Good Morning!
I hope you had a great week. Around our place, we finished ripping some end-rows and got most of the equipment put away. The anhydrous is all on at this point, at least the farms we put on in the fall. We have some farms where the soil types aren’t the type I feel comfortable applying in the fall, so they go on in the spring. Our dry is all on at this point, and we’re having residual sprayed along with a biological we’re using this year. With us pulling back on dry fertilizer, using a biological that is designed to help with P and K uptake seemed like a good idea. I know many of you have a long way to go, so I’d like to clarify that we got done well ahead of schedule this year. With the super dry end to the growing season, everything was accelerated as we tried to get our crops out before they were excessively dry. Around home, we started basketball season this week with games on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and one on Saturday; nothing like coming out of the gate firing. We really enjoy it, but it's certainly a busy time. Keep me posted on how things are going for you. I appreciate the feedback.
My Beck’s YouTube live podcast continues to be a learning process, but we’re working out all the kinks. I appreciate the questions and feedback, as it gives me ideas of what you all think is important to discuss. Be sure to tune in on Tuesdays at 10:30 a.m. CST. HERE is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market lost a little ground after rallying earlier in the week, while beans held onto a small portion of the big gains from midweek. We still don’t have 100% details on the trade deal with China, so the market has been a bit bewildered on direction. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.
CORN
December 2025 corn continued to hit resistance on the charts and ended the week lower. On Friday, December settled at $4.27 ¼, down 1 ½. This was 3 ¼ off the high and ½ off the low. December lost 4 ¼ cents for the week. Harvest is not far from winding down, with most estimating we’re within 10% of being finished. We have a big report coming on Friday, as the USDA was called back to put this together. Some of you have likely had phone calls about what your crop was this past fall, so I hope you were honest. 😊 In all seriousness, it seems most of the yield estimates are coming in shy of the September estimate of 186.7 Bu./A. In fact, some surveys have shown a crop under 180, while others still report 186. It’s a wide gap when it comes to opinions on this 2025 crop. My opinion is still a 180+ crop, but just how much above it, I’m not sure. I hope I’m wrong and it comes in at a sub-180, as it would certainly be supportive to the market. At the same time, we have a huge feed usage number in the USDA's balance sheet currently, so getting our carry-out to a sub-2 bbu level is going to take a big trimming of yield while keeping demand strong. I liked the action in the corn market up until Thursday, but I don’t necessarily feel this market is over. If we get a bearish WASDE report, it will be tough to rally; but with all of the question marks about 2026, I still like corn ownership long term.
DEMAND
Corn demand remains an unknown on the export side, although we get inspections to start the week, and they continue to impress. Ethanol grind was strong, rising 108 MB. Stocks were up as well. Basis was steady/wider:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were down on the week. With the loss on the board and some areas seeing basis widen, cash-corn values were softening. Where harvest is wrapping up, we’re likely to see basis narrow, but after the bin doors are shut, it’s tough to expect basis to improve much. The way I’ve described it lately is that the easy basis gains are likely done for now. With all the corn that was bagged this year, those will likely be the first bushels to get picked up or delivered, so any pop on the board is likely to be met with plenty of farmer selling. Our best hope for a cash corn rally is the upcoming report on Friday, so we certainly hope to see the bulls get a chance to eat. We must remember, however, that there is plenty of corn around and these rallies could provide some basis weakening. I’d get offers in, especially with such a potentially volatile report on the horizon. I still like keeping ownership of corn, so those with cash needs may consider a cheap call spread out in the July contract. If we see lower U.S. acres for 2026 and/or South American issues with their corn crop, we could certainly get this market excited as world supply of corn, while ample, certainly isn’t burdensome.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.64, up ½ a penny. December 2026 is still lower than last year’s spring insurance price, so my thoughts on an aggressive campaign to sell isn’t in my head just yet. The ratio from beans to corn tells me we should see some buying interest on corn IF this bean price holds together. While $4.64 isn’t a terrible price, with input costs as high as they are, it’s tough for many growers to call it a win. I’m trying to stay patient here, but if you really want to get some protection in place, I’d suggest you consider a strategy with some flex in it. We’ve had growers doing three-ways where they’re locking in a floor of $4.70 or better basis the board. To do that, they are selling puts down closer to $4 and calls up at $5.25 to $5.50. I wouldn’t get super carried away on percentages when it comes to selling calls, but again, I’m not in the camp of getting really aggressive just yet anyway. As always, my goal is to lock in worst-case scenarios with some flex to participate in a rally should it occur.
