Good Morning!
It’s been quite a week of harvest activity. I know many of you are going hard at it, especially in the areas where you’ve finally dried out. For us, we’re uncomfortably dry as we wrap up harvest. The last several days with temperatures in the 80s and no moisture in the ground, we’ve been cautious as to keep our machine blown off of as much fodder as possible. It’s been a year of extremes for sure. While we had just a day or so of a break from start to finish, I know those who have had to sit have likely been aggravated as can be. I know some of my guys are ready to get some rest when we finish. One of those guys is my dad, who works right alongside us each day. This past week was his 80th birthday-we didn’t even get to celebrate much-of course he didn’t really want to while we were trying to finish up. We’ll get a chance over the weekend. Keep me posted on harvest. mbennett@agmarket.net.
For the podcast this week, I was in the combine talking about the gut-punch of a report the USDA delivered on Friday. USDA Report Breakdown: 181.2 Corn Yield, Nebraska Revisions & Market Outlook
The corn market got smoked on Friday’s USDA report, which ensured a loss on the week, while beans actually posted a rally. While the report shocked the market with a big corn yield, beans etched slightly higher which was viewed as supportive. More on that below. Outside markets likely provided a positive bias:
CORN
December ‘26 corn again got hammered on the report news after a back-and-forth week. On Friday, Dec settled at $4.79 ¾, down 20 ½. This was 25 off the high and 9 ½ off the low. Dec lost 18 cents for the week-and actually traded down-the-limit for awhile on Friday. The COT report showed funds sold 60k contracts, reducing their long to 317k. This was as of Tuesday’s close, and I can only assume they sold a ton of corn on Friday. Technically, the corn market saw a ton of damage on Friday, moving below all moving average before settling at the 200-day. It will be important to see if that holds this coming week. The report showed yields jumping to 181.2, which was a 2.7 bu/ac increase from the September number of 178.5. Must of the increase was balanced on a bigger Nebraska crop, which jumped 11 bu to 188, while Illinois was trimmed just a bushel to 208. As far as the crop goes, we’ve heard solid yields out of Nebraska, so it’s entirely possible that crop is better than expected. However, with Iowa staying at a 219 bu/ac crop after the weather this past month, I was a bit surprised. Particularly in Illinois it seems yields have been disappointing to say the least. As I’ve said many times, it’s going to take some time to sort out final yield, and we may not agree with USDA-but that number is the gospel for now. It’s what traders are going to trade. Unfortunately, this ballooned stocks to 1.849 bbu, up 282 mbu from a month ago. The timing of this report stinks with many trying to decide whether to sell or store bushels not contracted. However, it doesn’t change my thoughts that corn ownership will be desirable moving forward. More on what we might consider below.
DEMAND
Corn demand was off a bit this past week. Exports came in at 769k, so it was up over 200k from a week ago. Ethanol production increased modestly to 1,053 mbpd, while stocks were down again. Basis was mixed depending on location and harvest activity:
• My local basis: 32 under Dec (no change)
• Decatur: option the Dec (narrowed 15 cents)
• St. Louis River: 13 under Dec (narrowed 12 cents)
CASH CORN
Cash prices lost some ground this last week but not as much in areas where basis improved. While the board lost 18 cents, some areas saw cash within a nickel of a week ago. We saw basis improve in many areas where harvest is already getting close to complete as some originators try to get the final bushels stowed away. If you’re in an area where harvest is just getting started, basis is likely as wide as it may get, so those bushels going across the scale might need split up in how they’re approached. While I’m a fan of re-ownership, it appears basis is likely to narrow a fair bit so some of the storage costs could be off-set by basis alone. A person can also sell across the scale, get some cash to pay bills and consider re-ownership. There’s no way to know which strategy will work best, so splitting up the risk makes sense. More on the report-I found it interesting that USDA posted a higher state ear count for Nebraska overall-upon further inspection, it appears both irrigated and non-irrigated ear counts were lower?! An article written by Jim Wiesemeier addressed this post-report, so it will be interesting how that plays out. With ear counts lower this year, ear weights are higher, which is interesting as well given the heat we experienced in July. Call me crazy, but I think the October number is too high. Either way, demand is likely to improve with lower prices, and getting the grower to plant the acreage needed in 2027 may be a tall order given profitability. I’m not personally bearish long-term, but the corn market has a different, more bearish set of numbers to work with than we’ve seen in awhile. Navigating the selling of remaining bushels will be a tall order-so make sure and reach out if you’d like some help.
