Good Morning!
We are trying to get our beans cut, and we aren’t far from being done. The weather has been ideal, except for the fact that it's been so hot. Fortunately, we haven’t had field fires personally, but I’ve seen several that have. Once we get the beans wrapped up, we’ll have ten days of corn, if all goes well, and we can get rid of it. The beans that were planted later are 20+ lower than the ones planted in April. To be fair, they’re on lighter ground, but there’s no doubt the later-planted beans were hit a little harder by the dry finish. The corn that we’ve been in has been pretty good on the black ground. The light ground treated with fungicide has held up pretty well, but most of our corn is APH or below, something we expected. In fairness, yields are better than what I thought we’d see for both corn and beans, considering the flash drought; however, there are producers sending messages every day who are going to collect crop insurance. It’s all over the place, but my gut tells me yields need to scale back when IF/when we see the October USDA report. I appreciate all of the feedback. Stay safe out there. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets both struggled on Tuesday after a September Stocks report that was plenty bearish when considering corn. While both corn and beans moved lower, I was a bit surprised corn didn’t get hit harder than it did. It’s hard to keep writing this, but we have to secure a trade deal with China in short order; without one, these markets will struggle, even if we see lower yields. Outside markets should have provided a mixed/friendly bias:
CORN
The corn market lost ground on Tuesday, as selling picked up after the stocks report hit. December corn closed 6 lower at $4.15 ½. This was 6 off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.527 mmt, which was above expectations and a sign of excellent export business continuing. Good/excellent stayed the same at 66%, while the weekly crop progress report shows 18% harvested as compared to 19% for the five-year average. The September 30 Stocks report showed a final carry-out at 1.532 bbu, which was 200 mb more than the average trade estimate and above what the USDA had reported carry out to end up being. They came up with 316k acres more for 2024, which I find quite interesting. We received the final report last January, but when it’s all said and done, the actual final is always this September number. As I mentioned recently, we expected this number to be bearish, so I’m not entirely surprised. I have to think the October USDA report brings corn yield down, but it may be tough to bring it low enough to get us bullish, especially old-crop corn. I still think there’s a chance we flip the narrative when we start looking at next year’s situation, considering how tough it is at these prices and fertilizer sky-high, December 2026 corn settled 2 ¼ lower on Tuesday at $4.59.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans also moved lower on Tuesday. November beans were down 8 ¾ on Tuesday at $10.01 ¾. This was 7 ½ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. Soybean meal was down 2.4 at 265.7, while soy oil was down .24 at 48.87. The weekly inspections showed beans at 594k, which was below expectations, as we continue to see poor shipments with no Chinese business present. The good/excellent rating came in at 62%, which was a 1% increase from a week ago. The report showed that 19% of the crop was harvested versus 20% on average. The stocks report for beans showed final stocks at 316 mb versus the average trade guess at 325 mb. While this is somewhat supportive, the bean market couldn’t take advantage, especially with corn moving lower. The US bean situation is tight, but with the world showing ample stocks and big acres likely in both the northern and southern hemispheres in 2026, it seems unlikely this bean market can rally without a weather issue in South America and/or a Chinese trade deal. In the absence of those, bean prices are unlikely to post any sizable rally. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 9 ½ lower at $10.54.
Matt Bennett
815-665-0462