Corn Market Theme: The corn market was a bit dead this past week, once the bean market faltered. IF we see beans continue their recent rally action, we could see corn follow along. Maybe we get a bullish USDA report this coming Friday as well. Being patient for now is the theme I’m sticking with.
BEANS
Beans continued rallying through mid-week but fell flat on Thursday before recuperating a bit on Friday. To close the week, January beans settled up 9 ½ at $11.17. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 9 off the low. Beans rallied 2 cents on the week. December meal settled 3.5 lower on the week at 317.1, while soy oil ended the week at 49.68, up 1.00. This past week, the bean market continued the rally based on the fervor from the Chinese trade deal along with thoughts that the Argentina bean and bean meal ports were going on strike. When that was resolved on Wednesday, along with reports China was still buying Brazilian beans, the bears came out of hibernation and sold with abandon as beans were down 26-28 cents on Thursday. Fortunately, we saw a little bounce on Friday, keeping the weekly close higher intact, but it certainly feels a bit shaky after such a strong rally. While we hope for a bullish USDA report on Friday, it may be tougher to see U.S. bean yields lower. Most in the industry are like our team at AgMarket in thinking this U.S. bean yield was a solid one. While we hope for China to buy a bunch of beans in short order, ignoring the rally we have already enjoyed might prove to be a tough decision if we get bearish USDA news and the Chinese business isn’t what we’ve all thought was going to happen. I still like rewarding rallies incrementally while keeping some upside open.
DEMAND
As with corn, we again had no export sales announced due to the government shutdown. Inspections at the start of the week have been strong, considering China is just now starting to buy some beans. Basis was soft.
CASH BEANS
Cash beans weren’t doing much on the week. While we saw a small rally on the board, in some markets the basis widened enough to make cash beans lower on the week. Given the market went up close to $11.40 four times this last week but couldn’t break through, it tells me we need something significant to keep pushing higher. That could be a friendly report for sure, but the most likely scenario for getting this market excited would be actual Chinese business. Since we don’t get a morning export report, they can fly under the radar on these sales as compared to normal. Therefore, it may be tough to see exactly what is going on. If we watch export inspections and they get stout for a few weeks, we should know China is coming in to buy. Hopefully that’s the case, but if not, at least we’re a dollar or so higher than what we were for the fall lows. Again, don’t be afraid to reward a rally-IF the trade deal falls through, we’ll be kicking ourselves for not selling more.
2026 BEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $11.00 ½, down 5 ½ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, I’ve seen several put floors in over the last several days. Most of these are flexible strategies like I talk about often. Our team at AgMarket made yet another sale with a flexible floor, locking in a $11 price basis on the board with the chance to participate in a rally up to $12. I like those strategies as they give us some peace of mind should this market turn sharply lower. While I don’t expect that, in this day and age, there’s no way of knowing just what might happen tomorrow or in the next week or two. I’d continue to look for opportunities to put in offers at profitable levels while keeping some flexibility in mind. This bean market, as it has proven time and time again, can move rather rapidly, so having some flex is worth strong consideration.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market looks like it’s taking a breather for now. Hopefully, this past week’s selloff is enough for now. Regardless, it’s created some nice opportunities. As always, incrementally rewarding the market while maintaining some flex is a good thing to consider.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.