Good Morning!
I hope you’ve had a productive week. While I know there’s a handful of growers getting started with the season, most of us are still waiting. We’ve been super close to running this past week, but a shower on Sunday and then more rain Thursday night into Friday morning have kept us parked. Given it was 75-80 degrees on Thursday and received almost an inch of rain, with a high of 45 on Friday, I’m ok waiting for the time being. If you’re like me, you’ve watched some basketball the last couple of weeks. My Illini are playing the Hawkeyes on Saturday, and by the time most of you read this, that outcome will have been decided. For basketball fans, it’s serious business, and I can assure you, my wife will be thrilled when the season is over. Either way, we’re about to get busy as soon as Mother Nature decides to cooperate. There’s a decent chance we’ll be planting beans in the next week or so, as long as these rains quit showing up every three or four days. Keep me posted on your progress if possible.
This past week on the podcast, we talked about how acres might turn out and how that would affect supply and demand. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
The corn and bean markets were both higher on the week heading into Friday’s trade. On Friday, we pulled back, ensuring small losses on the week. While the big Ag Day event at the White House was labeled to have ‘good news’ for the American farmer, as expected, we received the RVO numbers, which didn’t impress the trade, as they were likely already factored into prices. Outside markets were trading as follows as of this writing:
CORN
May 2026 corn ended the week with small losses after lower trade on Friday. May settled at $4.62, down 5. This was 8 ½ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. May lost 3 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this market still looks to be in a nice uptrend with higher lows scored on this recent rally. While we aren’t making new highs, the uptrend looks to be in place. This corn market is still going to struggle to distance itself from the direction of energy markets. While a bearish report on Tuesday would generally see markets plummet, if the war isn’t perceived to end soon, I’m not sure we go down much. Conversely, if the war appears to be over or close to over, it would be tough to rally corn without a very low acreage number and if the war has escalated, we should see a sharp move higher. There’s no way to know which direction we may go, so a person latching onto some worst-case scenarios isn’t a bad thing to consider. A percentage at profitable prices is better than getting none sold in the event we move back lower.
DEMAND
Corn demand improved this past week. Exports came in at 1.218 mmt, up 50k from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol was also up, coming in at just under 108 mb. Stocks were up again. Basis was steady:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were a bit softer on the week in most areas, with the loss on the board. While the river remains a hot bid, and many areas likely saw some price appreciation, interior bids, especially in Illinois and the west, didn’t see any basis improvement. This is likely due to a significant amount of corn moving. The last three weeks have seen heavy farmer selling, as evidenced by the amount of corn the commercial continues to sell. As we get closer to the USDA report, the whole corn complex is still beholden to what happens in the Middle East. If we see energy prices remain strong, corn should have support. However, if we see signs of a cease-fire with some authenticity, there’s no doubt energy markets would struggle, which would likely spill over into our corn market. Keep this in mind when deciding what to do regarding sales, particularly after the nice rally we’ve seen over the last couple of months.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.90 ¾, down ¾ of a penny on the week. This last week, we saw December trade back up to $495 ½, or about three cents off the high we saw in the previous week. With several growers trying to get hedges off as close to $5 as possible, a fair amount of new crop has been getting sold as well. It’s tough to argue with getting more risk management in place at prices we haven’t seen in a couple of years. On the flip-side, once a grower gets to a hedge level they feel is adequate, it’s understandable to hold off for now. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, it should have a positive impact on energy markets, which should support corn as well. I have hedged 40% of my corn, but that doesn’t mean I’m bearish. We have to understand it just means we’re willing to lock in worst-case scenarios at profitable levels. Consider how you want to approach this market and get your plan put in place. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market lost some ground on the week but appears well supported. Energy markets are likely the driver, so some risk management should be considered if you haven’t done much with the rally so far.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans had a decent week before the drop on Friday. May beans settled at $11.59 ¼ on the close, down 14 ½. This was 19 ½ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. Beans lost 2 cents on the week. May meal settled 12.7 lower on the week at 315.3, while soy oil ended the week at 67.41, up 1.90. The move on Friday didn’t have much to do with anything other than ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’. While the RVO numbers are a continued move in the right direction towards using more of what we’re growing here domestically, the trade has already had those types of numbers floated for some time. With estimates for a monster Brazilian crop and most assuming big US bean acres in 2026, it’s tough to be bullish fundamentally, especially with a big fund long.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were up on the week at 669 kmt. Basis was steady:
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans didn’t do much this week. With a slightly lower price on the board, the basis improved in many areas, negating the losses. I don’t have much news to talk about on old beans. We know there aren’t many of them in growers’ hands, but we also know the fundamental story isn’t super friendly. If I had old beans, I’d maybe still gamble with a few, although selling them would be a nice reward for being patient. It’s ultimately up to the beholder but I wouldn’t carry too many bushels if it were me.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $11.44, up 3 on the week. New beans were only down 8 ¾ on Friday, so they didn’t have nearly as bad a day as nearby beans. Also, it appears new crops have been possibly trying to buy some acres here lately, with November remaining well supported. It’s tough to know the direction here, but my worry about new crop beans is just how big this acreage number could get. If we see much switching from corn to beans due to fertilizer pricing and availability, the final bean number could be bigger than this Tuesday’s report shows. The trend certainly appears to be a bigger bean acreage number due to a variety of issues. I like locking in some beans for those who haven’t done much yet, but as always, I’d keep some flex in the plan, since we don’t know just how crazy things could if this war drags on.
Soybean Market Theme: The bean market looks solid for the time being. Be aware of how much volatility can occur with this acreage report. These are some of the best prices we’ve seen in a couple of years when it comes to hedging.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.