Good Morning!
It’s been a roller-coaster for the weather of late for many of us. While we started the week with lows down to 20, we’re ending the week with highs in the 70s. It’s crazy how much these temperatures have fluctuated! While most of the fieldwork is done in our area, we’re seeing some tile and dirt work getting accomplished. Given how dry we’ve been, a guy couldn’t ask for a better chance to get some of these projects knocked out. I’m hearing from some in the seed industry that corn acres could rival what we saw here in 2025. While corn-on-corn looks to be a challenge from a cash-flow standpoint, I’ve heard of several instances where growers have put gas on their worked corn stalks. Given a little life in December 2026 corn of late, my thoughts on 2026 acres have shifted somewhat. While I doubt we can plant 98 ma again, we may not fall near as much as I originally assumed. I’d again love to hear from you on any acreage thoughts or shifts. I appreciate the feedback, and would encourage you to keep it coming, or reach out if you haven’t done so yet.
My podcast on their YouTube live channel went smooth as can be this last week. For those that haven’t tuned in, we shoot for 10:30 a.m. CST each Tuesday, but if you can’t catch it live, you can find it on YouTube HERE. Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (11/11/2025) - YouTube.
The AgMarket winter conference is all set for February 1-2 in Nashville, Tennessee, and I’d like to invite you to look at what we have planned. With speakers like Eric Snodgrass, Josh Linville, Dr. David Kohl, and Joe Vaclavik, our sessions will be designed to help navigate what continues to be a challenging environment. Let me know if you have any questions. CLICK HERE to learn more. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary
The corn and bean markets both took it on the chin after Friday’s USDA report, but gains from earlier in the week held up, ensuring a higher weekly close for both. We’ll go over the numbers below, but in a nutshell, it was a bit bearish on corn and neutral to friendly on beans. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.
CORN
December 2025 corn made a new high for the move late in the week before selling off in a big way on Friday. December settled at $4.30 ¼, down 11 ¼. This was 12 ½ off the high and ¾ off the low. December rallied 3 cents for the week. The USDA report was known to be quite important due to the lack of an October report. While the average trade guess was 184 Bu./A., the USDA came out with 186, which was just a slight adjustment lower. Given they have Illinois at 221 Bu./A. and Iowa at 216 Bu./A., I’m struggling to see how, especially Iowa, comes in that high. With the growers we’ve talked to, it seems disease pressure was widespread enough to hurt yields a bit more than these numbers would indicate. However, the USDA has much more data than I do, so I hate to cast too much doubt on what they came up with. I personally believe this US corn yield is still plenty high. On the bright side, world stocks are set to drop this calendar year by 10 mmt! This is after a monster Safrinha crop out of Brazil and the biggest crop ever in the U.S. Demand is beyond impressive. We certainly need excellent weather everywhere to satisfy such strong demand this coming year.
DEMAND
Corn export demand reports should start back up as before this coming week. Ethanol grind was 4 mb lower, coming in at 104 MB. Stocks were down from a week ago. Basis was steady:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were up a bit on the week. While basis was steady in most places, the board posted a small rally, which likely kept cash prices steady to higher. On cash corn, it certainly seems like it will be an issue getting a big rally for old corn. Given the amount of supply out there, I struggle to see flat cash rallies without some serious help from the bean market. We’ll likely see a fair amount of hedge pressure on any moves higher, so rallies could be short-lived or shallow due to the amount of sales made when prices get a little life. I still like some corn ownership as we see how this all plays out. World and U.S. corn demand are at an all-time record, so any hiccups in global production will make corn good property. Rewarding any rally opportunities with incremental sales is still my preferred strategy while keeping some flex.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.67 ½, up 3 ½ cents. December 2026 spent some time above $4.70 this past week, but couldn’t maintain that level after the bearish WASDE report. I am still of the opinion this price of corn needs to move a bit higher to ensure the acreage we need; however, I have heard from a few in the seed industry that corn acres may not fall much, if any. Given the economics, it’s surprising but a person can certainly make corn work if they cut back on fertilizer and assume solid yields and/or a price rally. It’s risky, but we all know the grower loves to plant corn. My preferred strategy is still a flexible floor, getting that put as high as we can, which likely requires giving up some upside. Let us know if you want some specific advice. As always, my goal is to mitigate worst-case scenarios while maintaining flexibility to participate in a rally should it occur. CLICK HERE for more info on the AgMarket app https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market looked great before the USDA report. My guess is we’ll need help from beans if we want to see this corn market rally over the next few weeks. I like corn ownership longer-term.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans continued rallying up until the report. On Friday, January beans settled down 22 ½ at $11.24 ½. This was 27 ¾ off the high and 2 off the low. Beans rallied 7 ½ cents on the week. December meal settled 5.4 higher on the week at 322.5, while soy oil ended the week at 50.15, up .47. The USDA report wasn’t all that bearish on beans. With the yield coming down to 53 Bu./A. and ending stocks at 290 mb, it was thought to be neutral to friendly. However, we also received export sales data from the USDA, which showed China has only bought a few cargoes of beans, which is very disappointing for the trade. Big questions are abounding as China continues to buy Brazilian beans over the last few weeks. While from a world demand standpoint it’s not a bad deal, the USDA pointed out in its report that it thoughts U.S. bean exports were going to move lower. They lowered 50 mb on the balance sheet, which kept carry from dipping too low after the yield drop. While I want to get bullish beans, we need weather issues in South America and/or Chinese purchases. Without at least one of those, it could be tough to see this bean market move much higher. If we see one or both of those occur, another leg up in beans could be exciting to say the least.
DEMAND
We got the export sales report for who has been buying beans, but not the normal report we have always received on a weekly basis. Basis was soft.
CASH BEANS
Cash beans weren’t moving much this past week as far as bids were concerned. With some widening in areas, the board rally didn’t allow prices to change much. During the week, we saw the highest cash bids we’d seen in almost a year and a half. Hopefully, we’re seeing some producers reward this rally, at least incrementally. With beans, there’s always a chance it takes off like a rocket higher, but we’ve also seen it head the other way, which isn’t nearly as much fun. In my career, ignoring a dollar rally in beans hasn’t always paid off really well, so I’m still in the camp that we reward this rally with some incremental sales, especially for those who feel they need to get caught up.
2026 BEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $11.15, up 14 ½ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, I’m of the opinion that selling some fall-delivery beans and/or locking in some floors makes good sense. Most have relayed to me that if they sell beans at above $11 basis the board, it would be better sales than most of their 2025 beans. With that said, I would like to again have some flexibility if we choose to get aggressive. If we see some weather issues for the southern hemisphere and/or another year of low US bean acres, this bean market could get some serious life sooner or later. Selling at a profit is never a bad thing to do, but keeping some wiggle room on a good chunk of bushels would be wise in my opinion.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market had a nice week going on before Friday. I’m not sure the rally is over just yet, but we need some help from SA weather and/or the Chinese business to finally show up.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place.
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.