Good Morning!
I hope your week is going well. It’s been a good week around home. We’ve had some rain each day so far with no downpours. All of the moisture we’ve had to this point has made it into the ground, which is all a guy could ask for. While a couple of guys locally were working ground over the weekend, that’s of course come to a halt for the time being. In fact, we have rain in the forecast more days than not in the two weeks, so it looks like we’re going to work on this drought a bit before planting time. I’m not going to complain about the rain by any means, but I hope we don’t get in a rut where it’s a wet spring, nothing like ‘trying’ to wait until the ground gets fit. I guess we’ll have to take what Mother Nature deals us and make the most of it. For more information on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The markets were up strong on Monday’s overnight markets but gave much of it back by the close. Since I last wrote, much has changed with the US/Israel bombing of Iran. With crude oil spiking over the last two days, we’ve seen some jostling in markets, with fertilizer prices spiking but ag commodities not benefiting nearly as much. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
Corn – The corn market started the week down a bit on Monday and tried to get back those losses on Tuesday, but failed. On Tuesday, May corn closed ¾ higher at $4.46 ½. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 2 ¼ off the low. Corn export inspections were large and above expectations at 1.859 mmt. This was a bit lower than a week ago, but still a big number. The trade on Tuesday morning early showed corn a nickel higher, but the market backed off, likely due to the strong dollar, but maybe more so due to massive farmer selling. With growers seeing basis widen every time these markets move higher, we heard of big sales this morning as elevators were on the phone buying bushels. I see this trend continuing until we chew through more of these bushels. I still feel like owning corn could pay dividends, but I’d rather do it on paper due to basis implications. One way I keep explaining it is I could see December corn futures gaining more value or holding more value than cash corn bids, again due to basis moving forward. December 2026 corn settled 1 ¼ higher at $4.71 ¼.
Soybeans – Soybeans were 6 ¾ lower on Monday before getting back most of that on Tuesday. May soybeans were up 6 ½ at $11.70 ½. This was 12 ½ off the high and 10 off the low. May soybean meal was up 1.8 at 314.7, while soy oil was up .08 at 62.82. The weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 1.148 mmt, which was above expectations and almost twice what we saw a week ago. Bean export shipments were a welcome surprise after such low numbers in the last two weeks. With beans trading up almost 20 when we all got up on Tuesday, there was certainly some excitement. While the grower doesn’t own nearly as many beans as they do in relation to corn, I’m sure some were sold to originators on this bounce. I’d assume there were quite a few sales on new crop as well, given that prices are offering $11 fall bids in more areas every day. My best recommendation would be to dial in that break-even as close as possible, and if you can lock in a worst-case scenario in the black, get some risk management employed. Maybe that’s selling fall bushels, maybe it’s a strong floor. Regardless, there are no guarantees these prices will stick around. On Tuesday, November 2026 soybeans closed 2 ¾ higher at $11.31 ½.
Matt Bennett
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