June 29th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s been a good week of catching up after being out of the office. We had plenty of rain again with most of our farms receiving between 3.5-5 inches for the week. While we were supposed to get another soaker on Friday, it appears we’ll miss the biggest rains, which doesn’t bother me one bit. Our tiled ground looks as good as can be, but some of our other ground is no doubt struggling. The beans, which were flowering by summer solstice, have some yellowing here and there due to the water, so we’re hoping the upcoming heat will bring them around, but anywhere we still have water standing likely gives up the ghost. One thing is for sure, with how wet we’ve been, fungicide app and timing will be of utmost importance-and for many of you, will be the same. We still haven’t gotten all of our hay baled-this will be the latest we’ve baled our pastures in my career, and we’re hoping the quality isn’t too compromised. I appreciate all of you reaching out-it seems I’ve heard from way more who are too wet than otherwise, so please reach out if you’re looking at ideal or close to ideal conditions. Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This week on the podcast we covered profitability considering sales already made along with production adjustments. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

The corn and bean markets weren’t moving near as much this past week as we’ve seen of late. While early in the week we saw some selling, we saw a nice rally on Thursday followed by a quiet tone on Friday. The June planted acreage and quarterly stocks report is out on Tuesday and we’ll cover that below-one of the biggest reports of the year. Outside markets saw weekly changes as follows as of the time of this writing prior to Friday’s close.

• The US Dollar was up .873 at 100.618.
• July crude oil was down 7.22 at 77.54.
• The DOW was up 403 points at 52,008.

CORN

July ‘26 corn tried at times to rally this past week but still lost ground. July settled at $4.12 ¾, down 2. This was 4 ¾ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. July lost 4 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market still looks pretty rough. After making a new contract low on Thursday, we saw a nice rally with July closing up 7 ¾ on the day. However, no follow-through was present on Friday so we’re not far from the contract low still. Corn is cheap right now, which likely keeps demand rolling along full-speed-ahead. This likely gives support on further down the road, but it can also make sales tough to gauge in the meantime. The report on Tuesday will be looking at planted acreage and quarterly stocks. For acres, the average trade guess is 95.1 ma, which is close to AgM’s guess of 94.9. While I have no idea where we see these numbers come in at, what I do know is a number under 94.5 would likely be friendly, while a number above 96 is the last thing we want to see. What could give us support is the quarterly stocks report as demand has been so strong. There’s also the possibility USDA might have overestimated the 2025 crop-and if they did, we likely see evidence of that on Tuesday. Hopefully, we’ll see strong demand without a big acreage jump. Either way, I like ownership of corn on down the road, but we’ll need help if we want to see a rally in the short-term.

DEMAND

Corn demand was soft this past week. Exports came in at 743 kmt, 400k shy of a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a small decrease on the week, coming in at 103 mb. Stocks were up a shade. Basis was mostly improved:

• My local basis: 9 under July (6 cents improved)

• Decatur: 17 over July (two cents improved)

• St. Louis River: 32 over July (9 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were steady on the week. While basis on the river made for higher cash prices, even with the drop on the board, most places saw basis narrow to some degree. Again, we need to work on getting these old bushels wrapped up sooner rather than later. If we get a pop on Tuesday, I’d pay close attention as grain buyers know they have corn arriving in the next couple of months. I’d get some orders in place with a goal of being wrapped up soon.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.41 ½, down 2 ½ on the week. Dec corn got up to $4.46 ¼ on Friday but failed to see additional buying come in. While I’m in a hurry on old-corn, I’m a little more friendly to new. Now, it’s tough to predict a rally between here and harvest without weather issues or possible Chinese buying. However, even if prices are stagnant between now and harvest, I tend to think storing corn could be a good idea. With fertilizer backing off, 2027 prospects look better now than they did previously. However, if Dec27 doesn’t rally, acreage could dip further this coming year, or precipitate a rally to get those acres. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market looks to be settling in down here close to the lows. Getting old-crop priced and elevator bushels on new-crop designated before harvest should be considered.

BEANS

Beans fared a bit better than corn this past week, which has been a feature of late. July beans settled at $11.26 ½, down 1 ¼. This was 1 ¾ off the high and 7 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 3 ½ cents on the week. July meal settled up 5.7 on the week at 307, while soy oil also rallied, settling at 71.30, up 1.61. The bean market struggled for much of the week before rallying 18 ¾ cents on Thursday. That essentially gave beans the ability to close higher on the week. With talk China might be buying some new-crop beans along with energy markets and thus soy oil rallying gave buyers something to get excited about. While beans have fared well of late, this report on Tuesday needs to be neutral to friendly to keep sellers at bay. Given world fundamentals and talk Brazil could boost bean acres even more than previously thought, this bean market looks susceptible to selling pressure on any sort of negative news. I’m not necessarily bearish, but I struggle to be bullish beans at these prices at the present time.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were solid again and a give above a week ago at 455 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 12 under July (three cents improved)

• Decatur: 35 over July (a dime improved)

• River: 30 over July (9 cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans gained some ground on the week. Given we saw a little rally on the board, it was nice to see basis improve as well. This tells me cash movement on beans isn’t what originators need to see. Crush margins are still impressive, so bids are likely to stay strong to keep the flow of beans coming in. Again, these are likely gambling bushels, so it depends on how long a person wants to stay at the table. I’d be cautious as to hold on too long, though. A person might have offers in and hope we catch a bid on Tuesday. If that report is bearish, it’s likely a good time to get old-crop cleaned up.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.56 ¼, up 13 ½ on the week. New beans were the most impressive of everything we talk about here this past week. While many are calling for bean acres to be up, it’s impressive to see buying coming in. While beans got in the ground earlier than normal this year, there’s been plenty of talk of water-logged beans the last week or two. We all know beans don’t like wet feet, so I’m assuming there are those who are worried about how this crop may turn out. At the same time, I’m of the opinion if we’re profitable at these levels, it may be best to lock in worst-case scenarios at levels we can live with. Could beans be a dollar lower at harvest? I certainly think that’s a possibility. AgM is at 60% sold for new beans, and I have put floors under a few more bushels yet, just in case we see this market take a bath at some point. All I know is I can make money with Nov over $11.50, so I’m going to ensure I don’t lose out on that opportunity while keeping some upside open. If you want some help with a marketing plan like that, be sure and reach out.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market keeps hanging in there. If you have risk, you might look at quantifying some of that heading into this report, whether old or new-crop.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.