in the ground. I’m ok with it for now, but man, I hope we get some rain soon. I have heard from many of you farther west that you are getting all the rain you want. I’m glad to hear it, but it would sure be nice if you could spread that around. Keep in touch. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets can’t buy a break this week. Both traded poorly on Tuesday after a lackluster trade on Monday. Any hopes of a turnaround on Tuesday were likely dashed by a free fall in the crude oil market, which has been a two-day event. Given tensions in the Middle East, it’s a bit of a surprise to see crude down like this. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market got roughed up on Monday and continued the spiral. On Monday, July closed down 9 ½, then another 3 lower on Tuesday, settling at $4.16 ¼. This was 6 ¼ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. This was a contract-low close for July as we move closer to the end of the July contract. Weekly export inspections were off from a week ago but are still quite large at 1.477mmt. We continue to run well ahead of the USDA pace, which leads me to believe they’ll take exports up again in July. We even had a 650k-ton sale announcement to Mexico on Tuesday morning, which did nothing to stem the selling. The good-excellent rating came in at 70%, which was two points lower than a week ago. Some areas of the corn belt, particularly where I’m at and east, are seeing their corn crop head the wrong way. Plenty of other areas in the WCB are getting plenty of rain, which is where the trade is choosing to keep its focus for now. South American-based agency AgroConsult came out with a new estimate for the safrinha crop in Brazil, seeing production surge 10.4 mmt to 123.3! This has been weighing on the market of late as Brazil continues to grow in world export volume. I’ll be honest: this corn market has been a surprise and, of course, a big disappointment. I still have no interest in selling at these levels as they don’t work for most growers, even with a monster crop. I’m hopeful we’ll see a bounce after Monday’s acreage and stocks report. Either way, I want to see those numbers along with a two-week forecast next week before I get too aggressive. December corn was down 4 ¾ on Tuesday, settling at $4.29.
July 2025 Corn Chart
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are no longer in rally mode, especially this week. On Monday, July beans were 9 ¼ lower, then settled down another 12 on Tuesday, settling at $10.46 ¾. This was 15 ½ off the high and ½ off the low. Soybean meal was down 1.9 at 280.5, while soy oil was down 1.07 at 52.17. Soybean export inspections were below a week ago at 197k tons. This total was 20k less than a week ago levels and within expectations. For planting progress, we saw 96% of the beans planted and 90% emerged. The good/excellent rating remained at the same level as last week, at 66%. While bean conditions continue to lag corn, the market doesn’t seem too concerned just yet. Given big global supplies, even strong demand news by way of renewable fuels hasn’t been able to keep beans in rally mode. The biggest detriment to the bean market on Tuesday was the crude oil market plummeting, which spilled over to bean oil. I know, it seems we can’t catch a break. I’m hopeful that we will see these markets finally find something positive to trade in the next week or so, but if the weather continues to look as good as it has overall, we have a long road ahead. On Tuesday, Nov beans closed 9 ¾ lower at $10.37.
July 2025 Soybean Chart
Till next time!
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321