2027 CORN
December 2027 corn ended the week at $5.11 ¾, down 4 ¾ for the week. Dec27 didn’t lose near as much ground once again. A big reason for this is again some thoughts on a need for corn acres this coming year. With a wheat insurance price at $7.54, it’s tough to assume wheat acres won’t increase a fair bit-especially with the western-corn-belt getting ample rain of late. The combined 183.5 million acres for corn and soybeans in 2026 is likely to take a hit for 2027-and beans can’t afford to lose many acres. Therefore, I’m not too keen on getting aggressive on 2027 corn sales just yet until we see how this plays out. Having input costs off-set is always something I like to manage on my farm by selling some corn, but other than those bushels, I believe I’ll give it some time. A person wanting to manage risk and make sales, if profitable, is tough to argue with. I’d just keep some flexibility while keeping close tabs on profitability. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market took a hit again thanks to the USDA report. With harvest in full-swing, it may be tough to expect a rally just yet given this new set of numbers.
BEANS
Beans performed much better than corn as the report didn’t offer near the bearish tone. On Friday, November beans settled at $12.92, up 4 ½. This was 7 ¼ off the high and 22 ¼ off the low. Beans rallied 13 ¾ cents on the week. October meal rallied 24 on the week at 368.7, while soy oil was down .49, settling at 67.72. The COT report showed funds bought 10k contracts, increasing their long to 252k by Tuesday’s close. From a technical standpoint, the bean market rallied back towards the recent downtrend, bouncing off the 50-day moving average on report day. With the report showing bean yields increasing from 52.8 to 53.1, they also bumped up exports 10 mb. The net result was ending stocks being projected at 315 mb, just a 5 mb increase. While I was of the opinion corn yield should move lower, I could have understood bean yields moving higher. It seems the anecdotal reports are strong bean yields in many areas. It seems to me bean yields could continue ot grow from here. Given strong demand, we need those yields, so it doesn’t necessarily make me bearish by any means. Again, we need big soybean production given strong world demand. With the super El Nino causing dryness in South America in the north and wetter conditions in the south, it’s tough to want to be bearish at this point. Managing risk when offered the best fall prices for beans we’ve seen in years makes sense though, so let us know if you need some help navigating these volatile prices.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were down sharply at 549k, about half of a week ago levels. Basis was steady to improved:
• My local beans: 35 under the Nov (narrowed 5 cents)
• Decatur: 15 under the Nov (no change)
• River: 3 over the Nov (no change)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were much higher on the week. With soybean harvest finishing in some areas while just getting started in others, bean basis is all over the place. The report essentially showed that bigger production doesn’t necessarily mean bigger stocks as demand continues to roll along. For growers trying to figure out what to do with these beans, I feel similar to corn in that splitting up the risk makes sense. With some areas seeing wide basis levels as we harvest, basis is likely to improve once the gut-slot of harvest has passed. As always, I like a flexible strategy on these beans. While there’s nothing wrong with a person simply selling beans at a profitable level and calling it a good year, having some ownership might make good sense considering this strong demand and uncertain weather for the southern hemisphere.
2027 BEANS
Nov 2027 beans settled at $12.63 ¼, up 10 cents on the week. New-crop beans again performed similarly to Dec27 corn as we likely see those two battling for acres over the coming months. With a tight stocks situation, one must realize we planted 5.7 million more acres in 2026 than 2025-and currently show a record yield. Yet bean stocks/use is 6.9%. World stocks are forecasted to be lower for this year as well-after a record crop in South America and in the US as well. Bean demand is increasing, which necessitates we see increases in production to keep pace with the demand. Given the uncertainties with this El Nino situation, record production isn’t something we can necessarily count on just yet in South America this coming year. As with corn, I see no issue in selling some beans if you can lock in profitability, but keeping some flexibility makes sense. Personally, I see no reason to get terribly aggressive just yet, but that’s just my opinion.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market found some footing. With the report neutral, it appears beans are stable for the time being.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.