Good Morning!
We are still sitting. We had rain on Monday/Tuesday totaling at least an inch everywhere we farm. I’m not going to complain though-as some of our corn needed a ‘softening’ rain. At the same time, we would like to get the rest of the corn in the ground. It’s not been a perfect spring by any means, but every year is different. Some of our market strength of late likely has to do with just that fact, so there’s always some give and take. The cool temps have been something else-with many having frost/freeze events over the weekend. Hopefully, we’ll see this pattern improve as some of the forecasts are predicting. At home, we have our oldest for ten days, so all 5 kids are in the house. It’s tough to beat having all the kids at home, but one thing is for sure-I’m going to need to catch up on sleep sooner or later. Keep me posted on how things are going for you and your operation. For on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market started the week on a good not is strong to start the week, following along with a stout wheat market. Beans aren’t getting in in the action just yet and have lagged a bit. With such a poorly rated wheat crop and decent progress on bean planting, thoughts of potentially more bean acres have likely been holding beans back in my opinion. With war in the Middle-East not making much progress, energy and ags have likely felt support. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
Corn – The corn market is having a nice week so far. July corn closed up 6 ¼ at $4.75 ½. This was 9 ½ off the high and 6 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were abovea expectations at 1.644 mmt. This was just less than a week ago but still impressive. Shipments of corn are running over 30% ahead of last year while the USDA is forecasting around a 15% increase. 25% of the crop is planted, which compares to 22% last year and 19% for the 5-year average. While corn has its own story with some areas possibly backing off on acreage due to weather and/or fertilizer prices, it’s getting some help from a rallying wheat market. World feedgrain prices are likely benefiting off of potential Urea shortages and other nitrogen like anhydrous, which could have shortages and price implications. I like the action, but as always would prefer an incremental sale on a rally versus getting too bulled up. On the flip-side, I’m 40-50% sold or protected and want to keep flexibility on any additional sales moving forward. It sure looks like Dec26 corn is heading to $5-which settled up 6 ¼ t $4.95 ¾.
Soybeans – Soybeans aren’t rallying along with the corn and wheat market so far this week. July beans were down 2 ¾ at $11.89 ¾. This was 3 off the high and 7 off the low. July soybean meal was down .4 at 327.4, while soy oil was higher, settling up 1.12 at 73.38. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 748k mt, which was below expectations again and below what we saw a week ago. Bean planting continues to make progress with 23% of the crop planted versus 17% a year ago and 12% as a 5-year average. While corn planting has edged ahead of bean planting, it’s clear many growers prioritized planting beans first this year as evidenced by progress so far. Bean demand domestically remains strong, but with thoughts bean acres could grow due to how this spring and geo-political issues are playing out, some pressure is holding us back. Several of these contracts are within striking distance of $12, so it’s possible if we can establish ourselves above $12, we can go back and test the old highs closer to $12.50. If that happens, a person would have been glad to keep some flex in their plan. Whether old or new beans, I like having some skin in the game in the environment we’re in currently. However, it sure seems like beans want to make a run at $12 again. Nov beans settled at $11.67, up 1 ¼.
Matt Bennett
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