Good Morning!
It’s hard to believe, but October is halfway over. With harvest in full swing in some places and finishing up in others, it’s been a fast pace for sure. We finished on Monday morning and are now contemplating whether we work ground or not. It’s bone dry, so we’ve been up in the air on how we want to go about it. A couple of local guys have been in-line ripping some bean stubble, and I’ve heard there are no points to be found as they’re going through them faster than they can keep them in stock. We were lucky and didn’t have a combine fire this fall, but there were plenty in our area; there’s no doubt this has been the driest fall of my career. We’ve settled on a fertilizer plan, and as I’ve said a few times, we’re backing off on dry. In fairness, our fertility is in great shape, so dipping into our savings account isn’t going to kill us this one year. My hope is that we figure something out in the next year or so to get these P and K prices to a more palatable level. Keep the correspondence coming and be safe! For more information on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets were quiet with small gains for corn and small losses for beans. With the back-and-forth between the US and China on trade/tariffs and the on/off nature of the meeting, the markets were off on Friday and have settled in some this week. The weather in the US is mostly favorable for harvest, while the weather in Brazil has been conducive to a fast planting pace. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market was lower for much of the session before settling close to the highs. On Tuesday, December corn closed 2 ¼ higher at $4.13. This was ½ off the high and 3 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.13 mmt, which were below expectations and one of the lower numbers we’ve seen in a while. While still strong historically, there’s no doubt that with a lofty USDA goal, we need to see impressive numbers on the regular. There are still no crop progress conditions released due to the government shutdown. While estimates are still being submitted on how far along the harvest progress is, we won’t get an official number until the shutdown is in the rearview mirror. The average estimate is 45% down from 47% last year. This corn market has seen some pressure of late, but buying surfaced on Tuesday, supporting us from making lows we haven’t seen in a few weeks. While it’s tough to be bullish given what we know is a big crop overall, demand remains strong, and thoughts of reduced acreage in 2026 has to be on the mind of the trade sooner or later. I still like selling this corn and re-owning it versus storing it commercially. The best route is to store at home in my opinion, as there is carry in the market and basis is likely to improve. If you are storing because of the carry, you may talk to one of us about helping you lock that carry in while leaving some upside room for this market should we get a rally. December 2026 corn settled ¼ higher on Tuesday at $4.52 ½.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were lower for most of the session and closed in the middle of the range. November beans were down 1 ¼ on Tuesday at $10.06 ½. This was 3 ¼ off the high and 5 ½ off the low. Soybean meal was up .2 at 274.3, while soy oil was down .03 at 50.57. The weekly inspections showed beans at 994k, which is above expectations. As with corn, we still have no crop conditions or harvest progress, but the trade estimates that harvest is 60% complete versus 67% a year ago. While I know people in our part of the world have wiped them out quickly, where some of you had more rain in August and farther north, I know there’s a ton of beans to cut yet. This bean market boils down to a couple of things at this point. One is, of course, the trade deal. If we don’t get a favorable trade deal, we’d better hope we get most of the other business in the world export deals as there could technically be enough to see us get close to the USDA goal. The other topic is, of course, South American weather. If we see any weather issues, there’s no doubt we could get this bean market fired up. In the event it’s another big crop, it could be tough sledding for a bit, especially as most expect US bean acres in 2026 to be a fair bit higher. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 3 ¼ lower at $10.54 ¾.
Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
815-665-0462
@chief321