Good Morning!
It’s hard to believe, but it’s November already. With Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner, we’ll be writing 2026 on our checks before too long (for those of you who still write checks). Man, we’ve had to write several checks here lately. This has been a year where our repairs and maintenance have been sky-high, along with all our other costs being high. When it comes to fertilizer, many of you have reached out, sharing your plans for this fall. Given the feedback, it sounds like dry fertilizer tonnages might be as low as we’ve seen in many years. It shouldn’t be surprising to anyone, given how high phosphate has gotten at a time when commodity prices have been on the struggle bus for months. Fortunately, we’ve finally seen some life in the bean market, which should hopefully spill over into corn as we move forward. My kids are still playing softball, while basketball is just getting started. It’s a fun time in life but busy is certainly the norm. I appreciate the feedback and hope those of you who are still harvesting stay safe and Mother Nature treats you right.
My live podcast on Beck’s YouTube channel has been a learning process, so I appreciate those of you who have been tuning in and giving feedback. We’ve been going over using the App to figure out our break-evens and profit margins. CLICK HERE for more info on the AgMarket app.
The big news of the week was the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. In anticipation of that meeting, corn and soybeans posted rallies. While I stayed up Wednesday night to see what the result was, the news was sparse until morning. While we still don’t know all the specifics, it sounds promising. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.
CORN
December 2025 corn seemed a bit reluctant to follow beans but rallied a bit nonetheless. On Friday, December settled at $4.31 ½, up 1 ¼. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 5 off the low. December rallied 8 ¼ cents for the week. Harvest continues to plow on towards the finish line, with most of us estimating 80+% complete at this point. Yields have been quite variable, depending on the level of disease pressure, which has affected some areas significantly more than others. On the other hand, we’ve heard plenty of record yields from many areas, so it may take some time to sort out a final yield. It appears we’ll get a November crop report with an announcement on Friday. I’m still in the camp that yield moves lower for corn, but that we’ll have plenty of old-crop corn to go around. It’s an interesting year in that big questions about acreage for 2026 continue to evolve, especially with December 2026 not doing much while November 2026 established itself over $11. I still like corn ownership with some flexibility on sales.
DEMAND
Corn demand remains an unknown on the export side, although we get inspections to start the week, and they’ve been solid. Ethanol grind backed off 2.5 mb to 105 MB. Stocks were up as well. Basis was steady/better:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were up on the week. While basis in my area wasn’t doing much, for those of you who are seeing harvest wind down, we’ve seen some narrowing. When it comes to moving cash corn, most of us are sitting still once we’ve decided to store corn. I know there’s a ton of corn in bags this year, so it will likely be the first corn to move. Given basis narrowing in many areas, I assume some of that corn will get picked up before too awful long. My gut tells me basis doesn’t improve a great deal from here on, as we’ll have a steady flow of farmers selling through most of the next several months. Usage is strong for sure, but with 90 ma harvested, we’ve got enough corn to go around and then some. I know many of you have asked about re-ownership, and my opinion is we keep long through at least the May options and preferably out to July. If we’re going to see a corn rally, it’s likely due to a combination of that big usage, a smaller 2025 corn yield, and thoughts that 2026 corn acres could move quite a bit lower. The last piece to a potential rally would be staying long through the Brazilian Safrinha crop, and July calls would give us that opportunity. Again, rewarding the market on rallies and cash appreciation is smart, but I’d like to keep some flex if at all possible.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.63 ½, up 4. December 2026 still being lower than last year’s spring insurance price seems a bit low to me, especially with November 2026 settling over $11. With a ratio of 2.39/1 from beans to corn, it suggests bean acres will take away some corn acres this coming year. My opinion on this, with record demand, is that it could necessitate a rally for corn to secure the acres needed to satisfy demand. This is assuming November 2026 doesn’t move lower. We must hope that we see beans continue their strength, as it could be big-time support for a corn rally. I think the funds get some interest in owning corn sooner or later, once again, demand is a major feather in our cap. Rallies induced by demand have more staying power, as the only way to slow demand down is to see prices rally. I like stepping into some flexible floors on a move over $4.75. Again, my goal is to lock in worst-case scenarios with some flex to participate in a rally should it occur.
Corn Market Theme: The corn market is getting support from the bean rally. If it were to continue, we can expect corn to see good support. Keeping flex in your plan while respecting rallies with incremental sales seems like a wise move to me.
SOYBEANS
Beans continued the strong rally we’ve seen of late. On Friday, November beans settled up 8 ½ at $10.99 ¾. This was ¼ off the high and 14 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 38 cents on the week. January beans closed at $11.15 ¼. December meal settled 27.5 higher on the week at 321.6, while soy oil ended the week at 48.68, down 2.59. This past week, we finally saw the meeting happen between Presidents Trump and Xi. The specifics of the deal have been a bit in question, but they said we’d see China buy 12 mmt of beans “this season” and 25 mmt for the next three years ending in 2028. Many of us openly questioned if that means we have 12 mmt by the end of the 2025 calendar year and 25 mmt each of the next three calendar years, OR are we were talking about 12 mmt by the end of the marketing year next September. It appears from what Ag Secretary Rollins said on Friday that the deal is for 12 mmt to be purchased in the next three months. This is certainly supportive if it’s the case. It keeps US stocks at a fairly tight level as domestic usage continues to increase. If we want to compare the 25 mmt to recent years, it’s essentially an average number, while it’s not a huge number, it’s reportedly a “minimum” level they have agreed to purchase. As we look at this bean complex, there’s no doubt we have more life knowing that Chinese business is resuming. While it could be supportive in the long longer term, rewarding rallies with incremental sales at levels we can make work seems like a wise move to me.
DEMAND
As with corn, we again had no export sales announced due to the government shutdown. Inspections at the start of the week weren’t bad with no China in the mix. Basis was mixed.
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were much higher on the week. With the board rally, we’ve seen basis all over the place. Some areas are seeing it really widen out, while others, where harvest is wrapping up, have seen some narrowing. I know a ton of beans were stored this year on the farm and in bags. For those bags that need picked up first, doling out some bushels on these rallies would make some sense. While I like having some ownership of beans, selling at a profit is something many of us thought wouldn’t happen. If all of a sudden you have that opportunity, I don’t see what it would hurt to sell some increments now that cash prices are well over a dollar better than they were in the thick of harvest. For re-ownership, I like March calls or call spreads. We should know what the Brazilian soybean crop looks like by then and hopefully have plenty of export sales finally getting shipped out with this new agreement. If we see weather issues in South America, this bean market could certainly continue higher.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $11.06, up 25 ½ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, I’m now much more interested in managing some risk now that we’re above $11. I still want flex in the plan, so looking at a strategy where we have a floor close to $11 with a ceiling at $12 or above makes sense to me. Our team put another 10% on the books this week with a strategy like this. We feel it’s a solid strategy to lock in a worst-case scenario and sell beans at much better prices than what many of us sold some of these 2025 beans for. Longer-term, I’d be a little worried about sustaining a bean rally on 2026 beans, as it would make sense for us to see bean acres up quite a bit from 2025. If we happen to get a big crop out of South America along with big bean acres in the US, I struggle to see 2026 beans above the levels we currently see when we get out to harvest in 2026.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market has performed great of late. We’ve seen the best-selling opportunities we’ve seen all year. Incrementally rewarding rallies while maintaining some flexibility would be a smart way to proceed, in my opinion.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place.
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.