October 18th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week has been a good one. As I said previously, we wrapped up harvest on Monday, and we’ve been busy getting things cleaned up to put away. We’re also doing some vertical tillage on corn stalks, but staying away from any ripping just yet due to the ground being as hard as an airport runway. I don’t have a farm that’s had even an inch of rain since July 25, but the forecast is showing a good shot of moisture for us over this weekend. Hopefully, we’ll get lucky and get a good soaker. Heck, about all we’ll do with an inch of rain is fill in the cracks in the ground. Harvest is still going locally, but I’d say within a few days, every grower in this area will be done. I’ve heard from many of you who are slugging it out yet, and with yield reports all over the board, I am still in the camp that we will see corn back off a shade from previous USDA reports. Keep me posted on how things are going for you and how yields are versus expectations. Stay safe.

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The corn and bean markets were both higher on the week, which is saying something with us being in the middle of harvest. We certainly have a ton of grain being sold, so it’s safe to say there’s a fair amount of buying coming in to offset that pressure. Outside markets were quite active during the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.

• The US Dollar was down .507 at 98.205
• December crude oil was down 1.33 at 57.15
• The DOW was up 761 points at 45,467    

CORN

December 2025 corn saw some buying come in this past week. On Friday, December settled at $4.22 ¾, up ¾. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. December rallied 9 ¾ cents for the week. Harvest continues to roll on, with hedge pressure no doubt a feature. What was interesting was the amount of buying it took to offset those cash sales. While I’m sure happy we saw some buying come in, I wouldn’t plan on corn rallying a ton in the short-term. If we see more up in this market, it’s likely to be met with some basis weakening. When looking at old crop, even if this yield works lower, demand is likely to have the air let out of it as well moving ahead. I still maintain the best chance for a corn rally is when we start talking about 2026. Given these input costs and the grower in a strained financial situation, I struggle to see corn acres within 3 or 4 million acres of this 2025 growing season. The other thing that could give us a boost is, of course, a trade deal with China and/or weather issues in Brazil. If we see beans rally, it would certainly support this corn market by way of spillover support, and especially the thought that the grower might increase bean acres by a decent amount if we see some sort of rally.

DEMAND

Corn demand is still unknown on the export side. We still have no export sales report due to the shutdown. Ethanol grind jumped a bit to just under 104 MB. Stocks were again a shade lower. Basis was mostly steady:

• My local basis: 30 under December (no change)
• Decatur: 13 under the December (no change)
• St. Louis River: 14 over December (3 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were a bit improved on the week. With the rally on the board, basis held steady. However, I would assume basis improvements would be more centered around those areas that are getting close to the end of harvest or have seen it finish. Where harvest is still going and especially where yields are big, basis could be shaky for a while longer. I’ve heard of areas where rain was more abundant that are getting full, so the basis is likely to widen in those areas. For growers who are forced to go to town, I’m still not a fan of paying for commercial storage. I’d rather be in a position to participate in a rally on paper and get the money in hand. Given this is a market with carry, it gives us a good opportunity on those bushels at home to hedge that carry. We also must consider what a market with carry typically does moving forward. If December corn goes off the board at $4.20, March is likely to take a look at $4.20 as well, and so on. So, if we want ownership, while we’ll give up basis appreciation on those commercially stored bushels, we certainly won’t get a push for that corn if it’s in their facility. And…if the corn is owned with calls or call spreads, our investment to own that corn is quantified. We’ll owe for storage whether the market rallies or not. So, keep these things in mind as you spread your risk out and lock in worst-case scenarios.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.57 ½, up 4 ¼. December 2026 worked back up towards $4.60 on the week but closed a bit below. While it was a step in the right direction, I struggle to get too aggressive in locking stuff in just yet. I generally like to sell some corn as we buy fertilizer, but given I’m backing off on fertilizer personally, I don’t see as big an urgency to sell corn when we can’t find much, if any, black ink. I’d like to see December work back above this past year’s crop insurance price of $4.70 before getting excited about risk management, but that’s just my personal thought. If we can buy some puts at $4.80 or better, which would be accentuated by selling a call up at $5.50 or so for a net cost of 15-ish cents, I will be looking to start locking in some worst-case scenarios for 2026.

Corn Market Theme: The corn market found some buying this past week, but I wouldn’t expect cash prices to rally much just yet. Keep your worst-case scenarios at the top of mind as you get your old and new crop strategies in place.

SOYBEANS

Beans also saw some buying come in after a couple of crummy weeks. On Friday, November beans settled up 8 ¾ at $10.19 ½. This was 2 off the high and 9 off the low. Beans rallied 12 ¾ cents on the week. December meal settled 6 higher on the week at 281, while soy oil ended the week at 51.13, up 1.16. This past week, the market came in with a little less concern over the US/Chinese trade situation as the Trump team tried to walk back the rhetoric a bit. While we aren’t celebrating by any means, it appears the trade talks are still on for the end of the month. The issue, of course, is how much of the US shipping window we continue to lose as China has yet to buy any US beans. This US crop looks to be close to the USDA’s yield of above 53 in my opinion. Given the yields we continue to hear, I’d say beans have a better shot at a yield closer to the USDA than corn does. My best guess on beans is we’ll have a good chunk of volatility if and when we see a trade deal, so having offers in place on both old and new beans might not be a bad idea. 

DEMAND

As with corn, we had no export sales announced this past week due to the government shutdown. Basis was improving.

• My local beans: 35 under November (no change)
• Decatur: 5 over the November (5 cents improved)
• River: 9 over the November (3 cents wider)

CASH SOYBEANS

Cash beans again gained value on the week. With the board rallying and basis holding steady in many areas, we saw cash prices tick up. As with corn, there’s a ton of harvest still going, and in those areas, basis isn’t likely to be all that great. However, for bushels that have to go to town, commercial storage is very expensive. While we expect beans to have some life IF we get a trade deal at some point and/or Brazil has any weather issues, there are certainly no guarantees. Given Brazil is planting more beans as they always do, and the US grower looks to plant more beans in 2026, we have to be ready for marketing opportunities should they arise. I’d have some offers on any stored beans, and if you choose to sell them across the scale, getting some ownership with calls or call spreads would be a consideration. I personally like the March call spreads, as we should know the trade deal status and Brazilian weather by the time those go off the board. For bushels stored at home, I’m still a big proponent of getting that carry locked in for those beans. If we’re putting them in the bin due to carry, we should consider doing something about it. Overall, my thoughts on beans have a decent range, depending on how the trade deal and Brazilian weather go. Locking in income can be accomplished if we are proactive.  

2026 SOYBEANS

November 2026 beans settled at $10.64 ¼, up 7 ½ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, I’d like to see a run back towards $11 to do any hedging, but even at those levels, it’s tough for some of us to make it work without assuming huge yields. On the flip side, if we can raise as good of beans as we did in 2025 with no August rain, I suppose it’s safe to assume a decent yield with these excellent genetics we’re planting. If we can rally back towards $11 for whatever reason, for those who are going heavy beans, it makes plenty of sense to hedge off some risk. Heck, maybe we do it above $10.80. What it all boils down to is where you can lock in some profit margins. It’s different for everyone, so make sure you figure out your break-even points and get a marketing plan in place. If you need help putting one together, make sure to get ahold of us.

Soybean Market Theme: The bean market has a pulse. I wouldn’t get too bulled up just yet, but hopefully we can get a trade deal and see more life here. No one knows what South American weather will be, but if they have issues, you can rest assured the market will pay attention.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.