Good Morning!
I hope you had a good week. We got lucky and found a window to wrap up corn for the first time. I was surprised how quickly the ground came around but given some temps up to 80 and a little wind moving, we were able to get it done by midnight on Thursday. I woke up to rain on Friday morning, and the forecast shows 1-2 inches of rain over the next few days. As long as we don’t get a pounding rain, I like the chances of this corn coming up quickly given the ground temps. Some of the corn we planted two weeks ago really struggled to come up, but with some heat and a shower here and there, it looks like we’ll be spotting some in vs tearing it up. It’s a relief for sure. I appreciate the feedback-keep it coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.
This past week on the podcast, we talked about the USDA report and what impact it might have on our markets moving forward. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett
Corn and beans both lost ground on the week after a rough Thursday and Friday. With no big news on the trade front coming out of the President Trump and Xi meeting, the trade seemed disappointed. Given an overbought situation, this correction was overdue. Outside markets were mixed.
CORN
July ‘26 corn was looking good heading into Thursday before ending the week on the downhill slide. July settled at $4.55 ¾, down 11 ¾. This was 18 off the high and 1 ¾ off the low. July lost 15 ½ cents for th0e week. Technically, this corn market broke though all moving averages but the 200-day, where it closed on Friday. It would be good to see this level hold as we start the week. The COT report showed funds liquidating corn to the tune of 49k contracts, taking their net long down to 296k. While the trade was hopeful we’d get a trade agreement with some corn sales attached, it’s my belief the corn market has a good story with or without Chinese business. Given huge export shipments so far plus a though acres could fall, the balance sheet for this coming year is likely to tighten by a fair margin. I look for corn to find support in here as it appears there is little to no weather premium in this market. I’m not bullish, but it’s hard to be bearish given such impressive demand combined with fertilizer prices that are likely to cause world production to be challenged.
DEMAND
Corn demand was mixed this past week. Exports came in at 685 kmt, around half of what we saw a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol increased significantly on the week, coming in at 104 mb. Stocks were down. Basis was mostly improved:
• My local basis: 20 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 10 over July (2 cents improved)
• St. Louis River: 20 over July (2 cents wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were down on the week. With corn seeing better cash prices than we’d seen for this 2025 crop, a fair amount of corn has been sold recently. Basis is holding in there but not improving. When prices are moving lower this time of year, we typically see some basis strengthening. However, we have quite a bit of corn to chew through yet, so it’s not a given basis will improve a ton. I would expect if the corn market doesn’t rally back that some basis narrowing should occur this coming week, especially in areas where planting is still going on. On the back side of planting completing, cash corn will have just a few weeks to make its move. History suggests holding corn past the 4th of July or pollination timeframe isn’t rewarding a majority of the time. I still feel like selling on a rally or basis push and keeping some ownership on paper with limited risk should be considered.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.81, down 12 ½ on the week. The action in Dec corn has turned from an impressive rally to a corrective phase. With producers hopefully rewarding the rally, I realize many have been hamstrung by worrying they’d miss an even better rally. We must realize Dec corn at $4.81 is a better price than many producers thought they’d get a chance to sell at. I’m of the opinion we’ll see much better prices, but there’s no way to know. As always, our sales should be based on our break-even levels based on our cost of production. Also, keeping some flexibility is of utmost importance in a year like this with so many moving parts. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market fell back this week and needs to find support this coming week. I would expect some weather premium to come into this market, especially if we lose any acres from the March planting intentions. Keep your flex but lock in profit.
BEANS
Beans were down on the week. July beans settled at $11.77, down 15 ½. This was 25 off the high and 4 ¾ off the low. Beans lost 31 cents on the week. July meal settled up 14.6 on the week at 334.3, while soy oil ended the week at 73.88, down .44. The bean market broke through the slight uptrend we established recently but remains above both the 100 and 200-day moving averages. The meeting between President Trump and Xi produced no official agreement or additional bean sales, which is what the trade was looking for. Secretary Bessent assured reporters the original agreement of 25 mmt per year was still intact and that beans were ‘taken care of’. IF we are able to sell that many beans to China each year with the domestic demand we continue to build out, we’re not in terrible shape when it comes to this bean market-particularly when we look at the US situation. However, world production is likely to increase this coming year, especially with the fertilizer situation. Brazil, for instance, imports all of their fertilizer. Soybean production grows every year for them, but it could really ramp up in the situation we’re in. As with corn, these are excellent prices in relation to the last few years. Keeping perspective can pay dividends.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were down on the week at 102 kmt. Basis was steady:
• My local beans: 20 under July (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over July (5 cents improved)
• River: 17 over July (1 cent wider)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were moving lower on the week. Basis didn’t help us out in most places, but in areas with crush plants, we keep seeing basis pop when the market moves lower. Keep in mind crush margins have been incredible of late-over $3.50 in many areas, so bean originators have the motivation to push bids to keep the plant going. If you have old beans and are still hanging on, I still feel like getting down to gambling bushels makes sense. Having some offers out there on rallies would be advisable.
2026 BEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.70 ¾, down 18 ¾ on the week. New beans topped out at $12.13 for now, with many growers shooting for a $12 fall bid. Given my assumption bean acres move higher, I’m not sure we’ll see as much rally potential with beans as with corn, relatively speaking. Can we move another dollar higher? Of course, this bean market gets volatile enough we can see sharp moves in short order, and that’s why I believe the best way to tackle our marketing is to have target orders in place to take advantage of these quick bursts. While I can make $11 fall beans work, I know not everyone feels as though they can. Every marketing plan is going to look a little different as most of us have different overall costs. My gut feeling is bean prices right in here have a shot at looking pretty good a year from now. So, I’m content locking in base hits with some flexibility just in case we do race higher. If you want some help with a marketing plan like this, let us know.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market is taking a breather. I still like locking increments in at profitable levels-it’s tough to argue with a plan like that.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.